|
|
Updated: 2016 JAN 06, 16:48 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Feb 08 UT, the 133 km diameter asteroid (344) Desiderata will occult a 9.4 mag star in the constellation Ursa Major for observers along a south-to-north path across Western Australia passing near Ravensthorpe, Hyden, Merridin and Carnarvon.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.4 mag to 12.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
124 19 19 -45 0 0 17 45 49 15 6 -25 125 39 16 122 58 5 126 9 21 122 26 52
123 59 38 -44 0 0 17 45 53 16 6 -26 125 18 33 122 39 27 125 48 14 122 8 38
123 38 44 -43 0 0 17 45 57 17 7 -27 124 56 43 122 19 31 125 26 2 121 49 4
123 16 40 -42 0 0 17 46 2 18 7 -28 124 33 46 121 58 21 125 2 46 121 28 14
122 53 27 -41 0 0 17 46 6 19 7 -29 124 9 45 121 35 56 124 38 27 121 6 9
122 29 6 -40 0 0 17 46 11 20 8 -30 123 44 40 121 12 19 124 13 5 120 42 49
122 3 37 -39 0 0 17 46 16 21 8 -31 123 18 31 120 47 31 123 46 41 120 18 15
121 37 1 -38 0 0 17 46 21 22 9 -32 122 51 19 120 21 31 123 19 15 119 52 29
121 9 18 -37 0 0 17 46 27 23 9 -33 122 23 4 119 54 20 122 50 48 119 25 31
120 40 29 -36 0 0 17 46 33 24 10 -34 121 53 46 119 25 59 122 21 19 118 57 21
120 10 33 -35 0 0 17 46 39 25 10 -35 121 23 25 118 56 27 121 50 48 118 27 58
119 39 29 -34 0 0 17 46 45 26 11 -37 120 51 59 118 25 44 121 19 15 117 57 23
119 7 17 -33 0 0 17 46 52 27 11 -38 120 19 30 117 53 49 120 46 38 117 25 34
118 33 56 -32 0 0 17 46 59 27 12 -39 119 45 55 117 20 42 120 12 57 116 52 31
117 59 25 -31 0 0 17 47 6 28 13 -40 119 11 13 116 46 20 119 38 11 116 18 13
117 23 42 -30 0 0 17 47 13 29 13 -41 118 35 23 116 10 44 119 2 19 115 42 38
116 46 47 -29 0 0 17 47 21 30 14 -42 117 58 24 115 33 50 118 25 18 115 5 45
116 8 36 -28 0 0 17 47 29 31 15 -43 117 20 14 114 55 38 117 47 7 114 27 31
115 29 8 -27 0 0 17 47 37 32 15 -44 116 40 51 114 16 4 117 7 45 113 47 55
114 48 21 -26 0 0 17 47 46 33 16 -45 116 0 11 113 35 6 116 27 9 113 6 53
114 6 12 -25 0 0 17 47 54 33 17 -47 115 18 14 112 52 42 115 45 15 112 24 22
113 22 37 -24 0 0 17 48 3 34 18 -48 114 34 56 112 8 48 115 2 2 111 40 20
112 37 33 -23 0 0 17 48 13 35 19 -49 113 50 13 111 23 20 114 17 26 110 54 41
111 50 55 -22 0 0 17 48 22 36 20 -50 113 4 1 110 36 13 113 31 24 110 7 22
111 2 40 -21 0 0 17 48 32 36 21 -51 112 16 17 109 47 23 112 43 51 109 18 18
110 12 43 -20 0 0 17 48 42 37 22 -53 111 26 56 108 56 44 111 54 43 108 27 22
109 20 57 -19 0 0 17 48 53 37 23 -54 110 35 53 108 4 10 111 3 54 107 34 29
108 27 16 -18 0 0 17 49 4 38 24 -55 109 43 1 107 9 34 110 11 20 106 39 30
107 31 32 -17 0 0 17 49 15 39 25 -56 108 48 14 106 12 47 109 16 53 105 42 17
106 33 38 -16 0 0 17 49 27 39 27 -57 107 51 24 105 13 40 108 20 26 104 42 40
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jan 7.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]