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Updated: 2016 JAN 17, 13:54 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Feb 25 UT, the 97 km diameter asteroid (373) Melusina will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across Western Australia, passing near Karratha, Southern Cross and Ravensthorpe.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.7 mag to 14.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
122 27 18 -42 0 0 12 37 2 6 348 -21 121 50 55 123 3 43 121 25 27 123 29 13
122 9 18 -41 0 0 12 37 0 7 348 -21 121 33 29 122 45 9 121 8 24 123 10 14
121 51 39 -40 0 0 12 36 59 8 348 -21 121 16 22 122 26 57 120 51 40 122 51 40
121 34 19 -39 0 0 12 36 57 9 349 -22 120 59 33 122 9 7 120 35 12 122 33 28
121 17 18 -38 0 0 12 36 55 10 349 -22 120 43 0 121 51 36 120 19 0 122 15 37
121 0 33 -37 0 0 12 36 53 11 349 -22 120 26 43 121 34 23 120 3 2 121 58 5
120 44 4 -36 0 0 12 36 50 12 349 -23 120 10 40 121 17 28 119 47 17 121 40 51
120 27 49 -35 0 0 12 36 47 13 349 -23 119 54 51 121 0 49 119 31 45 121 23 54
120 11 49 -34 0 0 12 36 44 14 350 -23 119 39 13 120 44 24 119 16 25 121 7 13
119 56 0 -33 0 0 12 36 41 15 350 -23 119 23 47 120 28 13 119 1 14 120 50 46
119 40 24 -32 0 0 12 36 38 16 350 -24 119 8 32 120 12 15 118 46 14 120 34 33
119 24 57 -31 0 0 12 36 34 17 350 -24 118 53 26 119 56 28 118 31 22 120 18 32
119 9 41 -30 0 0 12 36 30 18 350 -24 118 38 29 119 40 53 118 16 39 120 2 43
118 54 34 -29 0 0 12 36 26 19 350 -25 118 23 41 119 25 27 118 2 3 119 47 5
118 39 35 -28 0 0 12 36 22 20 350 -25 118 8 59 119 10 11 117 47 33 119 31 36
118 24 44 -27 0 0 12 36 17 21 351 -25 117 54 24 118 55 3 117 33 10 119 16 17
118 9 59 -26 0 0 12 36 12 22 351 -25 117 39 55 118 40 3 117 18 51 119 1 5
117 55 21 -25 0 0 12 36 7 23 351 -25 117 25 31 118 25 10 117 4 38 118 46 2
117 40 47 -24 0 0 12 36 2 24 351 -26 117 11 12 118 10 23 116 50 28 118 31 5
117 26 19 -23 0 0 12 35 56 25 351 -26 116 56 56 117 55 41 116 36 22 118 16 14
117 11 54 -22 0 0 12 35 51 26 351 -26 116 42 44 117 41 4 116 22 18 118 1 28
116 57 33 -21 0 0 12 35 45 27 351 -26 116 28 35 117 26 31 116 8 17 117 46 47
116 43 15 -20 0 0 12 35 39 28 352 -26 116 14 27 117 12 2 115 54 17 117 32 11
116 28 59 -19 0 0 12 35 32 29 352 -26 116 0 21 116 57 36 115 40 18 117 17 37
116 14 45 -18 0 0 12 35 26 30 352 -27 115 46 16 116 43 12 115 26 20 117 3 6
116 0 31 -17 0 0 12 35 19 31 352 -27 115 32 12 116 28 49 115 12 21 116 48 37
115 46 18 -16 0 0 12 35 12 32 352 -27 115 18 7 116 14 28 114 58 22 116 34 10
115 32 4 -15 0 0 12 35 5 33 352 -27 115 4 1 116 0 7 114 44 21 116 19 44
115 17 50 -14 0 0 12 34 57 34 353 -27 114 49 53 115 45 45 114 30 19 116 5 18
115 3 34 -13 0 0 12 34 50 35 353 -27 114 35 44 115 31 23 114 16 14 115 50 51
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jan 17.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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