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Updated: 2015 OCT 04, 23:11 UT
Event Rank : 63
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Mar 16 UT, the 185 km diameter asteroid (911) Agamemnon will occult a 10.3 mag star in the constellation Norma for observers along a path across Western Australia, from Bunbury to Wyndham, including Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.6 mag to 15.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
129 35 39 - 6 0 0 17 16 42 42 147 -62 128 29 40 130 40 38 126 19 56 132 42 51
129 21 55 - 7 0 0 17 16 51 43 146 -62 128 15 38 130 27 13 126 5 14 132 29 58
129 7 16 - 8 0 0 17 16 59 43 146 -62 128 0 37 130 12 53 125 49 29 132 16 15
128 51 39 - 9 0 0 17 17 8 44 145 -62 127 44 36 129 57 38 125 32 39 132 1 40
128 35 2 -10 0 0 17 17 17 45 144 -62 127 27 34 129 41 27 125 14 43 131 46 12
128 17 25 -11 0 0 17 17 26 45 144 -62 127 9 28 129 24 17 124 55 38 131 29 51
127 58 46 -12 0 0 17 17 35 46 143 -62 126 50 17 129 6 7 124 35 22 131 12 34
127 39 2 -13 0 0 17 17 44 47 142 -61 126 30 0 128 46 56 124 13 53 130 54 20
127 18 12 -14 0 0 17 17 54 47 141 -61 126 8 32 128 26 40 123 51 8 130 35 7
126 56 13 -15 0 0 17 18 4 48 140 -61 125 45 53 128 5 19 123 27 5 130 14 54
126 33 2 -16 0 0 17 18 13 48 139 -61 125 21 59 127 42 50 123 1 40 129 53 38
126 8 37 -17 0 0 17 18 23 49 139 -60 124 56 47 127 19 9 122 34 49 129 31 16
125 42 55 -18 0 0 17 18 33 49 138 -60 124 30 14 126 54 15 122 6 29 129 7 46
125 15 51 -19 0 0 17 18 43 50 137 -60 124 2 15 126 28 3 121 36 35 128 43 6
124 47 23 -20 0 0 17 18 54 50 136 -59 123 32 48 126 0 30 121 5 2 128 17 12
124 17 26 -21 0 0 17 19 4 51 134 -59 123 1 47 125 31 34 120 31 46 127 50 2
123 45 55 -22 0 0 17 19 15 51 133 -59 122 29 7 125 1 8 119 56 39 127 21 30
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
122 0 0 -25 1 49 17 19 47 52 130 -57 -22 51 0 -27 5 32 -18 13 17 -30 47 19
121 0 0 -26 33 25 17 20 5 52 128 -57 -24 29 26 -28 31 19 -20 9 18 -32 3 56
120 0 0 -27 58 9 17 20 21 52 126 -56 -26 0 1 -29 51 0 -21 54 25 -33 15 31
119 0 0 -29 16 51 17 20 36 52 125 -55 -27 23 48 -31 5 16 -23 30 28 -34 22 34
118 0 0 -30 30 11 17 20 50 52 123 -55 -28 41 34 -32 14 40 -24 58 48 -35 25 30
117 0 0 -31 38 43 17 21 4 52 122 -54 -29 54 2 -33 19 40 -26 20 26 -36 24 40
116 0 0 -32 42 53 17 21 17 52 121 -53 -31 1 43 -34 20 41 -27 36 11 -37 20 23
115 0 0 -33 43 6 17 21 30 52 120 -53 -32 5 6 -35 18 2 -28 46 43 -38 12 54
114 0 0 -34 39 42 17 21 42 52 119 -52 -33 4 33 -36 12 2 -29 52 35 -39 2 28
113 0 0 -35 32 59 17 21 54 52 118 -52 -34 0 26 -37 2 56 -30 54 13 -39 49 18
112 0 0 -36 23 11 17 22 5 51 117 -51 -34 53 0 -37 50 58 -31 52 0 -40 33 35
Uncertainty in time = +/- 23 secs
Prediction of 2016 Feb 16.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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