|
|
Updated: 2016 APR 26, 13:49 UT
Event Rank : 51
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 May 19 UT, the 23 km diameter asteroid (1715) Salli will occult a 9.1 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a north-to-south path across Australia, passing near Alice Springs, Port Pirie and Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.10 mag to 15.20 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
129 21 26 - 8 43 51 12 49 1 67 304 -52 129 27 49 - 8 42 33 129 15 3 - 8 45 10 129 45 28 - 8 38 57 128 57 27 - 8 48 46 -0.29
129 41 14 -10 8 23 12 49 24 66 306 -53 129 47 39 -10 7 4 129 34 49 -10 9 42 130 5 23 -10 3 28 129 17 9 -10 13 19 -0.29
130 2 6 -11 33 29 12 49 46 65 308 -54 130 8 33 -11 32 10 129 55 39 -11 34 48 130 26 22 -11 28 33 129 37 53 -11 38 26 -0.30
130 24 7 -12 59 13 12 50 8 63 310 -55 130 30 37 -12 57 54 130 17 38 -13 0 32 130 48 32 -12 54 16 129 59 45 -13 4 11 -0.30
130 47 25 -14 25 39 12 50 30 62 311 -55 130 53 57 -14 24 19 130 40 53 -14 26 59 131 12 0 -14 20 40 130 22 53 -14 30 39 -0.30
131 12 5 -15 52 52 12 50 53 61 312 -56 131 18 40 -15 51 32 131 5 30 -15 54 12 131 36 51 -15 47 52 130 47 21 -15 57 53 -0.30
131 38 16 -17 20 57 12 51 15 59 313 -57 131 44 54 -17 19 36 131 31 38 -17 22 17 132 3 15 -17 15 55 131 13 20 -17 26 0 -0.30
132 6 7 -18 49 58 12 51 37 58 314 -58 132 12 50 -18 48 37 131 59 26 -18 51 19 132 31 21 -18 44 54 131 40 57 -18 55 3 -0.30
132 35 50 -20 20 2 12 51 59 56 315 -59 132 42 36 -20 18 41 132 29 4 -20 21 24 133 1 19 -20 14 56 132 10 24 -20 25 9 -0.31
133 7 36 -21 51 15 12 52 21 55 316 -59 133 14 27 -21 49 53 133 0 45 -21 52 37 133 33 23 -21 46 6 132 41 53 -21 56 25 -0.31
133 41 40 -23 23 44 12 52 44 53 317 -60 133 48 36 -23 22 21 133 34 44 -23 25 7 134 7 47 -23 18 32 133 15 37 -23 28 56 -0.31
134 18 19 -24 57 36 12 53 6 52 317 -60 134 25 21 -24 56 12 134 11 17 -24 59 0 134 44 47 -24 52 22 133 51 54 -25 2 51 -0.31
134 57 52 -26 33 0 12 53 28 50 317 -61 135 5 1 -26 31 35 134 50 44 -26 34 25 135 24 45 -26 27 43 134 31 3 -26 38 19 -0.31
135 40 44 -28 10 6 12 53 50 49 318 -61 135 48 0 -28 8 40 135 33 29 -28 11 32 136 8 4 -28 4 45 135 13 28 -28 15 28 -0.31
136 27 24 -29 49 5 12 54 12 47 318 -62 136 34 48 -29 47 38 136 20 0 -29 50 31 136 55 15 -29 43 40 135 59 38 -29 54 31 -0.31
137 18 26 -31 30 9 12 54 35 45 318 -62 137 25 59 -31 28 41 137 10 53 -31 31 37 137 46 51 -31 24 40 136 50 6 -31 35 39 -0.31
138 14 35 -33 13 33 12 54 57 43 318 -62 138 22 18 -33 12 4 138 6 52 -33 15 2 138 43 39 -33 8 0 137 45 36 -33 19 8 -0.32
139 16 44 -34 59 35 12 55 19 41 318 -63 139 24 39 -34 58 4 139 8 50 -35 1 5 139 46 33 -34 53 56 138 47 1 -35 5 15 -0.32
140 26 5 -36 48 34 12 55 41 39 317 -63 140 34 14 -36 47 2 140 17 57 -36 50 6 140 56 45 -36 42 50 139 55 32 -36 54 20 -0.32
141 44 8 -38 40 56 12 56 4 37 317 -62 141 52 33 -38 39 23 141 35 44 -38 42 29 142 15 48 -38 35 6 141 12 36 -38 46 48 -0.32
143 12 56 -40 37 11 12 56 26 35 316 -62 143 21 39 -40 35 36 143 4 14 -40 38 46 143 45 47 -40 31 15 142 40 15 -40 43 10 -0.32
144 55 18 -42 37 58 12 56 48 32 315 -62 145 4 23 -42 36 22 144 46 13 -42 39 35 145 29 33 -42 31 56 144 21 13 -42 44 4 -0.32
146 55 15 -44 44 8 12 57 10 30 314 -61 147 4 48 -44 42 29 146 45 42 -44 45 46 147 31 15 -44 37 58 146 19 27 -44 50 20 -0.32
149 18 52 -46 56 46 12 57 32 27 313 -60 149 29 1 -46 55 6 149 8 44 -46 58 27 149 57 8 -46 50 30 148 40 53 -47 3 7 -0.32
152 15 58 -49 17 32 12 57 55 24 310 -59 152 26 55 -49 15 50 152 5 2 -49 19 15 152 57 18 -49 11 10 151 35 1 -49 23 59 -0.33
156 4 1 -51 48 56 12 58 17 21 308 -57 156 16 10 -51 47 13 155 51 54 -51 50 39 156 49 57 -51 42 32 155 18 41 -51 55 26 -0.33
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2016 Apr 26.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]