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Updated: 2016 APR 26, 13:56 UT
Event Rank : 87
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 May 29 UT, the 70 km diameter asteroid (1264) Letaba will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Delphinus for observers along a south-to-north path across Australia, passing over western South Australia and into Northern Territory ending east of Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.36 mag to 14.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
128 40 36 -39 11 36 18 5 4 38 26 -51 128 15 28 -39 9 42 129 5 40 -39 13 33 127 52 47 -39 8 2 129 28 12 -39 15 20 -0.19
129 28 9 -37 3 44 18 5 15 40 25 -51 129 3 49 -37 1 50 129 52 26 -37 5 40 128 41 52 -37 0 9 130 14 14 -37 7 26 -0.19
130 9 56 -35 0 53 18 5 26 42 25 -51 129 46 17 -34 58 59 130 33 32 -35 2 48 129 24 58 -34 57 19 130 54 44 -35 4 34 -0.19
130 47 3 -33 2 20 18 5 37 44 25 -51 130 24 0 -33 0 27 131 10 4 -33 4 15 130 3 13 -32 58 47 131 30 44 -33 6 0 -0.19
131 20 18 -31 7 32 18 5 48 46 25 -50 130 57 46 -31 5 39 131 42 48 -31 9 26 130 37 27 -31 3 59 132 3 1 -31 11 11 -0.19
131 50 19 -29 16 1 18 5 58 48 25 -50 131 28 14 -29 14 9 132 12 22 -29 17 54 131 8 20 -29 12 29 132 32 11 -29 19 38 -0.19
132 17 35 -27 27 24 18 6 9 50 25 -49 131 55 54 -27 25 32 132 39 14 -27 29 17 131 36 21 -27 23 53 132 58 41 -27 31 0 -0.19
132 42 29 -25 41 21 18 6 20 52 26 -49 132 21 9 -25 39 30 133 3 47 -25 43 14 132 1 56 -25 37 51 133 22 55 -25 44 56 -0.19
133 5 20 -23 57 37 18 6 31 53 26 -48 132 44 20 -23 55 46 133 26 19 -23 59 29 132 25 23 -23 54 8 133 45 11 -24 1 11 -0.19
133 26 24 -22 15 56 18 6 42 55 26 -48 133 5 40 -22 14 6 133 47 6 -22 17 48 132 46 59 -22 12 28 134 5 43 -22 19 30 -0.19
133 45 53 -20 36 8 18 6 52 57 27 -47 133 25 24 -20 34 18 134 6 20 -20 37 59 133 6 57 -20 32 41 134 24 44 -20 39 40 -0.19
134 3 58 -18 58 0 18 7 3 58 28 -46 133 43 43 -18 56 11 134 24 12 -18 59 50 133 25 27 -18 54 33 134 42 24 -19 1 31 -0.19
134 20 49 -17 21 23 18 7 14 60 28 -46 134 0 45 -17 19 34 134 40 51 -17 23 13 133 42 40 -17 17 57 134 58 52 -17 24 54 -0.19
134 36 32 -15 46 9 18 7 25 61 29 -45 134 16 38 -15 44 20 134 56 24 -15 47 59 133 58 43 -15 42 44 135 14 15 -15 49 39 -0.19
134 51 14 -14 12 10 18 7 35 63 30 -44 134 31 30 -14 10 21 135 10 57 -14 13 59 134 13 43 -14 8 45 135 28 40 -14 15 39 -0.19
135 5 2 -12 39 18 18 7 46 64 31 -44 134 45 26 -12 37 30 135 24 36 -12 41 8 134 27 46 -12 35 54 135 42 12 -12 42 47 -0.19
135 17 59 -11 7 29 18 7 57 66 32 -43 134 58 30 -11 5 41 135 37 27 -11 9 18 134 40 57 -11 4 5 135 54 57 -11 10 57 -0.18
135 30 11 - 9 36 35 18 8 8 67 34 -42 135 10 48 - 9 34 47 135 49 32 - 9 38 24 134 53 20 - 9 33 11 136 6 57 - 9 40 3 -0.18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2016 Apr 26.0
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