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Updated: 2016 May 15, 01:32 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jul 11 UT, the 108 km diameter asteroid (350) Ornamenta will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing over Auckland, New Plymouth, Nelson and Christchurch.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.98 mag to 14.30 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5024-00451-1 by 350 Ornamenta on 2016 Jul 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
175 35 40 -33 56 3 10 14 36 53 314 -59 176 14 56 -34 10 4 174 56 52 -33 42 1 176 38 42 -34 18 28 174 33 48 -33 33 36 0.67
175 11 33 -35 11 18 10 14 49 52 315 -59 175 51 27 -35 25 30 174 32 8 -34 57 5 176 15 37 -35 34 1 174 8 42 -34 48 33 0.67
174 47 57 -36 27 28 10 15 2 51 317 -58 175 28 33 -36 41 52 174 7 52 -36 13 3 175 53 9 -36 50 30 173 44 2 -36 4 23 0.67
174 24 54 -37 44 35 10 15 14 51 318 -57 175 6 15 -37 59 12 173 44 5 -37 29 57 175 31 19 -38 7 58 173 19 50 -37 21 10 0.67
174 2 24 -39 2 46 10 15 27 50 320 -57 174 44 35 -39 17 37 173 20 47 -38 47 54 175 10 9 -39 26 31 172 56 4 -38 38 59 0.67
173 40 31 -40 22 5 10 15 39 49 321 -56 174 23 35 -40 37 11 172 58 1 -40 6 58 174 49 43 -40 46 14 172 32 48 -39 57 54 0.67
173 19 15 -41 42 38 10 15 52 48 323 -55 174 3 19 -41 58 0 172 35 48 -41 27 15 174 30 4 -42 7 14 172 10 2 -41 18 2 0.68
172 58 40 -43 4 32 10 16 5 47 324 -55 173 43 50 -43 20 12 172 14 11 -42 48 52 174 11 16 -43 29 36 171 47 48 -42 39 28 0.68
172 38 51 -44 27 55 10 16 17 46 325 -54 173 25 13 -44 43 53 171 53 12 -44 11 56 173 53 24 -44 53 28 171 26 9 -44 2 21 0.68
172 19 52 -45 52 53 10 16 30 45 326 -53 173 7 34 -46 9 12 171 32 56 -45 36 34 173 36 35 -46 19 0 171 5 8 -45 26 47 0.68
172 1 49 -47 19 38 10 16 43 44 327 -52 172 51 1 -47 36 19 171 13 28 -47 2 56 173 20 57 -47 46 20 170 44 50 -46 52 56 0.68
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2016 May 15.0
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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