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Updated: 2016 AUG 09, 01:10 UT
Event Rank : 41
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Sep 27 UT, the 33 km diameter asteroid (1734) Zhongolovich will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a narrow path of significant uncertainty across eastern Australia from Galdstone across south-eastern Queensland to Goondiwindi, then across New South Wales to just east of Canberra and Cooma, and across far east Vic, passing just off the eastern coast of Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.45 mag to 14.80 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
149 31 10 -44 0 0 17 57 55 32 332 -19 149 16 16 149 46 7 148 16 56 150 46 13 -0.67
149 26 42 -43 0 0 17 57 41 33 332 -19 149 12 3 149 41 24 148 13 44 150 40 27 -0.67
149 23 28 -42 0 0 17 57 27 34 331 -20 149 9 3 149 37 54 148 11 41 150 35 59 -0.67
149 21 22 -41 0 0 17 57 12 34 331 -20 149 7 11 149 35 35 148 10 42 150 32 45 -0.67
149 20 22 -40 0 0 17 56 57 35 331 -21 149 6 23 149 34 22 148 10 46 150 30 40 -0.67
149 20 25 -39 0 0 17 56 42 36 331 -21 149 6 38 149 34 13 148 11 48 150 29 42 0.67
149 21 28 -38 0 0 17 56 26 37 330 -21 149 7 53 149 35 4 148 13 48 150 29 47 0.67
149 23 28 -37 0 0 17 56 10 38 330 -22 149 10 4 149 36 54 148 16 41 150 30 54 0.67
149 26 24 -36 0 0 17 55 54 39 330 -22 149 13 10 149 39 40 148 20 27 150 32 58 0.67
149 30 13 -35 0 0 17 55 37 40 329 -22 149 17 8 149 43 19 148 25 3 150 35 59 0.67
149 34 53 -34 0 0 17 55 21 41 329 -23 149 21 57 149 47 50 148 30 28 150 39 54 0.66
149 40 23 -33 0 0 17 55 3 41 328 -23 149 27 35 149 53 11 148 36 40 150 44 40 0.66
149 46 40 -32 0 0 17 54 46 42 328 -23 149 34 1 149 59 21 148 43 37 150 50 18 0.66
149 53 45 -31 0 0 17 54 28 43 327 -24 149 41 13 150 6 18 148 51 19 150 56 44 0.66
150 1 34 -30 0 0 17 54 10 44 327 -24 149 49 10 150 14 1 148 59 43 151 3 59 0.66
150 10 8 -29 0 0 17 53 52 45 326 -24 149 57 50 150 22 28 149 8 50 151 11 59 0.66
150 19 25 -28 0 0 17 53 33 46 325 -24 150 7 13 150 31 39 149 18 38 151 20 45 0.66
150 29 24 -27 0 0 17 53 15 46 325 -24 150 17 18 150 41 32 149 29 6 151 30 15 0.66
150 40 5 -26 0 0 17 52 56 47 324 -25 150 28 4 150 52 7 149 40 13 151 40 28 0.66
150 51 26 -25 0 0 17 52 36 48 323 -25 150 39 30 151 3 23 149 52 0 151 51 23 0.66
151 3 27 -24 0 0 17 52 17 49 322 -25 150 51 36 151 15 19 150 4 24 152 3 1 0.65
151 16 7 -23 0 0 17 51 57 49 322 -25 151 4 21 151 27 55 150 17 26 152 15 19 0.65
151 29 27 -22 0 0 17 51 37 50 321 -25 151 17 44 151 41 11 150 31 5 152 28 18 0.65
151 43 25 -21 0 0 17 51 16 51 320 -25 151 31 46 151 55 5 150 45 22 152 41 58 0.65
151 58 1 -20 0 0 17 50 56 51 319 -25 151 46 25 152 9 37 151 0 14 152 56 17 0.65
152 13 15 -19 0 0 17 50 35 52 318 -25 152 1 42 152 24 48 151 15 44 153 11 16 0.65
152 29 6 -18 0 0 17 50 14 53 317 -25 152 17 37 152 40 37 151 31 49 153 26 54 0.64
152 45 36 -17 0 0 17 49 53 53 316 -26 152 34 8 152 57 4 151 48 30 153 43 11 0.64
Uncertainty in time = +/- 15 secs
Prediction of 2016 Aug 9.0
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