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Updated: 2016 Sep 26, 02:31 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Oct 04 UT, the 208 km diameter asteroid (165) Loreley will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a wide path across south-eastern West Australia, north-western South Australia and central Queensland, passing over Birdsville, Bowen and Proserpine.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.59 mag to 13.60 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 23.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2423-00801-1 by 165 Loreley on 2016 Oct 4
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
121 57 3 -37 0 0 18 59 14 14 27 -28 123 50 9 120 6 42 124 20 3 119 38 25 1.09
123 10 13 -36 0 0 18 59 21 16 26 -27 125 3 46 121 19 36 125 33 48 120 51 16 1.10
124 24 50 -35 0 0 18 59 29 17 25 -27 126 19 1 122 33 46 126 49 15 122 5 20 1.10
125 41 4 -34 0 0 18 59 37 19 24 -27 127 36 5 123 49 21 128 6 34 123 20 47 1.11
126 59 4 -33 0 0 18 59 47 20 23 -26 128 55 9 125 6 30 129 25 59 124 37 45 1.11
128 19 3 -32 0 0 18 59 57 21 22 -25 130 16 29 126 25 24 130 47 42 125 56 24 1.12
129 41 14 -31 0 0 19 0 9 23 21 -25 131 40 18 127 46 15 132 12 1 127 16 57 1.12
131 5 53 -30 0 0 19 0 21 24 20 -24 133 6 56 129 9 16 133 39 14 128 39 36 1.13
132 33 18 -29 0 0 19 0 34 25 19 -23 134 36 45 130 34 44 135 9 45 130 4 37 1.13
134 3 51 -28 0 0 19 0 49 27 18 -22 136 10 10 132 2 56 136 44 0 131 32 17 1.14
135 37 58 -27 0 0 19 1 5 28 16 -21 137 47 43 133 34 15 138 22 35 133 2 57 1.14
137 16 10 -26 0 0 19 1 22 30 15 -20 139 30 4 135 9 5 140 6 10 134 37 1 1.14
138 59 6 -25 0 0 19 1 40 31 13 -18 141 18 3 136 47 58 141 55 41 136 14 59 1.15
140 47 36 -24 0 0 19 2 0 32 12 -17 143 12 47 138 31 33 143 52 18 137 57 27 1.15
142 42 44 -23 0 0 19 2 23 34 10 -15 145 15 43 140 20 39 145 57 40 139 45 11 1.16
144 45 57 -22 0 0 19 2 47 35 8 -14 147 28 59 142 16 19 148 14 7 141 39 11 1.16
145 0 0 -21 53 26 19 2 50 35 8 -13 -23 7 25 -20 41 30 -23 27 1 -20 23 6 1.18
146 0 0 -21 26 3 19 3 2 36 7 -12 -22 39 29 -20 14 37 -22 58 56 -19 56 21 1.18
147 0 0 -20 59 42 19 3 14 36 5 -12 -22 12 36 -19 48 45 -22 31 54 -19 30 36 1.18
148 0 0 -20 34 23 19 3 26 37 4 -11 -21 46 47 -19 23 54 -22 5 57 -19 5 52 1.18
149 0 0 -20 10 6 19 3 39 37 3 -10 -21 22 2 -19 0 4 -21 41 4 -18 42 8 1.18
150 0 0 -19 46 52 19 3 51 37 2 -9 -20 58 20 -18 37 15 -21 17 15 -18 19 26 1.18
151 0 0 -19 24 40 19 4 4 38 1 -8 -20 35 42 -18 15 27 -20 54 29 -17 57 44 1.19
152 0 0 -19 3 30 19 4 16 38 360 -7 -20 14 8 -17 54 40 -20 32 48 -17 37 3 1.19
153 0 0 -18 43 22 19 4 29 39 359 -6 -19 53 36 -17 34 54 -20 12 11 -17 17 22 1.19
154 0 0 -18 24 17 19 4 42 39 358 -5 -19 34 9 -17 16 9 -19 52 37 -16 58 43 1.19
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2016 Sep 26.0
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