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Updated: 2016 SEP 26, 03:01 UT
Event Rank : 55
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Nov 09 UT, the 28 km diameter asteroid (1488) Aura will occult a 8.6 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across New Zealand passing near Wellington and Hamilton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by
2.86 mag to 11.38 mag (the combined magnitude of the asteroid and the close companion star) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
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Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
174 16 44 -50 11 29 11 17 3 29 292 -22 173 54 14 -50 7 26 174 39 28 -50 15 30 173 2 55 -49 57 55 175 33 7 -50 24 43 -1.57
174 11 3 -49 22 32 11 17 16 30 291 -23 173 49 5 -49 18 31 174 33 14 -49 26 32 172 58 58 -49 9 6 175 25 34 -49 35 40 -1.57
174 7 8 -48 34 2 11 17 28 30 291 -24 173 45 40 -48 30 3 174 28 49 -48 38 0 172 56 38 -48 20 42 175 19 57 -48 47 4 -1.58
174 4 51 -47 45 57 11 17 41 30 290 -24 173 43 50 -47 42 0 174 26 4 -47 49 52 172 55 51 -47 32 44 175 16 6 -47 58 52 -1.58
174 4 7 -46 58 15 11 17 54 31 290 -25 173 43 31 -46 54 20 174 24 54 -47 2 8 172 56 28 -46 45 9 175 13 55 -47 11 3 -1.58
174 4 48 -46 10 55 11 18 7 31 289 -26 173 44 36 -46 7 2 174 25 12 -46 14 46 172 58 25 -45 57 57 175 13 17 -46 23 37 1.58
174 6 50 -45 23 57 11 18 19 31 289 -27 173 46 59 -45 20 6 174 26 53 -45 27 46 173 1 37 -45 11 6 175 14 5 -45 36 31 1.59
174 10 9 -44 37 19 11 18 32 31 288 -27 173 50 38 -44 33 30 174 29 51 -44 41 6 173 6 0 -44 24 35 175 16 15 -44 49 46 1.59
174 14 40 -43 51 0 11 18 45 31 288 -28 173 55 27 -43 47 13 174 34 3 -43 54 44 173 11 30 -43 38 23 175 19 43 -44 3 20 1.59
174 20 19 -43 4 59 11 18 58 32 287 -29 174 1 23 -43 1 14 174 39 25 -43 8 41 173 18 5 -42 52 29 175 24 24 -43 17 12 1.59
174 27 4 -42 19 15 11 19 10 32 287 -30 174 8 24 -42 15 33 174 45 55 -42 22 55 173 25 41 -42 6 53 175 30 15 -42 31 21 1.60
174 34 53 -41 33 47 11 19 23 32 286 -31 174 16 27 -41 30 7 174 53 28 -41 37 25 173 34 16 -41 21 33 175 37 14 -41 45 47 1.60
174 43 42 -40 48 35 11 19 36 32 285 -31 174 25 29 -40 44 57 175 2 4 -40 52 11 173 43 49 -40 36 28 175 45 18 -41 0 27 1.60
174 53 30 -40 3 37 11 19 49 32 285 -32 174 35 29 -40 0 1 175 11 40 -40 7 11 173 54 17 -39 51 37 175 54 24 -40 15 22 1.60
175 4 16 -39 18 52 11 20 1 32 284 -33 174 46 26 -39 15 19 175 22 14 -39 22 24 174 5 39 -39 7 0 176 4 32 -39 30 30 1.61
175 15 57 -38 34 20 11 20 14 32 284 -34 174 58 18 -38 30 50 175 33 45 -38 37 50 174 17 54 -38 22 35 176 15 38 -38 45 51 1.61
175 28 33 -37 50 0 11 20 27 32 283 -34 175 11 3 -37 46 32 175 46 12 -37 53 28 174 31 0 -37 38 23 176 27 43 -38 1 23 1.61
175 42 4 -37 5 51 11 20 40 32 282 -35 175 24 42 -37 2 25 175 59 34 -37 9 16 174 44 58 -36 54 21 176 40 45 -37 17 7 1.62
175 56 28 -36 21 52 11 20 52 32 282 -36 175 39 14 -36 18 28 176 13 50 -36 25 15 174 59 47 -36 10 29 176 54 44 -36 33 0 1.62
176 11 45 -35 38 2 11 21 5 32 281 -37 175 54 37 -35 34 41 176 29 1 -35 41 23 175 15 25 -35 26 47 177 9 38 -35 49 3 1.62
176 27 55 -34 54 21 11 21 18 31 280 -37 176 10 53 -34 51 2 176 45 5 -34 57 39 175 31 54 -34 43 14 177 25 29 -35 5 14 1.63
176 44 57 -34 10 48 11 21 30 31 280 -38 176 28 1 -34 7 30 177 2 3 -34 14 4 175 49 13 -33 59 48 177 42 15 -34 21 33 1.63
177 2 54 -33 27 21 11 21 43 31 279 -39 176 46 1 -33 24 6 177 19 55 -33 30 35 176 7 23 -33 16 29 177 59 57 -33 37 58 1.63
177 21 43 -32 44 1 11 21 56 31 278 -40 177 4 54 -32 40 48 177 38 41 -32 47 12 176 26 24 -32 33 17 178 18 36 -32 54 30 1.64
177 41 28 -32 0 46 11 22 9 31 278 -41 177 24 41 -31 57 35 177 58 23 -32 3 54 176 46 17 -31 50 10 178 38 12 -32 11 6 1.64
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2016 Sep 26.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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