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Updated: 2016 Dec 27, 23:08 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Jan 01 UT, the 54 km diameter asteroid (234) Barbara will occult a 11.3 mag star in the constellation Eridanus for observers along a path across eastern South Australia and western Queensland, passing near Adelaide, Birdsville and Cloncurry.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.86 mag to 12.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 4706-00854-1 by 234 Barbara on 2017 Jan 1
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
140 18 2 -44 2 43 13 8 5 41 310 -20 139 51 19 -43 57 21 140 44 58 -44 8 5 139 32 13 -43 53 28 141 4 31 -44 11 56 -0.76
140 2 21 -42 41 51 13 8 18 42 310 -21 139 36 26 -42 36 33 140 28 28 -42 47 8 139 17 55 -42 32 44 140 47 24 -42 50 55 -0.76
139 49 23 -41 22 17 13 8 30 43 309 -22 139 24 11 -41 17 4 140 14 45 -41 27 30 139 6 10 -41 13 18 140 33 9 -41 31 14 -0.76
139 38 48 -40 3 57 13 8 42 44 308 -23 139 14 16 -39 58 48 140 3 30 -40 9 5 138 56 43 -39 55 5 140 21 25 -40 12 46 -0.76
139 30 22 -38 46 44 13 8 55 44 307 -24 139 6 26 -38 41 39 139 54 28 -38 51 48 138 49 18 -38 37 59 140 11 56 -38 55 26 -0.76
139 23 53 -37 30 33 13 9 7 45 306 -26 139 0 29 -37 25 32 139 47 26 -37 35 33 138 43 44 -37 21 55 140 4 30 -37 39 9 -0.76
139 19 9 -36 15 21 13 9 20 46 305 -27 138 56 15 -36 10 23 139 42 12 -36 20 17 138 39 51 -36 6 49 139 58 54 -36 23 50 -0.76
139 16 2 -35 1 1 13 9 32 47 304 -28 138 53 35 -34 56 8 139 38 38 -35 5 55 138 37 30 -34 52 35 139 55 0 -35 9 25 -0.76
139 14 25 -33 47 32 13 9 44 47 303 -29 138 52 22 -33 42 41 139 36 36 -33 52 22 138 36 35 -33 39 12 139 52 39 -33 55 50 -0.77
139 14 10 -32 34 49 13 9 57 48 302 -30 138 52 30 -32 30 1 139 35 58 -32 39 36 138 36 59 -32 26 34 139 51 45 -32 43 2 -0.77
139 15 13 -31 22 49 13 10 9 48 301 -31 138 53 54 -31 18 4 139 36 40 -31 27 33 138 38 38 -31 14 39 139 52 11 -31 30 57 0.77
139 17 28 -30 11 28 13 10 21 49 299 -32 138 56 28 -30 6 46 139 38 36 -30 16 9 138 41 26 -30 3 23 139 53 53 -30 19 31 0.77
139 20 52 -29 0 44 13 10 34 50 298 -33 139 0 10 -28 56 5 139 41 42 -29 5 23 138 45 20 -28 52 43 139 56 46 -29 8 43 0.77
139 25 22 -27 50 35 13 10 46 50 297 -34 139 4 56 -27 45 58 139 45 55 -27 55 11 138 50 17 -27 42 38 140 0 47 -27 58 29 0.77
139 30 54 -26 40 56 13 10 59 50 295 -35 139 10 42 -26 36 22 139 51 12 -26 45 30 138 56 14 -26 33 4 140 5 53 -26 48 47 0.77
139 37 25 -25 31 47 13 11 11 51 294 -37 139 17 28 -25 27 15 139 57 30 -25 36 19 139 3 9 -25 23 59 140 12 1 -25 39 34 0.77
139 44 55 -24 23 5 13 11 23 51 292 -38 139 25 10 -24 18 35 140 4 47 -24 27 34 139 11 1 -24 15 20 140 19 9 -24 30 48 0.78
139 53 22 -23 14 47 13 11 36 51 291 -39 139 33 48 -23 10 19 140 13 2 -23 19 14 139 19 47 -23 7 6 140 27 15 -23 22 27 0.78
140 2 43 -22 6 52 13 11 48 51 289 -40 139 43 20 -22 2 26 140 22 13 -22 11 17 139 29 26 -21 59 14 140 36 18 -22 14 28 0.78
140 12 59 -20 59 17 13 12 1 52 288 -41 139 53 46 -20 54 53 140 32 19 -21 3 41 139 39 59 -20 51 42 140 46 17 -21 6 50 0.78
140 24 9 -19 52 1 13 12 13 52 286 -42 140 5 4 -19 47 38 140 43 20 -19 56 23 139 51 23 -19 44 29 140 57 12 -19 59 31 0.78
140 36 11 -18 45 1 13 12 25 52 285 -43 140 17 14 -18 40 40 140 55 14 -18 49 21 140 3 39 -18 37 32 141 9 1 -18 52 28 0.78
140 49 7 -17 38 17 13 12 38 52 283 -44 140 30 17 -17 33 57 141 8 3 -17 42 35 140 16 46 -17 30 50 141 21 44 -17 45 41 0.78
141 2 56 -16 31 45 13 12 50 52 282 -45 140 44 12 -16 27 28 141 21 45 -16 36 2 140 30 46 -16 24 22 141 35 22 -16 39 7 0.79
141 17 38 -15 25 25 13 13 3 52 280 -46 140 58 59 -15 21 9 141 36 22 -15 29 41 140 45 37 -15 18 4 141 49 55 -15 32 45 0.79
141 33 14 -14 19 15 13 13 15 52 279 -47 141 14 40 -14 15 0 141 51 54 -14 23 30 141 1 21 -14 11 56 142 5 23 -14 26 32 0.79
141 49 45 -13 13 13 13 13 27 51 277 -49 141 31 15 -13 9 0 142 8 21 -13 17 26 141 17 59 -13 5 57 142 21 47 -13 20 28 0.79
142 7 12 -12 7 18 13 13 40 51 276 -50 141 48 45 -12 3 6 142 25 44 -12 11 30 141 35 31 -12 0 4 142 39 9 -12 14 30 0.79
142 25 36 -11 1 28 13 13 52 51 274 -51 142 7 11 -10 57 17 142 44 6 -11 5 38 141 54 0 -10 54 15 142 57 28 -11 8 38 0.79
142 44 58 - 9 55 41 13 14 5 51 273 -52 142 26 36 - 9 51 31 143 3 27 - 9 59 50 142 13 25 - 9 48 30 143 16 48 -10 2 49 0.80
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2016 Dec 27.0
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