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Updated: 2017 JUN 23, 22:32 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Aug 28 UT, the 127 km diameter asteroid (602) Marianna will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across North Island New Zealand, including Auckland and Wellington.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.29 mag to 13.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
175 56 13 -43 58 33 7 7 12 68 71 -16 175 5 31 -43 58 53 176 46 42 -43 57 53 174 27 52 -43 58 56 177 23 55 -43 57 11 0.37
175 54 10 -42 36 10 7 7 32 69 75 -16 175 4 37 -42 36 32 176 43 31 -42 35 30 174 27 49 -42 36 36 177 19 54 -42 34 47 0.37
175 51 3 -41 13 59 7 7 52 69 78 -16 175 2 33 -41 14 22 176 39 20 -41 13 18 174 26 33 -41 14 27 177 14 56 -41 12 36 0.37
175 46 54 -39 51 56 7 8 12 70 82 -16 174 59 24 -39 52 20 176 34 13 -39 51 15 174 24 8 -39 52 25 177 9 6 -39 50 33 0.37
175 41 50 -38 29 59 7 8 32 70 85 -16 174 55 15 -38 30 22 176 28 13 -38 29 18 174 20 39 -38 30 28 177 2 26 -38 28 36 0.37
175 35 52 -37 8 4 7 8 52 70 89 -16 174 50 8 -37 8 27 176 21 25 -37 7 24 174 16 10 -37 8 33 176 55 0 -37 6 42 0.37
175 29 4 -35 46 9 7 9 12 70 93 -16 174 44 7 -35 46 32 176 13 49 -35 45 29 174 10 45 -35 46 37 176 46 49 -35 44 49 0.37
175 21 27 -34 24 11 7 9 32 70 97 -16 174 37 15 -34 24 33 176 5 29 -34 23 33 174 4 26 -34 24 38 176 37 56 -34 22 53 0.37
175 13 5 -33 2 8 7 9 52 69 100 -16 174 29 34 -33 2 28 175 56 25 -33 1 30 173 57 15 -33 2 33 176 28 23 -33 0 52 0.36
175 3 58 -31 39 55 7 10 12 69 104 -15 174 21 6 -31 40 14 175 46 40 -31 39 20 173 49 15 -31 40 18 176 18 9 -31 38 43 0.36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2017 Jun 23.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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