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Updated: 2017 SEP 12, 20:04 UT
Event Rank : 49
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Nov 10 UT, the 31 km diameter asteroid (614) Pia will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a somewhat narrow path passing over Western Australia near Derby and Marble Bar.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.03 mag to 15.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
128 7 27 -11 27 10 15 13 16 31 63 -61 128 21 58 -11 25 8 127 52 50 -11 29 14 129 4 6 -11 19 20 127 9 18 -11 35 32 -0.94
127 22 20 -12 42 22 15 13 46 30 63 -60 127 37 14 -12 40 13 127 7 19 -12 44 34 128 20 27 -12 34 4 126 22 34 -12 51 15 -0.94
126 33 25 -13 59 10 15 14 15 28 63 -59 126 48 46 -13 56 52 126 17 57 -14 1 31 127 33 14 -13 50 19 125 31 45 -14 8 39 -0.95
125 40 9 -15 17 47 15 14 44 27 62 -57 125 56 2 -15 15 19 125 24 8 -15 20 18 126 41 59 -15 8 18 124 36 15 -15 27 59 -0.95
124 41 51 -16 38 28 15 15 13 26 62 -56 124 58 22 -16 35 48 124 25 11 -16 41 11 125 46 5 -16 28 14 123 35 14 -16 49 30 -0.95
123 37 34 -18 1 33 15 15 42 24 62 -55 123 54 51 -17 58 38 123 20 6 -18 4 31 124 44 42 -17 50 24 122 27 39 -18 13 37 -0.95
122 26 5 -19 27 28 15 16 11 23 62 -53 122 44 19 -19 24 15 122 7 37 -19 30 45 123 36 48 -19 15 12 121 12 1 -19 40 49 -0.96
121 5 39 -20 56 48 15 16 40 21 62 -51 121 25 7 -20 53 12 120 45 55 -21 0 28 122 20 56 -20 43 7 119 46 14 -21 11 49 -0.96
119 33 45 -22 30 23 15 17 10 19 62 -50 119 54 51 -22 26 18 119 12 19 -22 34 35 120 55 1 -22 14 52 118 7 6 -22 47 38 -0.97
117 46 24 -24 9 32 15 17 39 17 63 -48 118 9 46 -24 4 44 117 22 33 -24 14 28 119 15 58 -23 51 27 116 9 18 -24 29 59 -0.99
115 36 39 -25 56 25 15 18 8 15 64 -46 116 3 31 -25 50 33 115 9 2 -26 2 30 117 18 41 -25 34 30 113 42 45 -26 22 0 -1.01
112 50 6 -27 55 29 15 18 37 12 65 -43 113 23 15 -27 47 43 112 15 29 -28 3 42 114 53 41 -27 27 0 110 22 44 -28 31 12 -1.06
108 43 38 -30 19 50 15 19 6 7 66 -40 109 33 24 -30 7 3 107 48 17 -30 34 17 111 38 46 -29 35 47 103 52 4 -31 38 42 -1.22
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2017 Sep 12.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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