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Updated: 2017 OCT 15, 00:02 UT
Event Rank : 96
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Dec 12 UT, the 103 km diameter asteroid (276) Adelheid will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a fairly broad path across south-eastern Australia, from Gladstone across south-eastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, the act including Canberra, eastern Victoria to Cann River, and down the eastern Tasmania coast, with Hobart just on the edge of the one sigma limit.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.81 mag to 13.70 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
148 13 21 -46 0 0 11 22 52 38 344 -12 147 30 7 148 56 42 147 0 48 149 26 16 0.41
148 18 20 -45 0 0 11 22 38 39 344 -13 147 35 51 149 0 57 147 7 2 149 30 0 0.41
148 23 53 -44 0 0 11 22 24 40 344 -14 147 42 6 149 5 48 147 13 45 149 34 22 0.41
148 29 59 -43 0 0 11 22 9 41 344 -15 147 48 51 149 11 13 147 20 57 149 39 20 0.41
148 36 34 -42 0 0 11 21 54 41 343 -16 147 56 4 149 17 11 147 28 36 149 44 52 0.41
148 43 40 -41 0 0 11 21 39 42 343 -16 148 3 45 149 23 41 147 36 41 149 50 57 0.41
148 51 13 -40 0 0 11 21 23 43 343 -17 148 11 53 149 30 40 147 45 11 149 57 34 0.41
148 59 14 -39 0 0 11 21 8 44 342 -18 148 20 26 149 38 9 147 54 6 150 4 41 0.41
149 7 42 -38 0 0 11 20 52 45 342 -19 148 29 24 149 46 6 148 3 25 150 12 17 0.41
149 16 36 -37 0 0 11 20 35 46 341 -20 148 38 47 149 54 31 148 13 7 150 20 21 0.41
149 25 54 -36 0 0 11 20 19 47 341 -20 148 48 33 150 3 22 148 23 12 150 28 54 0.41
149 35 37 -35 0 0 11 20 2 48 340 -21 148 58 41 150 12 38 148 33 38 150 37 52 0.41
149 45 43 -34 0 0 11 19 45 49 340 -22 149 9 13 150 22 20 148 44 26 150 47 17 0.41
149 56 13 -33 0 0 11 19 28 50 339 -23 149 20 6 150 32 26 148 55 35 150 57 7 0.41
150 7 6 -32 0 0 11 19 10 51 339 -24 149 31 20 150 42 56 149 7 5 151 7 22 0.41
150 18 20 -31 0 0 11 18 52 52 338 -25 149 42 56 150 53 50 149 18 55 151 18 2 0.41
150 29 57 -30 0 0 11 18 34 53 337 -26 149 54 53 151 5 7 149 31 5 151 29 5 0.41
150 41 55 -29 0 0 11 18 16 53 337 -26 150 7 9 151 16 46 149 43 34 151 40 31 0.41
150 54 14 -28 0 0 11 17 57 54 336 -27 150 19 46 151 28 47 149 56 24 151 52 20 0.40
151 6 54 -27 0 0 11 17 39 55 335 -28 150 32 43 151 41 11 150 9 32 152 4 32 0.40
151 19 55 -26 0 0 11 17 20 56 334 -29 150 46 0 151 53 56 150 22 59 152 17 6 0.40
151 33 17 -25 0 0 11 17 1 57 333 -30 150 59 37 152 7 2 150 36 46 152 30 3 0.40
151 46 58 -24 0 0 11 16 42 58 332 -31 151 13 32 152 20 30 150 50 51 152 43 21 0.40
152 1 0 -23 0 0 11 16 22 58 331 -31 151 27 48 152 34 19 151 5 15 152 57 1 0.40
152 15 22 -22 0 0 11 16 2 59 330 -32 151 42 22 152 48 28 151 19 58 153 11 2 0.40
152 30 5 -21 0 0 11 15 43 60 329 -33 151 57 16 153 2 59 151 35 0 153 25 25 0.40
152 45 7 -20 0 0 11 15 23 61 328 -34 152 12 29 153 17 50 151 50 20 153 40 9 0.40
153 0 29 -19 0 0 11 15 2 62 327 -35 152 28 1 153 33 3 152 5 59 153 55 14 0.39
153 16 11 -18 0 0 11 14 42 62 325 -36 152 43 52 153 48 36 152 21 56 154 10 41 0.39
-118 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 55 27 5 .. .. .. ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2017 Oct 15.0
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