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Updated: 2017 DEC 15, 14:23 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Feb 11 UT, the 103 km diameter asteroid (36) Atalante will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across New Zealand passing near Te Anau and Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.65 mag to 14.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
161 19 25 -35 51 20 14 1 2 15 125 -40 162 56 7 -36 29 2 159 35 44 -35 7 14 163 50 35 -36 48 52 158 30 17 -34 37 19 1.48
162 15 22 -37 15 16 14 1 6 17 125 -38 163 48 4 -37 48 51 160 37 12 -36 36 33 164 40 40 -38 6 40 159 36 6 -36 10 45 1.49
163 4 56 -38 34 11 14 1 9 18 124 -37 164 34 45 -39 4 34 161 30 40 -37 59 32 165 25 58 -39 20 47 160 32 32 -37 36 41 1.50
163 49 23 -39 49 11 14 1 13 19 123 -35 165 17 4 -40 16 59 162 17 56 -39 17 42 166 7 17 -40 31 53 161 21 55 -38 57 6 1.51
164 29 33 -41 0 59 14 1 16 20 122 -34 165 55 41 -41 26 39 163 0 11 -40 32 3 166 45 9 -41 40 27 162 5 41 -40 13 13 1.51
165 6 4 -42 10 6 14 1 20 21 122 -33 166 31 3 -42 34 0 163 38 12 -41 43 17 167 20 1 -42 46 52 162 44 50 -41 25 55 1.52
165 39 22 -43 16 59 14 1 23 22 121 -32 167 3 34 -43 39 21 164 12 36 -42 51 56 167 52 11 -43 51 25 163 20 3 -42 35 45 1.52
166 9 48 -44 21 54 14 1 27 23 120 -31 167 33 30 -44 42 57 164 43 46 -43 58 22 168 21 54 -44 54 20 163 51 48 -43 43 11 1.52
166 37 37 -45 25 8 14 1 30 24 120 -30 168 1 3 -45 45 3 165 12 3 -45 2 54 168 49 22 -45 55 48 164 20 28 -44 48 35 1.52
167 3 2 -46 26 52 14 1 33 25 119 -28 168 26 25 -46 45 47 165 37 42 -46 5 46 169 14 45 -46 56 1 164 46 20 -45 52 11 1.52
167 26 12 -47 27 17 14 1 37 26 118 -27 168 49 42 -47 45 20 166 0 53 -47 7 9 169 38 9 -47 55 4 165 9 36 -46 54 13 1.52
167 47 15 -48 26 31 14 1 40 26 118 -26 169 11 1 -48 43 47 166 21 45 -48 7 15 169 59 41 -48 53 6 165 30 27 -47 54 52 1.52
168 6 15 -49 24 40 14 1 44 27 117 -25 169 30 27 -49 41 16 166 40 26 -49 6 10 170 19 24 -49 50 13 165 48 59 -48 54 16 1.53
168 23 17 -50 21 52 14 1 47 27 116 -24 169 48 3 -50 37 51 166 56 59 -50 4 2 170 37 22 -50 46 28 166 5 18 -49 52 34 1.53
168 38 23 -51 18 12 14 1 51 28 116 -24 170 3 51 -51 33 39 167 11 28 -51 0 56 170 53 37 -51 41 58 166 19 28 -50 49 50 1.53
168 51 36 -52 13 43 14 1 54 29 115 -23 170 17 53 -52 28 41 167 23 56 -51 56 58 171 8 10 -52 36 45 166 31 31 -51 46 12 1.53
169 2 56 -53 8 30 14 1 58 29 115 -22 170 30 9 -53 23 3 167 34 22 -52 52 12 171 21 1 -53 30 53 166 41 28 -52 41 42 1.53
169 12 21 -54 2 36 14 2 1 30 114 -21 170 40 39 -54 16 48 167 42 47 -53 46 41 171 32 10 -54 24 25 166 49 20 -53 36 26 1.53
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2017 Dec 15.0
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