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Updated: 2018 APR 27, 05:57 UT
Event Rank : 25
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 May 04 UT, the 64.6 km diameter asteroid (5283) Pyrrhus will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a narrow path of significant uncertainty across western Western Australia, from Perth to near Port Headland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.66 mag to 17.75 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.0 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
120 20 21 - 9 0 0 19 18 56 62 144 -40 120 1 23 120 39 16 117 31 10 123 6 27 -0.37
120 12 22 -10 0 0 19 19 10 62 143 -40 119 53 21 120 31 21 117 22 37 122 59 1 -0.37
120 3 59 -11 0 0 19 19 25 63 142 -41 119 44 53 120 23 2 117 13 35 122 51 14 -0.36
119 55 9 -12 0 0 19 19 40 64 141 -41 119 35 59 120 14 17 117 4 3 122 43 5 -0.36
119 45 54 -13 0 0 19 19 54 64 139 -41 119 26 39 120 5 7 116 54 2 122 34 33 -0.36
119 36 12 -14 0 0 19 20 9 65 138 -41 119 16 51 119 55 30 116 43 29 122 25 39 -0.36
119 26 2 -15 0 0 19 20 24 66 136 -42 119 6 36 119 45 27 116 32 25 122 16 21 -0.36
119 15 25 -16 0 0 19 20 39 66 134 -42 118 55 52 119 34 56 116 20 49 122 6 39 -0.36
119 4 20 -17 0 0 19 20 54 67 132 -42 118 44 40 119 23 57 116 8 40 121 56 34 -0.36
118 52 45 -18 0 0 19 21 9 68 130 -42 118 32 58 119 12 30 115 55 58 121 46 3 -0.36
118 40 41 -19 0 0 19 21 24 68 128 -43 118 20 46 119 0 34 115 42 41 121 35 7 -0.36
118 28 6 -20 0 0 19 21 40 69 126 -43 118 8 2 118 48 7 115 28 49 121 23 45 -0.36
118 15 0 -21 0 0 19 21 55 69 124 -43 117 54 46 118 35 10 115 14 20 121 11 56 -0.35
118 1 21 -22 0 0 19 22 10 69 122 -43 117 40 58 118 21 40 114 59 13 120 59 40 -0.35
117 47 8 -23 0 0 19 22 26 70 119 -43 117 26 35 118 7 38 114 43 27 120 46 55 -0.35
117 32 20 -24 0 0 19 22 41 70 117 -43 117 11 37 117 53 1 114 27 0 120 33 40 -0.35
117 16 57 -25 0 0 19 22 57 70 114 -44 116 56 2 117 37 49 114 9 52 120 19 55 -0.35
117 0 56 -26 0 0 19 23 13 71 111 -44 116 39 49 117 22 1 113 52 0 120 5 39 -0.35
116 44 17 -27 0 0 19 23 28 71 108 -44 116 22 56 117 5 34 113 33 22 119 50 50 -0.35
116 26 57 -28 0 0 19 23 44 71 106 -44 116 5 23 116 48 28 113 13 57 119 35 26 -0.35
116 8 55 -29 0 0 19 24 0 71 103 -44 115 47 6 116 30 40 112 53 43 119 19 27 -0.35
115 50 9 -30 0 0 19 24 15 71 100 -44 115 28 5 116 12 9 112 32 38 119 2 52 -0.35
115 30 37 -31 0 0 19 24 31 71 97 -44 115 8 17 115 52 53 112 10 38 118 45 37 -0.35
115 10 17 -32 0 0 19 24 47 71 94 -44 114 47 40 115 32 50 111 47 41 118 27 43 -0.34
114 49 7 -33 0 0 19 25 3 70 92 -45 114 26 11 115 11 58 111 23 45 118 9 6 -0.34
114 27 3 -34 0 0 19 25 19 70 89 -45 114 3 49 114 50 13 110 58 45 117 49 44 -0.34
114 4 3 -35 0 0 19 25 35 70 86 -45 113 40 29 114 27 33 110 32 40 117 29 36 -0.34
Uncertainty in time = +/- 35 secs
Prediction of 2018 Apr 27.0
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