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Updated: 2018 MAY 24, 22:48 UT
Event Rank : 91
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Jul 20 UT, the 79.8 km diameter asteroid (559) Nanon will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across the North Island of New Zealand from Whakatane to Napier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.97 mag to 14.15 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
175 58 46 -32 13 56 14 0 5 51 63 -65 176 29 9 -32 5 2 175 28 7 -32 22 48 176 53 18 -31 57 52 175 3 20 -32 29 52 0.76
176 6 10 -32 53 4 14 0 20 51 62 -65 176 36 46 -32 44 6 175 35 17 -33 1 59 177 1 6 -32 36 53 175 10 18 -33 9 6 0.76
176 13 19 -33 32 21 14 0 35 51 61 -64 176 44 9 -33 23 20 175 42 12 -33 41 19 177 8 40 -33 16 4 175 17 1 -33 48 29 0.76
176 20 14 -34 11 48 14 0 50 51 60 -64 176 51 19 -34 2 43 175 48 51 -34 20 50 177 16 2 -33 55 25 175 23 28 -34 28 2 0.76
176 26 55 -34 51 25 14 1 5 51 59 -64 176 58 15 -34 42 17 175 55 16 -35 0 31 177 23 11 -34 34 56 175 29 40 -35 7 46 0.75
176 33 21 -35 31 14 14 1 20 51 58 -63 177 4 58 -35 22 2 176 1 25 -35 40 23 177 30 6 -35 14 38 175 35 36 -35 47 41 0.75
176 39 32 -36 11 14 14 1 35 50 58 -63 177 11 26 -36 1 58 176 7 19 -36 20 27 177 36 47 -35 54 31 175 41 15 -36 27 48 0.75
176 45 28 -36 51 26 14 1 50 50 57 -62 177 17 39 -36 42 6 176 12 56 -37 0 42 177 43 15 -36 34 36 175 46 37 -37 8 7 0.75
176 51 8 -37 31 50 14 2 4 50 56 -62 177 23 38 -37 22 27 176 18 17 -37 41 11 177 49 28 -37 14 53 175 51 43 -37 48 39 0.75
176 56 32 -38 12 28 14 2 19 49 55 -61 177 29 22 -38 3 0 176 23 21 -38 21 53 177 55 28 -37 55 23 175 56 30 -38 29 24 0.75
177 1 40 -38 53 19 14 2 34 49 54 -61 177 34 50 -38 43 47 176 28 8 -39 2 48 178 1 12 -38 36 7 176 0 59 -39 10 23 0.75
177 6 30 -39 34 25 14 2 49 49 53 -61 177 40 2 -39 24 49 176 32 37 -39 43 58 178 6 41 -39 17 5 176 5 10 -39 51 36 0.75
177 11 3 -40 15 46 14 3 4 49 53 -60 177 44 58 -40 6 5 176 36 46 -40 25 24 178 11 54 -39 58 17 176 9 1 -40 33 5 0.75
177 15 18 -40 57 22 14 3 19 48 52 -60 177 49 37 -40 47 37 176 40 37 -41 7 5 178 16 52 -40 39 46 176 12 31 -41 14 50 0.75
177 19 14 -41 39 15 14 3 34 48 51 -59 177 53 58 -41 29 25 176 44 7 -41 49 2 178 21 32 -41 21 30 176 15 40 -41 56 51 0.74
177 22 50 -42 21 25 14 3 49 47 50 -59 177 58 0 -42 11 30 176 47 16 -42 31 17 178 25 55 -42 3 31 176 18 27 -42 39 10 0.74
177 26 6 -43 3 53 14 4 4 47 50 -58 178 1 43 -42 53 53 176 50 3 -43 13 50 178 29 59 -42 45 50 176 20 51 -43 21 47 0.74
177 28 59 -43 46 40 14 4 19 47 49 -58 178 5 6 -43 36 34 176 52 27 -43 56 42 178 33 45 -43 28 27 176 22 50 -44 4 43 0.74
177 31 30 -44 29 46 14 4 34 46 48 -57 178 8 7 -44 19 35 176 54 27 -44 39 54 178 37 10 -44 11 23 176 24 24 -44 47 59 0.74
177 33 37 -45 13 13 14 4 49 46 48 -57 178 10 46 -45 2 57 176 56 1 -45 23 26 178 40 15 -44 54 40 176 25 30 -45 31 36 0.74
177 35 19 -45 57 1 14 5 4 45 47 -56 178 13 2 -45 46 39 176 57 7 -46 7 20 178 42 57 -45 38 18 176 26 8 -46 15 35 0.74
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 65 56 36 -77 42 57 ... .. .. .. .. .. 80 3 17 -80 38 34 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2018 May 24.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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