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Updated: 2018 Jul 06, 21:26 UT
Event Rank : 62
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Aug 09 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (458) Hercynia will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.74 mag to 15.36 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-387-076427 by 458 Hercynia on 2018 Aug 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
152 47 27 -18 8 15 14 37 6 22 263 -79 153 19 0 -18 6 27 152 16 35 -18 9 54 154 18 35 -18 2 40 151 21 39 -18 12 32 2.21
152 37 42 -18 33 15 14 37 13 22 263 -79 153 9 6 -18 31 29 152 6 56 -18 34 51 154 8 24 -18 27 49 151 12 12 -18 37 25 2.21
152 28 24 -18 58 11 14 37 19 22 263 -79 152 59 41 -18 56 28 151 57 45 -18 59 45 153 58 44 -18 52 53 151 3 11 -19 2 15 2.21
152 19 34 -19 23 4 14 37 26 22 264 -79 152 50 45 -19 21 23 151 49 1 -19 24 35 153 49 35 -19 17 52 150 54 36 -19 27 1 2.22
152 11 12 -19 47 53 14 37 33 22 264 -79 152 42 17 -19 46 14 151 40 43 -19 49 22 153 40 55 -19 42 48 150 46 26 -19 51 44 2.22
152 3 16 -20 12 39 14 37 40 23 264 -79 152 34 17 -20 11 2 151 32 52 -20 14 6 153 32 45 -20 7 40 150 38 41 -20 16 25 2.22
151 55 47 -20 37 22 14 37 47 23 264 -79 152 26 45 -20 35 47 151 25 26 -20 38 47 153 25 4 -20 32 29 150 31 20 -20 41 3 2.23
151 48 45 -21 2 2 14 37 54 23 264 -79 152 19 39 -21 0 29 151 18 26 -21 3 26 153 17 51 -20 57 14 150 24 25 -21 5 39 2.23
151 42 8 -21 26 39 14 38 1 23 265 -79 152 13 0 -21 25 7 151 11 52 -21 28 2 153 11 7 -21 21 56 150 17 53 -21 30 12 2.23
151 35 58 -21 51 13 14 38 7 23 265 -79 152 6 48 -21 49 43 151 5 43 -21 52 35 153 4 51 -21 46 35 150 11 45 -21 54 43 2.23
151 30 13 -22 15 46 14 38 14 23 265 -79 152 1 2 -22 14 17 150 59 58 -22 17 6 152 59 2 -22 11 11 150 6 2 -22 19 12 2.24
151 24 53 -22 40 16 14 38 21 23 265 -79 151 55 42 -22 38 48 150 54 39 -22 41 35 152 53 41 -22 35 44 150 0 42 -22 43 39 2.24
151 19 59 -23 4 43 14 38 28 23 265 -78 151 50 48 -23 3 17 150 49 45 -23 6 1 152 48 47 -23 0 15 149 55 46 -23 8 4 2.24
151 15 31 -23 29 9 14 38 35 23 266 -78 151 46 21 -23 27 43 150 45 15 -23 30 26 152 44 20 -23 24 43 149 51 14 -23 32 27 2.25
151 11 28 -23 53 33 14 38 42 23 266 -78 151 42 19 -23 52 8 150 41 10 -23 54 49 152 40 21 -23 49 9 149 47 5 -23 56 49 2.25
151 7 50 -24 17 55 14 38 49 23 266 -78 151 38 43 -24 16 30 150 37 30 -24 19 10 152 36 49 -24 13 33 149 43 21 -24 21 9 2.25
151 4 37 -24 42 15 14 38 55 24 266 -77 151 35 33 -24 40 51 150 34 14 -24 43 30 152 33 44 -24 37 55 149 40 0 -24 45 28 2.26
151 1 50 -25 6 33 14 39 2 24 266 -77 151 32 50 -25 5 10 150 31 24 -25 7 48 152 31 6 -25 2 14 149 37 3 -25 9 45 2.26
150 59 28 -25 30 50 14 39 9 24 267 -77 151 30 32 -25 29 27 150 28 58 -25 32 5 152 28 56 -25 26 32 149 34 30 -25 34 2 2.26
150 57 32 -25 55 5 14 39 16 24 267 -77 151 28 41 -25 53 43 150 26 58 -25 56 20 152 27 13 -25 50 48 149 32 21 -25 58 17 2.27
150 56 2 -26 19 20 14 39 23 24 267 -76 151 27 16 -26 17 57 150 25 22 -26 20 34 152 25 58 -26 15 2 149 30 36 -26 22 31 2.27
150 54 59 -26 43 32 14 39 30 24 267 -76 151 26 18 -26 42 9 150 24 13 -26 44 47 152 25 11 -26 39 14 149 29 16 -26 46 44 2.27
150 54 21 -27 7 44 14 39 37 24 267 -76 151 25 47 -27 6 20 150 23 29 -27 8 59 152 24 52 -27 3 25 149 28 21 -27 10 56 2.28
150 54 10 -27 31 54 14 39 44 24 267 -75 151 25 43 -27 30 30 150 23 11 -27 33 9 152 25 1 -27 27 34 149 27 51 -27 35 7 2.28
150 54 26 -27 56 3 14 39 50 24 268 -75 151 26 7 -27 54 39 150 23 19 -27 57 19 152 25 40 -27 51 41 149 27 46 -27 59 17 -2.28
150 55 9 -28 20 11 14 39 57 24 268 -75 151 26 59 -28 18 46 150 23 55 -28 21 28 152 26 47 -28 15 48 149 28 6 -28 23 27 -2.29
150 56 20 -28 44 18 14 40 4 24 268 -74 151 28 19 -28 42 53 150 24 57 -28 45 35 152 28 24 -28 39 52 149 28 53 -28 47 36 -2.29
150 58 0 -29 8 24 14 40 11 24 268 -74 151 30 7 -29 6 58 150 26 26 -29 9 42 152 30 31 -29 3 56 149 30 6 -29 11 44 -2.29
151 0 7 -29 32 29 14 40 18 24 268 -74 151 32 25 -29 31 2 150 28 24 -29 33 48 152 33 9 -29 27 57 149 31 46 -29 35 51 -2.30
151 2 44 -29 56 33 14 40 25 23 268 -73 151 35 13 -29 55 5 150 30 50 -29 57 53 152 36 18 -29 51 58 149 33 53 -29 59 58 -2.30
151 5 50 -30 20 37 14 40 32 23 268 -73 151 38 31 -30 19 7 150 33 45 -30 21 58 152 39 59 -30 15 57 149 36 28 -30 24 5 -2.30
151 9 27 -30 44 39 14 40 38 23 269 -72 151 42 20 -30 43 7 150 37 9 -30 46 1 152 44 12 -30 39 55 149 39 31 -30 48 11 -2.30
151 13 34 -31 8 40 14 40 45 23 269 -72 151 46 41 -31 7 7 150 41 4 -31 10 4 152 48 59 -31 3 51 149 43 3 -31 12 16 -2.31
151 18 13 -31 32 41 14 40 52 23 269 -72 151 51 34 -31 31 6 150 45 29 -31 34 6 152 54 19 -31 27 46 149 47 5 -31 36 21 -2.31
151 23 25 -31 56 40 14 40 59 23 269 -71 151 57 1 -31 55 3 150 50 26 -31 58 8 153 0 14 -31 51 40 149 51 36 -32 0 25 -2.31
151 29 9 -32 20 39 14 41 6 23 269 -71 152 3 1 -32 19 0 150 55 56 -32 22 8 153 6 45 -32 15 32 149 56 39 -32 24 29 -2.32
151 35 28 -32 44 36 14 41 13 23 269 -71 152 9 36 -32 42 55 151 1 58 -32 46 8 153 13 52 -32 39 23 150 2 14 -32 48 33 -2.32
151 42 21 -33 8 33 14 41 20 23 269 -70 152 16 47 -33 6 49 151 8 34 -33 10 7 153 21 37 -33 3 12 150 8 21 -33 12 36 -2.32
151 49 50 -33 32 28 14 41 26 23 269 -70 152 24 35 -33 30 42 151 15 46 -33 34 5 153 30 1 -33 26 59 150 15 1 -33 36 38 -2.33
151 57 56 -33 56 23 14 41 33 23 269 -69 152 33 0 -33 54 33 151 23 33 -33 58 2 153 39 5 -33 50 45 150 22 16 -34 0 40 -2.33
152 6 41 -34 20 16 14 41 40 22 269 -69 152 42 5 -34 18 23 151 31 58 -34 21 58 153 48 50 -34 14 28 150 30 6 -34 24 41 -2.33
152 16 4 -34 44 8 14 41 47 22 269 -68 152 51 51 -34 42 12 151 41 0 -34 45 54 153 59 18 -34 38 10 150 38 33 -34 48 41 -2.33
152 26 8 -35 7 59 14 41 54 22 270 -68 153 2 18 -35 5 59 151 50 43 -35 9 47 154 10 30 -35 1 50 150 47 37 -35 12 41 -2.34
152 36 55 -35 31 48 14 42 1 22 270 -68 153 13 28 -35 29 44 152 1 6 -35 33 40 154 22 28 -35 25 27 150 57 20 -35 36 40 -2.34
152 48 24 -35 55 35 14 42 8 22 270 -67 153 25 23 -35 53 27 152 12 11 -35 57 32 154 35 13 -35 49 1 151 7 44 -36 0 37 -2.34
153 0 39 -36 19 21 14 42 14 22 270 -67 153 38 5 -36 17 8 152 24 0 -36 21 21 154 48 48 -36 12 33 151 18 49 -36 24 34 -2.34
153 13 41 -36 43 4 14 42 21 21 270 -66 153 51 35 -36 40 47 152 36 34 -36 45 10 155 3 14 -36 36 2 151 30 37 -36 48 30 -2.35
153 27 31 -37 6 46 14 42 28 21 270 -66 154 5 55 -37 4 23 152 49 56 -37 8 56 155 18 34 -36 59 28 151 43 9 -37 12 24 -2.35
153 42 12 -37 30 25 14 42 35 21 270 -65 154 21 8 -37 27 57 153 4 7 -37 32 40 155 34 50 -37 22 50 151 56 28 -37 36 17 -2.35
153 57 46 -37 54 1 14 42 42 21 270 -65 154 37 16 -37 51 27 153 19 9 -37 56 22 155 52 4 -37 46 8 152 10 36 -38 0 8 -2.35
154 14 14 -38 17 35 14 42 49 20 270 -64 154 54 20 -38 14 54 153 35 4 -38 20 1 156 10 20 -38 9 22 152 25 33 -38 23 57 -2.36
154 31 41 -38 41 5 14 42 56 20 270 -64 155 12 25 -38 38 18 153 51 55 -38 43 38 156 29 40 -38 32 31 152 41 24 -38 47 44 -2.36
154 50 8 -39 4 31 14 43 3 20 269 -64 155 31 32 -39 1 37 154 9 44 -39 7 11 156 50 8 -38 55 35 152 58 9 -39 11 29 -2.36
155 9 39 -39 27 54 14 43 9 20 269 -63 155 51 45 -39 24 51 154 28 34 -39 30 41 157 11 47 -39 18 32 153 15 51 -39 35 11 -2.36
155 30 16 -39 51 11 14 43 16 19 269 -63 156 13 8 -39 48 0 154 48 29 -39 54 7 157 34 42 -39 41 24 153 34 33 -39 58 50 -2.36
155 52 3 -40 14 24 14 43 23 19 269 -62 156 35 44 -40 11 3 155 9 30 -40 17 28 157 58 57 -40 4 7 153 54 18 -40 22 25 -2.37
156 15 5 -40 37 31 14 43 30 19 269 -62 156 59 38 -40 34 0 155 31 43 -40 40 44 158 24 36 -40 26 43 154 15 10 -40 45 57 -2.37
156 39 24 -41 0 32 14 43 37 18 269 -61 157 24 53 -40 56 50 155 55 11 -41 3 55 158 51 45 -40 49 9 154 37 11 -41 9 24 -2.37
157 5 7 -41 23 25 14 43 44 18 269 -61 157 51 36 -41 19 31 156 19 58 -41 26 59 159 20 31 -41 11 26 155 0 25 -41 32 46 -2.37
157 32 18 -41 46 10 14 43 51 18 269 -60 158 19 51 -41 42 3 156 46 9 -41 49 56 159 51 0 -41 33 30 155 24 57 -41 56 2 -2.37
158 1 2 -42 8 46 14 43 57 17 268 -60 158 49 46 -42 4 25 157 13 49 -42 12 45 160 23 20 -41 55 22 155 50 51 -42 19 12 -2.37
158 31 28 -42 31 12 14 44 4 17 268 -59 159 21 26 -42 26 35 157 43 5 -42 35 25 160 57 40 -42 16 58 156 18 12 -42 42 15 -2.38
159 3 40 -42 53 26 14 44 11 17 268 -58 159 55 2 -42 48 32 158 14 2 -42 57 55 161 34 9 -42 38 18 156 47 6 -43 5 10 -2.38
159 37 49 -43 15 27 14 44 18 16 268 -58 160 30 41 -43 10 14 158 46 48 -43 20 13 162 13 1 -42 59 18 157 17 38 -43 27 55 -2.38
160 14 2 -43 37 13 14 44 25 16 267 -57 161 8 34 -43 31 38 159 21 31 -43 42 18 162 54 29 -43 19 55 157 49 57 -43 50 30 -2.38
160 52 32 -43 58 42 14 44 32 15 267 -57 161 48 53 -43 52 43 159 58 22 -44 4 8 163 38 49 -43 40 7 158 24 9 -44 12 53 -2.38
161 33 29 -44 19 50 14 44 39 15 266 -56 162 31 54 -44 13 25 160 37 30 -44 25 40 164 26 22 -43 59 49 159 0 23 -44 35 2 -2.38
162 17 10 -44 40 36 14 44 45 14 266 -56 163 17 53 -44 33 40 161 19 8 -44 46 53 165 17 32 -44 18 54 159 38 50 -44 56 55 -2.39
163 3 50 -45 0 56 14 44 52 14 266 -55 164 7 10 -44 53 25 162 3 32 -45 7 42 166 12 50 -44 37 17 160 19 41 -45 18 31 -2.39
163 53 52 -45 20 44 14 44 59 13 265 -54 165 0 12 -45 12 32 162 50 58 -45 28 5 167 12 58 -44 54 47 161 3 9 -45 39 46 -2.39
164 47 40 -45 39 55 14 45 6 13 264 -54 165 57 31 -45 30 56 163 41 47 -45 47 57 168 18 50 -45 11 13 161 49 30 -46 0 37 -2.39
165 45 48 -45 58 22 14 45 13 12 264 -53 166 59 49 -45 48 26 164 36 27 -46 7 11 169 31 41 -45 26 16 162 39 2 -46 21 0 -2.40
166 48 56 -46 15 56 14 45 20 11 263 -52 168 8 1 -46 4 49 165 35 29 -46 25 41 170 53 28 -45 39 30 163 32 8 -46 40 50 -2.40
167 58 2 -46 32 22 14 45 27 10 262 -51 169 23 26 -46 19 47 166 39 35 -46 43 17 172 27 18 -45 50 10 164 29 17 -47 0 1 -2.41
169 14 22 -46 47 24 14 45 33 10 261 -51 170 48 4 -46 32 53 167 49 41 -46 59 46 174 19 7 -45 56 52 165 31 2 -47 18 25 -2.43
170 39 54 -47 0 34 14 45 40 9 260 -50 172 25 5 -46 43 21 169 7 7 -47 14 49 176 43 28 -45 56 12 166 38 8 -47 35 52 -2.44
172 17 48 -47 11 7 14 45 47 8 259 -49 174 20 35 -46 49 46 170 33 48 -47 28 0 -178 52 46 -45 27 46 167 51 38 -47 52 8 -2.48
174 13 56 -47 17 40 14 45 54 6 258 -48 176 49 21 -46 48 36 172 12 53 -47 38 34 ... .. .. .. .. .. 169 12 56 -48 6 52 -2.54
176 42 20 -47 16 53 14 46 1 5 256 -46 -178 43 12 -46 19 49 174 10 10 -47 45 8 ... .. .. .. .. .. 170 44 10 -48 19 35 -2.71
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2018 Jul 6.0
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