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Updated: 2018 MAY 15, 17:45 UT
Event Rank : 71
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Nov 21 UT, the 86.7 km diameter asteroid (1107) Lictoria will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path grazing the Western Australia coast near Exmouth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.48 mag to 14.20 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 58.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
103 8 1 -33 0 0 15 33 38 1 67 -34 105 35 1 ... .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. ....
105 23 19 -32 0 0 15 33 49 3 65 -35 107 27 32 102 58 40 ... .. .. ... .. .. -1.35
107 9 24 -31 0 0 15 34 8 5 64 -37 108 59 22 105 6 5 111 12 16 101 46 31 -1.82
108 36 14 -30 0 0 15 34 34 6 64 -38 110 16 15 106 46 31 112 19 10 103 57 2 -2.02
109 48 58 -29 0 0 15 35 4 8 63 -40 111 21 34 108 8 51 113 16 43 105 38 18 -2.13
110 50 41 -28 0 0 15 35 39 9 63 -41 112 17 30 109 17 45 114 6 26 107 0 28 -2.20
111 43 25 -27 0 0 15 36 16 10 62 -42 113 5 37 110 16 7 114 49 25 108 8 43 -2.25
112 28 37 -26 0 0 15 36 56 12 62 -43 113 47 0 111 5 50 115 26 31 109 6 8 -2.29
113 7 18 -25 0 0 15 37 39 13 62 -44 114 22 31 111 48 15 115 58 24 109 54 44 -2.32
113 40 17 -24 0 0 15 38 24 14 61 -45 114 52 48 112 24 20 116 25 35 110 35 53 -2.34
114 8 11 -23 0 0 15 39 12 15 61 -46 115 18 24 112 54 52 116 48 30 111 10 38 -2.35
114 31 30 -22 0 0 15 40 1 16 61 -48 115 39 44 113 20 25 117 7 30 111 39 45 -2.35
114 50 37 -21 0 0 15 40 52 17 61 -49 115 57 8 113 41 29 117 22 52 112 3 50 -2.35
115 5 52 -20 0 0 15 41 44 18 61 -50 116 10 54 113 58 24 117 34 51 112 23 22 -2.35
115 17 33 -19 0 0 15 42 38 18 61 -51 116 21 17 114 11 32 117 43 41 112 38 43 -2.34
115 25 52 -18 0 0 15 43 34 19 62 -52 116 28 28 114 21 6 117 49 30 112 50 13 -2.33
115 31 2 -17 0 0 15 44 31 20 62 -53 116 32 38 114 27 20 117 52 29 112 58 6 -2.32
115 33 11 -16 0 0 15 45 30 21 62 -54 116 33 57 114 30 26 117 52 46 113 2 37 -2.30
115 32 28 -15 0 0 15 46 30 21 62 -55 116 32 30 114 30 31 117 50 26 113 3 55 2.28
Uncertainty in time = +/- 39 secs
Prediction of 2018 May 15.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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