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Updated: 2019 Jan 13, 00:40 UT
Event Rank : 36
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Feb 01 UT, the 25 km diameter asteroid (2879) Shimizu will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a significantly uncertain path across western Queensland and central New South Wales during evening twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.48 mag to 16.07 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 724-2263-1 by 2879 Shimizu on 2019 Feb 1
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
152 55 45 -40 0 0 10 0 31 36 19 -10 153 9 25 152 42 4 154 15 5 151 35 33 0.95
152 18 24 -39 0 0 10 0 45 37 19 -10 152 31 56 152 4 50 153 37 1 150 58 53 0.95
151 40 24 -38 0 0 10 0 59 37 20 -10 151 53 49 151 26 56 152 58 22 150 21 31 0.95
151 1 43 -37 0 0 10 1 13 38 21 -10 151 15 3 150 48 22 152 19 6 149 43 26 0.95
150 22 22 -36 0 0 10 1 27 39 22 -11 150 35 36 150 9 6 151 39 13 149 4 36 0.95
149 42 19 -35 0 0 10 1 42 40 23 -11 149 55 28 149 29 8 150 58 41 148 25 1 0.95
149 1 32 -34 0 0 10 1 57 40 25 -11 149 14 37 148 48 26 150 17 29 147 44 39 0.95
148 20 1 -33 0 0 10 2 13 41 26 -11 148 33 2 148 6 58 149 35 36 147 3 29 0.95
147 37 43 -32 0 0 10 2 29 42 27 -11 147 50 41 147 24 44 148 53 0 146 21 29 0.94
146 54 38 -31 0 0 10 2 45 42 28 -11 147 7 34 146 41 41 148 9 39 145 38 38 0.94
146 10 43 -30 0 0 10 3 1 43 29 -11 146 23 37 145 57 48 147 25 31 144 54 55 0.94
145 25 57 -29 0 0 10 3 18 44 30 -11 145 38 49 145 13 3 146 40 36 144 10 17 0.94
144 40 18 -28 0 0 10 3 35 44 32 -10 144 53 9 144 27 25 145 54 51 143 24 42 0.94
143 53 43 -27 0 0 10 3 52 45 33 -10 144 6 34 143 40 50 145 8 13 142 38 8 0.94
143 6 10 -26 0 0 10 4 10 45 35 -10 143 19 1 142 53 17 144 20 41 141 50 33 0.94
142 17 37 -25 0 0 10 4 28 45 36 -10 142 30 28 142 4 43 143 32 12 141 1 53 0.94
141 28 0 -24 0 0 10 4 46 46 38 -10 141 40 53 141 15 5 142 42 43 140 12 7 0.93
140 37 17 -23 0 0 10 5 4 46 39 -9 140 50 13 140 24 20 141 52 12 139 21 10 0.93
139 45 25 -22 0 0 10 5 23 47 41 -9 139 58 23 139 32 25 141 0 35 138 29 0 0.93
138 52 20 -21 0 0 10 5 42 47 42 -9 139 5 21 138 39 16 140 7 49 137 35 32 0.93
137 57 57 -20 0 0 10 6 2 47 44 -9 138 11 3 137 44 49 139 13 50 136 40 43 0.93
137 2 13 -19 0 0 10 6 21 47 45 -8 137 15 24 136 49 0 138 18 35 135 44 27 0.93
136 5 3 -18 0 0 10 6 41 47 47 -8 136 18 20 135 51 44 137 21 58 134 46 40 0.93
135 6 22 -17 0 0 10 7 2 47 49 -7 135 19 46 134 52 55 136 23 55 133 47 16 0.92
134 6 3 -16 0 0 10 7 22 47 50 -7 134 19 35 133 52 29 135 24 20 132 46 8 0.92
133 4 1 -15 0 0 10 7 43 47 52 -6 133 17 42 132 50 17 134 23 8 131 43 10 0.92
132 0 7 -14 0 0 10 8 4 47 54 -6 132 13 58 131 46 13 133 20 12 130 38 13 0.92
130 54 15 -13 0 0 10 8 26 47 56 -5 131 8 17 130 40 9 132 15 24 129 31 9 0.92
129 46 14 -12 0 0 10 8 48 46 57 -5 130 0 29 129 31 54 131 8 36 128 21 47 0.92
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jan 13.0
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