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Updated: 2019 Jan 13, 00:45 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Feb 02 UT, the 110 km diameter asteroid (505) Cava will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Coma Berenices for observers along a path across western Victoria, western New South Wales and western Queensland, passing over Portland, Mount Gambier, Mildura and Broken Hill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.13 mag to 12.96 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0872-00357-1 by 505 Cava on 2019 Feb 2
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
136 47 18 -45 0 0 14 26 27 12 56 -28 138 27 25 135 1 19 139 6 20 134 16 38 -1.71
137 39 12 -44 0 0 14 26 36 13 56 -29 139 14 57 135 58 19 139 52 17 135 15 57 -1.73
138 24 55 -43 0 0 14 26 45 14 55 -30 139 56 54 136 48 21 140 32 51 136 7 56 -1.74
139 5 9 -42 0 0 14 26 54 15 55 -31 140 33 52 137 32 18 141 8 36 136 53 33 -1.74
139 40 28 -41 0 0 14 27 4 16 55 -32 141 6 19 138 10 52 141 39 59 137 33 33 -1.75
140 11 22 -40 0 0 14 27 14 17 54 -33 141 34 41 138 44 36 142 7 25 138 8 31 -1.75
140 38 14 -39 0 0 14 27 24 18 54 -34 141 59 18 139 13 58 142 31 11 138 38 59 -1.76
141 1 23 -38 0 0 14 27 35 19 54 -35 142 20 28 139 39 20 142 51 35 139 5 19 -1.76
141 21 7 -37 0 0 14 27 46 20 54 -36 142 38 24 140 1 2 143 8 51 139 27 52 -1.76
141 37 40 -36 0 0 14 27 58 21 54 -37 142 53 21 140 19 20 143 23 12 139 46 55 -1.77
141 51 14 -35 0 0 14 28 9 21 54 -38 143 5 30 140 34 28 143 34 47 140 2 43 -1.77
142 2 0 -34 0 0 14 28 21 22 55 -39 143 14 59 140 46 38 143 43 47 140 15 29 -1.77
142 10 8 -33 0 0 14 28 34 23 55 -40 143 21 57 140 55 59 143 50 19 140 25 23 -1.77
142 15 44 -32 0 0 14 28 47 24 55 -41 143 26 32 141 2 42 143 54 30 140 32 34 -1.77
142 18 56 -31 0 0 14 29 0 24 55 -42 143 28 49 141 6 53 143 56 26 140 37 9 -1.77
142 19 49 -30 0 0 14 29 13 25 56 -43 143 28 54 141 8 38 143 56 13 140 39 17 -1.77
142 18 30 -29 0 0 14 29 27 25 56 -44 143 26 52 141 8 4 143 53 54 140 39 2 1.76
142 15 1 -28 0 0 14 29 40 26 56 -45 143 22 47 141 5 14 143 49 34 140 36 29 1.76
142 9 27 -27 0 0 14 29 55 27 57 -46 143 16 41 141 0 14 143 43 16 140 31 42 1.76
142 1 50 -26 0 0 14 30 9 27 57 -47 143 8 38 140 53 5 143 35 3 140 24 45 1.76
141 52 13 -25 0 0 14 30 24 27 58 -48 142 58 39 140 43 50 143 24 56 140 15 40 1.76
141 40 38 -24 0 0 14 30 39 28 58 -49 142 46 47 140 32 33 143 12 57 140 4 29 1.75
141 27 6 -23 0 0 14 30 54 28 59 -50 142 33 3 140 19 12 142 59 8 139 51 14 1.75
141 11 37 -22 0 0 14 31 10 29 59 -51 142 17 26 140 3 51 142 43 28 139 35 55 1.75
140 54 12 -21 0 0 14 31 25 29 60 -52 141 59 59 139 46 28 142 26 0 139 18 32 1.74
140 34 51 -20 0 0 14 31 41 29 61 -53 141 40 40 139 27 3 142 6 41 138 59 6 1.74
140 13 32 -19 0 0 14 31 58 30 61 -54 141 19 28 139 5 35 141 45 32 138 37 34 1.74
139 50 15 -18 0 0 14 32 14 30 62 -55 140 56 23 138 42 3 141 22 31 138 13 55 1.74
139 24 56 -17 0 0 14 32 31 30 63 -56 140 31 22 138 16 25 140 57 36 137 48 8 1.73
138 57 35 -16 0 0 14 32 48 30 63 -57 140 4 23 137 48 37 140 30 46 137 20 8 1.73
138 28 7 -15 0 0 14 33 5 30 64 -58 139 35 24 137 18 35 140 1 57 136 49 52 1.73
137 56 27 -14 0 0 14 33 23 30 65 -58 139 4 20 136 46 16 139 31 6 136 17 15 1.72
137 22 33 -13 0 0 14 33 41 30 66 -59 138 31 7 136 11 33 138 58 9 135 42 10 1.72
136 46 16 -12 0 0 14 33 59 30 66 -60 137 55 41 135 34 19 138 23 1 135 4 31 1.72
136 7 31 -11 0 0 14 34 17 30 67 -61 137 17 54 134 54 27 137 45 36 134 24 10 1.71
135 26 8 -10 0 0 14 34 36 30 68 -62 136 37 39 134 11 47 137 5 46 133 40 55 1.71
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jan 13.0
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