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Updated: 2019 Jan 13, 00:49 UT
Event Rank : 51
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Feb 04 UT, the 24 km diameter asteroid (1104) Syringa will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across southern New Zealand, passing over Invercargill, across central New South Wales and northern South Australia, passing near Sydney.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.85 mag to 16.04 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 505-53324 by 1104 Syringa on 2019 Feb 4
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
168 28 8 -47 0 0 12 26 4 24 38 -26 168 52 55 168 3 9 169 59 43 166 53 39 2.04
167 35 36 -46 0 0 12 26 15 25 39 -27 168 0 22 167 10 37 169 7 5 166 1 7 2.04
166 40 18 -45 0 0 12 26 27 25 41 -28 167 5 6 166 15 17 168 11 53 165 5 37 2.04
165 42 8 -44 0 0 12 26 38 25 42 -29 166 7 1 165 17 0 167 14 0 164 7 1 2.04
164 40 57 -43 0 0 12 26 51 26 43 -30 165 5 59 164 15 40 166 13 20 163 5 10 2.04
163 36 35 -42 0 0 12 27 3 26 44 -31 164 1 50 163 11 4 165 9 42 161 59 52 2.04
162 28 49 -41 0 0 12 27 16 26 46 -31 162 54 22 162 2 59 164 2 57 160 50 51 2.04
161 17 23 -40 0 0 12 27 29 26 47 -32 161 43 18 160 51 9 162 52 49 159 37 50 2.04
160 1 57 -39 0 0 12 27 43 26 48 -33 160 28 21 159 35 14 161 39 3 158 20 24 2.04
158 42 7 -38 0 0 12 27 58 26 50 -33 159 9 7 158 14 47 160 21 17 156 58 3 2.04
157 17 22 -37 0 0 12 28 12 26 51 -34 157 45 6 156 49 15 158 59 6 155 30 10 2.04
155 47 2 -36 0 0 12 28 28 25 53 -34 156 15 41 155 17 57 157 31 57 153 55 54 2.04
154 10 16 -35 0 0 12 28 43 25 55 -35 154 40 4 153 39 58 155 59 9 152 14 9 2.05
152 25 53 -34 0 0 12 29 0 24 56 -35 152 57 8 151 54 1 154 19 48 150 23 22 2.05
150 32 17 -33 0 0 12 29 17 24 58 -35 151 5 26 149 58 23 152 32 40 148 21 16 2.06
148 27 5 -32 0 0 12 29 35 23 60 -35 149 2 47 147 50 25 150 36 4 146 4 20 2.07
147 0 0 -31 21 55 12 29 47 22 61 -35 -31 5 51 -31 38 9 -30 22 45 -32 23 29 2.06
146 0 0 -30 57 22 12 29 55 22 62 -35 -30 41 29 -31 13 25 -29 58 50 -31 58 13 2.05
145 0 0 -30 34 11 12 30 3 21 63 -35 -30 18 28 -30 50 4 -29 36 14 -31 34 23 2.05
144 0 0 -30 12 21 12 30 10 20 63 -34 -29 56 46 -30 28 4 -29 14 56 -31 11 56 2.05
143 0 0 -29 51 49 12 30 17 20 64 -34 -29 36 23 -30 7 25 -28 54 55 -30 50 52 2.05
142 0 0 -29 32 37 12 30 24 19 65 -34 -29 17 19 -29 48 4 -28 36 9 -30 31 9 2.05
141 0 0 -29 14 42 12 30 31 19 66 -34 -28 59 31 -29 30 2 -28 18 39 -30 12 47 2.06
140 0 0 -28 58 4 12 30 37 18 66 -33 -28 42 59 -29 13 18 -28 2 24 -29 55 44 2.06
139 0 0 -28 42 43 12 30 44 17 67 -33 -28 27 43 -28 57 51 -27 47 23 -29 40 0 2.06
138 0 0 -28 28 38 12 30 49 16 67 -32 -28 13 43 -28 43 40 -27 33 36 -29 25 34 2.07
137 0 0 -28 15 47 12 30 55 16 68 -32 -28 0 57 -28 30 45 -27 21 2 -29 12 26 2.07
136 0 0 -28 4 12 12 31 1 15 69 -31 -27 49 26 -28 19 6 -27 9 41 -29 0 34 2.07
135 0 0 -27 53 52 12 31 6 14 69 -31 -27 39 9 -28 8 42 -26 59 33 -28 50 0 2.08
134 0 0 -27 44 45 12 31 11 14 70 -30 -27 30 6 -27 59 33 -26 50 37 -28 40 42 2.08
133 0 0 -27 36 53 12 31 15 13 70 -30 -27 22 16 -27 51 38 -26 42 54 -28 32 40 2.09
132 0 0 -27 30 15 12 31 20 12 71 -29 -27 15 40 -27 44 58 -26 36 23 -28 25 55 2.09
131 0 0 -27 24 51 12 31 24 11 71 -29 -27 10 18 -27 39 33 -26 31 5 -28 20 25 2.10
130 0 0 -27 20 41 12 31 27 10 72 -28 -27 6 9 -27 35 22 -26 26 58 -28 16 11 2.11
129 0 0 -27 17 46 12 31 31 10 72 -27 -27 3 13 -27 32 25 -26 24 4 -28 13 13 2.12
128 0 0 -27 16 4 12 31 34 9 73 -27 -27 1 31 -27 30 44 -26 22 22 -28 11 31 2.13
127 0 0 -27 15 36 12 31 37 8 73 -26 -27 1 4 -27 30 17 -26 21 53 -28 11 6 2.14
126 0 0 -27 16 24 12 31 40 7 74 -25 -27 1 50 -27 31 5 -26 22 37 -28 11 57 2.15
125 0 0 -27 18 26 12 31 42 6 74 -25 -27 3 51 -27 33 8 -26 24 34 -28 14 5 2.17
124 0 0 -27 21 43 12 31 44 5 75 -24 -27 7 6 -27 36 28 -26 27 44 -28 17 30 2.19
123 0 0 -27 26 16 12 31 46 4 75 -23 -27 11 37 -27 41 4 .. .. .. -28 22 13 2.23
122 0 0 -27 32 6 12 31 47 4 76 -22 -27 17 23 -27 46 56 .. .. .. -28 28 14 2.27
121 0 0 -27 39 12 12 31 48 3 76 -21 -27 24 26 -27 54 6 .. .. .. -28 35 34 2.35
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jan 13.0
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