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Updated: 2019 Mar 02, 00:10 UT
Event Rank : 92
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Apr 20 UT, the 102 km diameter asteroid (491) Carina will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across south-eastern South Australia, extreme north-western Victoria, far western New South Wales and western Queensland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.19 mag to 14.56 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0250-00273-1 by 491 Carina on 2019 Apr 20
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
138 52 43 -45 0 0 11 4 30 38 358 -33 139 32 34 138 12 52 140 3 46 137 41 45 0.21
139 3 27 -44 0 0 11 4 41 39 358 -33 139 42 38 138 24 17 140 13 18 137 53 42 0.21
139 14 3 -43 0 0 11 4 52 40 357 -34 139 52 36 138 35 32 140 22 46 138 5 26 0.21
139 24 32 -42 0 0 11 5 3 41 357 -34 140 2 29 138 46 37 140 32 10 138 17 0 0.21
139 34 54 -41 0 0 11 5 14 42 357 -35 140 12 16 138 57 34 140 41 31 138 28 24 0.21
139 45 10 -40 0 0 11 5 26 43 356 -35 140 22 0 139 8 23 140 50 49 138 39 38 0.21
139 55 21 -39 0 0 11 5 38 44 356 -35 140 31 39 139 19 5 141 0 4 138 50 45 0.21
140 5 27 -38 0 0 11 5 50 45 355 -36 140 41 16 139 29 40 141 9 17 139 1 43 0.21
140 15 29 -37 0 0 11 6 3 46 355 -36 140 50 50 139 40 10 141 18 29 139 12 35 0.21
140 25 27 -36 0 0 11 6 15 47 355 -37 141 0 21 139 50 35 141 27 40 139 23 21 0.21
140 35 23 -35 0 0 11 6 28 48 354 -37 141 9 51 140 0 56 141 36 50 139 34 2 0.21
140 45 16 -34 0 0 11 6 41 49 354 -37 141 19 20 140 11 13 141 46 0 139 44 38 0.21
140 55 7 -33 0 0 11 6 54 50 353 -38 141 28 49 140 21 27 141 55 11 139 55 10 0.21
141 4 56 -32 0 0 11 7 8 50 353 -38 141 38 17 140 31 39 142 4 22 140 5 38 0.21
141 14 45 -31 0 0 11 7 21 51 352 -39 141 47 45 140 41 48 142 13 34 140 16 4 0.21
141 24 34 -30 0 0 11 7 35 52 352 -39 141 57 14 140 51 56 142 22 48 140 26 27 0.21
141 34 22 -29 0 0 11 7 49 53 351 -39 142 6 44 141 2 3 142 32 3 140 36 48 0.22
141 44 11 -28 0 0 11 8 3 54 351 -40 142 16 15 141 12 10 142 41 21 140 47 9 0.22
141 54 2 -27 0 0 11 8 17 55 350 -40 142 25 49 141 22 16 142 50 42 140 57 29 0.22
142 3 53 -26 0 0 11 8 32 56 349 -40 142 35 25 141 32 24 143 0 6 141 7 48 0.22
142 13 47 -25 0 0 11 8 47 57 349 -41 142 45 4 141 42 33 143 9 33 141 18 9 0.22
142 23 43 -24 0 0 11 9 1 58 348 -41 142 54 46 141 52 43 143 19 5 141 28 30 0.22
142 33 43 -23 0 0 11 9 16 59 347 -41 143 4 33 142 2 55 143 28 41 141 38 53 0.22
142 43 45 -22 0 0 11 9 32 60 346 -42 143 14 23 142 13 10 143 38 21 141 49 17 0.22
142 53 52 -21 0 0 11 9 47 61 345 -42 143 24 18 142 23 28 143 48 8 141 59 45 0.22
143 4 3 -20 0 0 11 10 2 62 345 -42 143 34 18 142 33 50 143 57 59 142 10 15 0.22
143 14 19 -19 0 0 11 10 18 63 344 -42 143 44 24 142 44 16 144 7 57 142 20 49 0.22
143 24 40 -18 0 0 11 10 34 64 342 -43 143 54 36 142 54 47 144 18 2 142 31 27 0.22
143 35 8 -17 0 0 11 10 49 64 341 -43 144 4 55 143 5 23 144 28 14 142 42 10 0.23
143 45 41 -16 0 0 11 11 5 65 340 -43 144 15 21 143 16 5 144 38 34 142 52 58 0.23
143 56 22 -15 0 0 11 11 21 66 339 -43 144 25 54 143 26 53 144 49 1 143 3 52 0.23
144 7 10 -14 0 0 11 11 38 67 337 -43 144 36 35 143 37 47 144 59 38 143 14 51 0.23
144 18 6 -13 0 0 11 11 54 68 336 -44 144 47 25 143 48 50 145 10 23 143 25 58 0.23
144 29 11 -12 0 0 11 12 10 69 334 -44 144 58 25 143 59 59 145 21 18 143 37 12 0.23
144 40 24 -11 0 0 11 12 27 69 332 -44 145 9 34 144 11 18 145 32 24 143 48 35 0.23
144 51 48 -10 0 0 11 12 44 70 330 -44 145 20 53 144 22 45 145 43 40 144 0 5 0.23
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2019 Mar 2.0
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