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Updated: 2019 Apr 15, 18:17 UT
Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Jun 10 UT, the 84 km diameter asteroid (978) Aidamina will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path across south-central Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.85 mag to 15.19 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-410-059007 by 978 Aidamina on 2019 Jun 10
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
165 7 1 -47 7 53 8 25 33 45 39 -31 164 30 48 -47 28 2 165 42 31 -46 47 46 164 2 29 -47 43 31 166 9 17 -46 32 22 0.94
164 37 35 -46 33 33 8 25 40 45 40 -31 164 1 38 -46 53 30 165 12 49 -46 13 38 163 33 33 -47 8 51 165 39 24 -45 58 22 0.94
164 8 18 -45 59 27 8 25 47 45 41 -30 163 32 38 -46 19 13 164 43 18 -45 39 43 163 4 46 -46 34 25 165 9 42 -45 24 36 0.94
163 39 11 -45 25 34 8 25 55 45 42 -30 163 3 45 -45 45 9 164 13 55 -45 6 1 162 36 6 -46 0 12 164 40 9 -44 51 2 0.94
163 10 11 -44 51 54 8 26 2 46 43 -30 162 35 0 -45 11 18 163 44 42 -44 32 31 162 7 33 -45 26 13 164 10 45 -44 17 40 0.94
162 41 18 -44 18 25 8 26 9 46 44 -29 162 6 22 -44 37 40 163 15 35 -43 59 13 161 39 5 -44 52 26 163 41 29 -43 44 29 0.94
162 12 31 -43 45 9 8 26 16 46 45 -29 161 37 49 -44 4 13 162 46 36 -43 26 6 161 10 43 -44 18 52 163 12 21 -43 11 30 0.94
161 43 50 -43 12 3 8 26 24 46 46 -29 161 9 20 -43 30 58 162 17 43 -42 53 10 160 42 26 -43 45 29 162 43 18 -42 38 41 0.94
161 15 14 -42 39 8 8 26 31 46 47 -28 160 40 56 -42 57 53 161 48 54 -42 20 24 160 14 12 -43 12 17 162 14 21 -42 6 2 0.94
160 46 41 -42 6 24 8 26 38 46 48 -28 160 12 36 -42 25 0 161 20 11 -41 47 49 159 46 1 -42 39 17 161 45 30 -41 33 33 0.94
160 18 12 -41 33 49 8 26 46 47 49 -27 159 44 18 -41 52 16 160 51 31 -41 15 23 159 17 52 -42 6 26 161 16 42 -41 1 14 0.94
159 49 45 -41 1 24 8 26 53 47 50 -27 159 16 2 -41 19 42 160 22 54 -40 43 6 158 49 45 -41 33 46 160 47 57 -40 29 4 0.94
159 21 21 -40 29 8 8 27 0 47 51 -27 158 47 48 -40 47 18 159 54 19 -40 10 59 158 21 40 -41 1 15 160 19 16 -39 57 3 0.94
158 52 58 -39 57 1 8 27 7 47 52 -26 158 19 35 -40 15 2 159 25 47 -39 38 59 157 53 34 -40 28 53 159 50 36 -39 25 10 0.94
158 24 35 -39 25 2 8 27 15 47 53 -26 157 51 22 -39 42 56 158 57 15 -39 7 9 157 25 29 -39 56 40 159 21 58 -38 53 25 0.93
157 56 13 -38 53 11 8 27 22 47 54 -25 157 23 9 -39 10 57 158 28 44 -38 35 26 156 57 23 -39 24 35 158 53 21 -38 21 48 0.93
157 27 50 -38 21 28 8 27 29 47 55 -25 156 54 54 -38 39 7 158 0 13 -38 3 50 156 29 15 -38 52 39 158 24 44 -37 50 19 0.93
156 59 26 -37 49 53 8 27 36 47 56 -25 156 26 38 -38 7 24 157 31 42 -37 32 22 156 1 6 -38 20 50 157 56 6 -37 18 56 0.93
156 31 0 -37 18 25 8 27 44 47 57 -24 155 58 21 -37 35 48 157 3 9 -37 1 1 155 32 54 -37 49 9 157 27 28 -36 47 40 0.93
156 2 32 -36 47 3 8 27 51 47 57 -24 155 30 0 -37 4 20 156 34 34 -36 29 47 155 4 40 -37 17 35 156 58 48 -36 16 31 0.93
155 34 2 -36 15 49 8 27 58 47 58 -23 155 1 36 -36 32 58 156 5 57 -35 58 39 154 36 21 -36 46 7 156 30 6 -35 45 29 0.93
155 5 28 -35 44 40 8 28 6 47 59 -23 154 33 9 -36 1 42 155 37 16 -35 27 37 154 7 59 -36 14 46 156 1 21 -35 14 32 0.93
154 36 50 -35 13 37 8 28 13 47 60 -22 154 4 37 -35 30 33 155 8 32 -34 56 41 153 39 32 -35 43 32 155 32 33 -34 43 41 0.93
154 8 7 -34 42 40 8 28 20 47 61 -22 153 36 0 -34 59 29 154 39 44 -34 25 51 153 10 59 -35 12 23 155 3 41 -34 12 55 0.93
153 39 19 -34 11 49 8 28 27 47 62 -21 153 7 17 -34 28 31 154 10 52 -33 55 5 152 42 21 -34 41 20 154 34 45 -33 42 15 0.93
153 10 26 -33 41 2 8 28 35 47 63 -21 152 38 29 -33 57 38 153 41 54 -33 24 25 152 13 36 -34 10 22 154 5 44 -33 11 39 0.93
152 41 26 -33 10 21 8 28 42 47 64 -20 152 9 33 -33 26 51 153 12 50 -32 53 50 151 44 45 -33 39 30 153 36 37 -32 41 9 0.93
152 12 20 -32 39 44 8 28 49 46 65 -20 151 40 31 -32 56 8 152 43 39 -32 23 19 151 15 45 -33 8 42 153 7 23 -32 10 42 0.93
151 43 6 -32 9 11 8 28 57 46 66 -19 151 11 20 -32 25 29 152 14 22 -31 52 52 150 46 38 -32 37 59 152 38 3 -31 40 20 0.93
151 13 44 -31 38 43 8 29 4 46 67 -19 150 42 2 -31 54 55 151 44 57 -31 22 29 150 17 22 -32 7 20 152 8 36 -31 10 2 0.93
150 44 13 -31 8 18 8 29 11 46 68 -18 150 12 34 -31 24 24 151 15 23 -30 52 10 149 47 56 -31 36 45 151 39 0 -30 39 47 0.93
150 14 33 -30 37 57 8 29 18 46 68 -18 149 42 56 -30 53 57 150 45 41 -30 21 55 149 18 20 -31 6 14 151 9 16 -30 9 36 0.93
149 44 43 -30 7 39 8 29 26 46 69 -17 149 13 8 -30 23 34 150 15 49 -29 51 43 148 48 34 -30 35 46 150 39 23 -29 39 28 0.92
149 14 42 -29 37 24 8 29 33 45 70 -17 148 43 9 -29 53 14 149 45 47 -29 21 33 148 18 36 -30 5 21 150 9 20 -29 9 22 0.92
148 44 30 -29 7 12 8 29 40 45 71 -16 148 12 58 -29 22 56 149 15 34 -28 51 27 147 48 26 -29 35 0 149 39 6 -28 39 20 0.92
148 14 6 -28 37 3 8 29 47 45 72 -16 147 42 35 -28 52 42 148 45 9 -28 21 23 147 18 3 -29 4 41 149 8 41 -28 9 20 0.92
147 43 29 -28 6 56 8 29 55 45 73 -15 147 11 58 -28 22 29 148 14 32 -27 51 21 146 47 27 -28 34 24 148 38 3 -27 39 22 0.92
147 12 39 -27 36 51 8 30 2 44 73 -14 146 41 8 -27 52 19 147 43 42 -27 21 22 146 16 36 -28 4 10 148 7 13 -27 9 27 0.92
146 41 34 -27 6 48 8 30 9 44 74 -14 146 10 2 -27 22 11 147 12 38 -26 51 24 145 45 30 -27 33 58 147 36 10 -26 39 33 0.92
146 10 15 -26 36 47 8 30 17 44 75 -13 145 38 42 -26 52 5 146 41 20 -26 21 27 145 14 9 -27 3 47 147 4 52 -26 9 40 0.92
145 38 39 -26 6 47 8 30 24 44 76 -13 145 7 5 -26 21 59 146 9 46 -25 51 32 144 42 30 -26 33 38 146 33 20 -25 39 49 0.92
145 6 47 -25 36 48 8 30 31 43 77 -12 144 35 10 -25 51 55 145 37 56 -25 21 38 144 10 34 -26 3 30 146 1 31 -25 9 59 0.92
144 34 37 -25 6 50 8 30 38 43 77 -12 144 2 58 -25 21 52 145 5 48 -24 51 45 143 38 19 -25 33 23 145 29 25 -24 40 9 0.92
144 2 9 -24 36 52 8 30 46 43 78 -11 143 30 26 -24 51 49 144 33 23 -24 21 52 143 5 45 -25 3 16 144 57 2 -24 10 20 0.92
143 29 20 -24 6 55 8 30 53 42 79 -10 142 57 34 -24 21 47 144 0 38 -23 52 0 142 32 50 -24 33 10 144 24 20 -23 40 31 0.92
142 56 11 -23 36 57 8 31 0 42 80 -10 142 24 20 -23 51 44 143 27 33 -23 22 7 141 59 33 -24 3 3 143 51 19 -23 10 42 0.92
142 22 41 -23 6 59 8 31 7 41 80 -9 141 50 44 -23 21 42 142 54 7 -22 52 14 141 25 53 -23 32 57 143 17 56 -22 40 53 0.92
141 48 47 -22 37 1 8 31 15 41 81 -8 141 16 45 -22 51 38 142 20 19 -22 22 21 140 51 49 -23 2 49 142 44 12 -22 11 3 0.92
141 14 29 -22 7 2 8 31 22 41 82 -8 140 42 20 -22 21 34 141 46 7 -21 52 26 140 17 19 -22 32 41 142 10 4 -21 41 13 0.92
140 39 45 -21 37 1 8 31 29 40 82 -7 140 7 30 -21 51 28 141 11 30 -21 22 31 139 42 22 -22 2 32 141 35 33 -21 11 21 0.92
140 4 35 -21 6 59 8 31 37 40 83 -6 139 32 11 -21 21 21 140 36 27 -20 52 34 139 6 57 -21 32 21 141 0 35 -20 41 27 0.92
139 28 55 -20 36 55 8 31 44 39 84 -6 138 56 23 -20 51 12 140 0 56 -20 22 35 138 31 2 -21 2 8 140 25 10 -20 11 32 0.92
138 52 46 -20 6 49 8 31 51 39 84 -5 138 20 4 -20 21 1 139 24 56 -19 52 34 137 54 36 -20 31 53 139 49 17 -19 41 35 0.92
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2019 Apr 15.0
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