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Updated: 2019 Aug 19, 22:45 UT
Event Rank : 27
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Oct 28 UT, the 5.0 km diameter asteroid (3200) Phaethon will occult a 11.3 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a narrow, large uncertainty path across northern Queensland and South Australia, albeit at low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.59 mag to 16.89 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most just 0.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 678-006094 by 3200 Phaethon on 2019 Oct 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
137 7 26 -37 0 0 13 47 37 7 357 -39 137 4 47 137 10 5 136 45 50 137 29 9 1.09
137 16 21 -36 0 0 13 47 36 8 357 -40 137 13 44 137 18 58 136 54 59 137 37 50 1.10
137 26 37 -35 0 0 13 47 35 9 357 -41 137 24 2 137 29 13 137 5 27 137 47 54 1.11
137 38 12 -34 0 0 13 47 34 10 357 -42 137 35 38 137 40 46 137 17 13 137 59 17 1.12
137 51 4 -33 0 0 13 47 33 11 357 -43 137 48 31 137 53 37 137 30 15 138 11 59 1.13
138 5 11 -32 0 0 13 47 31 12 357 -44 138 2 39 138 7 43 137 44 32 138 25 57 1.13
138 20 33 -31 0 0 13 47 29 13 357 -45 138 18 3 138 23 4 138 0 2 138 41 12 1.14
138 37 10 -30 0 0 13 47 28 14 356 -46 138 34 40 138 39 40 138 16 45 138 57 41 1.14
138 54 59 -29 0 0 13 47 26 15 356 -47 138 52 30 138 57 28 138 34 41 139 15 24 1.14
139 14 2 -28 0 0 13 47 24 16 356 -48 139 11 33 139 16 30 138 53 49 139 34 22 1.15
139 34 18 -27 0 0 13 47 21 17 356 -49 139 31 49 139 36 46 139 14 9 139 54 33 1.15
139 55 46 -26 0 0 13 47 19 18 355 -50 139 53 19 139 58 14 139 35 41 140 15 59 1.15
140 18 29 -25 0 0 13 47 16 19 355 -51 140 16 2 140 20 56 139 58 25 140 38 39 1.15
140 42 26 -24 0 0 13 47 14 20 355 -52 140 39 58 140 44 53 140 22 23 141 2 35 1.16
141 7 37 -23 0 0 13 47 11 21 354 -53 141 5 10 141 10 5 140 47 36 141 27 46 1.16
141 34 5 -22 0 0 13 47 8 22 354 -54 141 31 38 141 36 33 141 14 3 141 54 15 1.16
142 1 51 -21 0 0 13 47 5 23 354 -55 141 59 24 142 4 19 141 41 47 142 22 2 1.16
142 30 56 -20 0 0 13 47 2 24 353 -56 142 28 28 142 33 24 142 10 49 142 51 10 1.16
143 1 22 -19 0 0 13 46 58 25 353 -57 142 58 54 143 3 50 142 41 12 143 21 40 1.16
143 33 12 -18 0 0 13 46 55 26 352 -58 143 30 43 143 35 41 143 12 56 143 53 35 1.16
144 6 27 -17 0 0 13 46 51 27 352 -60 144 3 58 144 8 57 143 46 6 144 26 57 1.16
144 41 12 -16 0 0 13 46 47 28 351 -61 144 38 41 144 43 42 144 20 43 145 1 49 1.16
145 17 29 -15 0 0 13 46 43 29 351 -62 145 14 57 145 20 1 144 56 52 145 38 15 1.16
145 55 22 -14 0 0 13 46 39 29 350 -63 145 52 49 145 57 55 145 34 35 146 16 18 1.16
146 34 56 -13 0 0 13 46 35 30 350 -64 146 32 22 146 37 30 146 13 57 146 56 4 1.16
147 16 16 -12 0 0 13 46 30 31 349 -65 147 13 40 147 18 52 146 55 3 147 37 38 1.17
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2019 Aug 19.0
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