|
|
Updated: 2019 Aug 31, 02:33 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Oct 31 UT, the 42 km diameter asteroid (678) Fredegundis will occult λ Arietis, a 4.9 mag star in the constellation Aries for observers along a path across south-eastern Queensland, western New South Wales, north-western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.18 mag to 11.04 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 9153 by 678 Fredegundis on 2019 Oct 31
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. -63 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. 112 19 41 ... .. .. 112 48 44 ....
112 49 13 -62 0 0 13 47 9.1 1 28 -9 112 9 16 113 29 13 111 41 11 113 57 22 ....
113 58 14 -61 0 0 13 47 8.5 2 27 -10 113 19 27 114 37 3 112 52 11 115 4 24 0.66
115 5 41 -60 0 0 13 47 7.3 3 26 -11 114 27 59 115 43 27 114 1 29 116 10 3 0.80
116 11 50 -59 0 0 13 47 5.6 4 25 -12 115 35 6 116 48 36 115 9 18 117 14 31 0.87
117 16 49 -58 0 0 13 47 3.3 6 24 -13 116 41 0 117 52 42 116 15 51 118 17 58 0.91
118 20 51 -57 0 0 13 47 0.6 7 23 -15 117 45 52 118 55 54 117 21 18 119 20 35 0.93
119 24 3 -56 0 0 13 46 57.3 8 22 -16 118 49 51 119 58 20 118 25 50 120 22 29 0.95
120 26 35 -55 0 0 13 46 53.4 9 21 -17 119 53 5 121 0 9 119 29 34 121 23 48 0.97
121 28 33 -54 0 0 13 46 49.1 10 20 -18 120 55 42 122 1 27 120 32 39 122 24 39 0.98
122 30 4 -53 0 0 13 46 44.2 11 20 -19 121 57 50 123 2 22 121 35 12 123 25 8 0.99
123 31 14 -52 0 0 13 46 38.7 12 19 -20 122 59 34 124 2 59 122 37 20 124 25 22 0.99
124 32 10 -51 0 0 13 46 32.7 14 18 -22 124 1 0 125 3 24 123 39 8 125 25 25 1.00
125 32 56 -50 0 0 13 46 26.2 15 17 -23 125 2 15 126 3 41 124 40 43 126 25 22 1.00
126 33 37 -49 0 0 13 46 19.1 16 16 -24 126 3 23 127 3 57 125 42 9 127 25 20 1.01
127 34 20 -48 0 0 13 46 11.4 17 15 -25 127 4 29 128 4 15 126 43 33 128 25 21 1.01
128 35 7 -47 0 0 13 46 3.2 18 15 -26 128 5 38 129 4 41 127 44 58 129 25 32 1.02
129 36 4 -46 0 0 13 45 54.4 19 14 -27 129 6 55 130 5 18 128 46 28 130 25 55 1.02
130 37 14 -45 0 0 13 45 45.0 20 13 -29 130 8 24 131 6 10 129 48 10 131 26 35 1.02
131 38 43 -44 0 0 13 45 35.1 22 12 -30 131 10 9 132 7 22 130 50 6 132 27 36 1.02
132 40 33 -43 0 0 13 45 24.6 23 11 -31 132 12 14 133 8 59 131 52 22 133 29 2 1.02
133 42 50 -42 0 0 13 45 13.4 24 10 -32 133 14 43 134 11 3 132 55 1 134 30 57 1.03
134 45 37 -41 0 0 13 45 1.7 25 9 -33 134 17 42 135 13 39 133 58 7 135 33 26 1.03
135 48 59 -40 0 0 13 44 49.4 26 8 -34 135 21 13 136 16 51 135 1 45 136 36 32 1.03
136 52 59 -39 0 0 13 44 36.5 27 7 -36 136 25 21 137 20 44 136 5 59 137 40 19 1.03
137 57 42 -38 0 0 13 44 23.0 28 6 -37 137 30 11 138 25 21 137 10 53 138 44 52 1.03
139 3 13 -37 0 0 13 44 8.9 29 5 -38 138 35 46 139 30 48 138 16 31 139 50 16 1.03
140 9 36 -36 0 0 13 43 54.1 30 4 -39 139 42 12 140 37 8 139 22 59 140 56 34 1.03
141 16 55 -35 0 0 13 43 38.7 31 3 -40 140 49 32 141 44 26 140 30 21 142 3 52 1.03
142 25 17 -34 0 0 13 43 22.6 32 2 -41 141 57 53 142 52 48 141 38 42 143 12 15 1.03
143 34 46 -33 0 0 13 43 5.9 33 1 -43 143 7 20 144 2 20 142 48 7 144 21 48 1.03
144 45 28 -32 0 0 13 42 48.5 34 360 -44 144 17 58 145 13 6 143 58 43 145 32 38 1.03
145 57 29 -31 0 0 13 42 30.5 35 358 -45 145 29 53 146 25 14 145 10 34 146 44 51 1.03
147 10 56 -30 0 0 13 42 11.7 36 357 -46 146 43 12 147 38 49 146 23 47 147 58 33 1.03
148 25 56 -29 0 0 13 41 52.2 37 356 -47 147 58 2 148 54 0 147 38 30 149 13 52 1.03
149 42 37 -28 0 0 13 41 32.0 38 354 -48 149 14 30 150 10 55 148 54 50 150 30 56 1.02
151 1 9 -27 0 0 13 41 11.0 39 353 -49 150 32 47 151 29 43 150 12 56 151 49 55 1.02
152 21 40 -26 0 0 13 40 49.2 40 351 -50 151 53 0 152 50 33 151 32 57 153 10 59 1.02
153 44 22 -25 0 0 13 40 26.7 41 350 -51 153 15 20 154 13 37 152 55 3 154 34 19 1.02
155 9 27 -24 0 0 13 40 3.3 41 348 -52 154 40 1 155 39 8 154 19 26 156 0 9 1.02
156 37 10 -23 0 0 13 39 39.0 42 346 -53 156 7 15 157 7 21 155 46 21 157 28 44 1.02
158 7 46 -22 0 0 13 39 13.8 43 344 -53 157 37 18 158 38 32 157 16 1 159 0 20 1.02
159 41 35 -21 0 0 13 38 47.6 43 342 -54 159 10 28 160 13 1 158 48 45 160 35 19 1.02
161 19 0 -20 0 0 13 38 20.4 44 340 -55 160 47 7 161 51 12 160 24 53 162 14 4 1.01
163 0 25 -19 0 0 13 37 52.1 44 338 -55 162 27 40 163 33 33 162 4 51 163 57 5 1.01
164 46 25 -18 0 0 13 37 22.6 44 335 -55 164 12 39 165 20 37 163 49 8 165 44 56 1.01
166 37 39 -17 0 0 13 36 51.7 45 333 -56 166 2 40 167 13 7 165 38 20 167 38 22 1.01
168 34 57 -16 0 0 13 36 19.5 45 330 -56 167 58 30 169 11 57 167 33 12 169 38 19 1.01
170 39 23 -15 0 0 13 35 45.6 45 328 -56 170 1 11 171 18 15 169 34 41 171 46 0 1.01
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
-165 0 0 - 7 49 29 13 29 53.8 34 306 -43 - 7 33 13 - 8 5 50 - 7 21 49 - 8 17 22 1.01
-164 0 0 - 7 42 22 13 29 41.7 33 305 -43 - 7 26 7 - 7 58 42 - 7 14 44 - 8 10 13 1.01
-163 0 0 - 7 36 5 13 29 29.9 33 305 -42 - 7 19 51 - 7 52 23 - 7 8 29 - 8 3 54 1.01
-162 0 0 - 7 30 38 13 29 18.4 32 304 -41 - 7 14 25 - 7 46 55 - 7 3 3 - 7 58 25 1.01
-161 0 0 - 7 26 0 13 29 7.0 31 304 -40 - 7 9 48 - 7 42 17 - 6 58 27 - 7 53 47 1.02
-160 0 0 - 7 22 12 13 28 55.9 30 303 -39 - 7 6 0 - 7 38 28 - 6 54 40 - 7 49 58 1.02
-159 0 0 - 7 19 14 13 28 45.1 30 303 -38 - 7 3 3 - 7 35 30 - 6 51 42 - 7 47 0 1.02
-158 0 0 - 7 17 7 13 28 34.4 29 302 -38 - 7 0 55 - 7 33 23 - 6 49 35 - 7 44 52 1.02
-157 0 0 - 7 15 49 13 28 24.1 28 302 -37 - 6 59 37 - 7 32 5 - 6 48 17 - 7 43 35 1.02
-156 0 0 - 7 15 22 13 28 14.0 27 301 -36 - 6 59 10 - 7 31 38 - 6 47 49 - 7 43 8 1.02
-155 0 0 - 7 15 45 13 28 4.1 27 301 -35 - 6 59 33 - 7 32 2 - 6 48 11 - 7 43 32 1.02
-154 0 0 - 7 16 59 13 27 54.6 26 301 -34 - 7 0 46 - 7 33 17 - 6 49 24 - 7 44 48 1.03
-153 0 0 - 7 19 4 13 27 45.3 25 300 -33 - 7 2 49 - 7 35 23 - 6 51 27 - 7 46 54 1.03
-152 0 0 - 7 22 0 13 27 36.3 24 300 -32 - 7 5 44 - 7 38 20 - 6 54 21 - 7 49 52 1.03
-151 0 0 - 7 25 47 13 27 27.5 23 300 -31 - 7 9 30 - 7 42 9 - 6 58 5 - 7 53 42 1.03
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2019 Aug 31.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]