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Updated: 2019 JUL 21, 08:19 UT
Event Rank : 72
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Nov 28 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (118) Peitho will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Western Australia, from near Broome to Hopetoun.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.76 mag to 12.08 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Path Coordinates:
Occultation of TYC 2452-02032-1 by 118 Peitho on 2019 Nov 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
118 22 8 -38 0 0 17 13 38 17 25 -28 118 39 26 118 4 46 119 2 2 117 41 56 -0.65
118 39 13 -37 0 0 17 13 47 18 25 -29 118 56 15 118 22 9 119 18 29 117 59 41 -0.65
118 54 51 -36 0 0 17 13 56 19 25 -30 119 11 37 118 38 3 119 33 30 118 15 56 -0.65
119 9 6 -35 0 0 17 14 6 20 24 -30 119 25 36 118 52 33 119 47 10 118 30 46 -0.66
119 22 2 -34 0 0 17 14 16 21 24 -31 119 38 18 119 5 43 119 59 33 118 44 15 -0.66
119 33 42 -33 0 0 17 14 27 22 24 -32 119 49 45 119 17 37 120 10 43 118 56 27 -0.66
119 44 11 -32 0 0 17 14 38 23 24 -33 120 0 1 119 28 18 120 20 43 119 7 25 -0.66
119 53 31 -31 0 0 17 14 49 24 24 -34 120 9 9 119 37 50 120 29 36 119 17 12 -0.66
120 1 44 -30 0 0 17 15 1 25 24 -35 120 17 12 119 46 14 120 37 24 119 25 51 -0.66
120 8 55 -29 0 0 17 15 14 26 24 -36 120 24 12 119 53 35 120 44 11 119 33 26 -0.66
120 15 4 -28 0 0 17 15 27 27 24 -36 120 30 11 119 59 54 120 49 57 119 39 58 -0.66
120 20 14 -27 0 0 17 15 40 27 25 -37 120 35 13 120 5 14 120 54 47 119 45 30 -0.66
120 24 28 -26 0 0 17 15 54 28 25 -38 120 39 18 120 9 36 120 58 40 119 50 4 -0.66
120 27 47 -25 0 0 17 16 8 29 25 -39 120 42 28 120 13 3 121 1 40 119 53 41 -0.66
120 30 12 -24 0 0 17 16 22 30 25 -40 120 44 46 120 15 36 121 3 48 119 56 24 -0.66
120 31 45 -23 0 0 17 16 37 31 25 -41 120 46 12 120 17 17 121 5 5 119 58 14 -0.66
120 32 29 -22 0 0 17 16 52 32 25 -41 120 46 49 120 18 6 121 5 33 119 59 13 -0.66
120 32 23 -21 0 0 17 17 8 33 25 -42 120 46 37 120 18 7 121 5 13 119 59 21 0.66
120 31 29 -20 0 0 17 17 24 34 26 -43 120 45 37 120 17 19 121 4 6 119 58 41 0.66
120 29 48 -19 0 0 17 17 41 35 26 -44 120 43 51 120 15 44 121 2 13 119 57 13 0.66
120 27 22 -18 0 0 17 17 57 36 26 -45 120 41 20 120 13 22 120 59 35 119 54 58 0.66
120 24 11 -17 0 0 17 18 15 37 27 -46 120 38 4 120 10 15 120 56 14 119 51 57 0.66
120 20 15 -16 0 0 17 18 32 38 27 -46 120 34 4 120 6 24 120 52 9 119 48 11 0.66
120 15 36 -15 0 0 17 18 50 39 27 -47 120 29 22 120 1 49 120 47 21 119 43 41 0.66
120 10 14 -14 0 0 17 19 8 39 28 -48 120 23 56 119 56 31 120 41 51 119 38 28 0.65
120 4 10 -13 0 0 17 19 27 40 28 -49 120 17 49 119 50 30 120 35 40 119 32 31 0.65
119 57 24 -12 0 0 17 19 46 41 28 -50 120 11 1 119 43 46 120 28 48 119 25 51 0.65
119 49 57 -11 0 0 17 20 5 42 29 -51 120 3 31 119 36 21 120 21 15 119 18 29 0.65
119 41 49 -10 0 0 17 20 25 43 29 -52 119 55 21 119 28 15 120 13 2 119 10 26 0.65
119 33 0 - 9 0 0 17 20 45 44 30 -52 119 46 30 119 19 28 120 4 9 119 1 40 0.65
119 23 30 - 8 0 0 17 21 5 45 31 -53 119 36 58 119 9 59 119 54 36 118 52 14 0.65
119 13 19 - 7 0 0 17 21 26 45 31 -54 119 26 47 118 59 50 119 44 23 118 42 5 0.64
119 2 28 - 6 0 0 17 21 47 46 32 -55 119 15 55 118 48 59 119 33 30 118 31 16 0.64
118 50 57 - 5 0 0 17 22 8 47 32 -56 119 4 23 118 37 28 119 21 58 118 19 46 0.64
118 38 45 - 4 0 0 17 22 29 48 33 -57 118 52 11 118 25 16 119 9 46 118 7 34 0.64
118 25 52 - 3 0 0 17 22 51 48 34 -57 118 39 19 118 12 24 118 56 54 117 54 41 0.64
118 12 19 - 2 0 0 17 23 13 49 35 -58 118 25 46 117 58 49 118 43 22 117 41 6 0.63
117 58 4 - 1 0 0 17 23 35 50 35 -59 118 11 32 117 44 34 118 29 9 117 26 48 0.63
117 43 7 0 0 0 17 23 58 51 36 -60 117 56 37 117 29 36 118 14 15 117 11 49 0.63
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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