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Updated: 2019 Oct 31, 04:53 UT
Event Rank : 58
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Dec 18 UT, the 26 km diameter asteroid (1176) Lucidor will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Sextans for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales, passing over Groote Eylandt, Coonabarrabran, Bathurst and Ulladulla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.85 mag to 11.44 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 471-43980 by 1176 Lucidor on 2019 Dec 18
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. -75 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. 115 13 47 ... .. .. 120 23 2 ....
122 44 43 -74 0 0 15 56 14.0 2 67 7 120 56 25 124 24 7 116 20 38 127 33 34 ....
128 44 48 -73 0 0 15 56 11.2 4 61 6 127 27 15 129 58 49 124 28 14 132 26 7 -1.05
133 2 54 -72 0 0 15 56 7.6 6 57 6 131 59 49 134 3 59 129 38 29 136 7 50 -1.16
136 23 6 -71 0 0 15 56 3.5 7 54 5 135 28 54 137 16 1 133 29 9 139 4 23 -1.21
139 4 45 -70 0 0 15 55 58.8 9 52 4 138 16 41 139 51 53 136 31 25 141 29 1 -1.24
141 18 25 -69 0 0 15 55 53.7 10 50 4 140 34 56 142 1 11 139 0 13 143 29 44 -1.25
143 10 43 -68 0 0 15 55 48.3 11 48 3 142 30 50 143 50 4 141 4 16 145 11 46 -1.26
144 46 8 -67 0 0 15 55 42.4 12 46 2 144 9 8 145 22 41 142 49 5 146 38 45 -1.27
146 7 48 -66 0 0 15 55 36.2 13 45 1 145 33 13 146 42 1 144 18 32 147 53 23 -1.27
147 18 6 -65 0 0 15 55 29.6 14 44 1 146 45 32 147 50 20 145 35 22 148 57 40 -1.28
148 18 47 -64 0 0 15 55 22.7 15 44 0 147 47 58 148 49 19 146 41 39 149 53 10 -1.28
149 11 15 -63 0 0 15 55 15.4 16 43 -1 148 41 58 149 40 19 147 38 59 150 41 8 -1.28
149 56 39 -62 0 0 15 55 7.8 17 42 -2 149 28 41 150 24 24 148 28 38 151 22 32 -1.28
150 35 51 -61 0 0 15 54 59.8 18 42 -2 150 9 4 151 2 26 149 11 35 151 58 12 -1.29
151 9 36 -60 0 0 15 54 51.6 19 42 -3 150 43 52 151 35 9 149 48 41 152 28 46 -1.29
151 38 31 -59 0 0 15 54 43.0 20 42 -4 151 13 43 152 3 8 150 20 35 152 54 50 -1.29
152 3 6 -58 0 0 15 54 34.1 21 41 -5 151 39 10 152 26 53 150 47 53 153 16 51 -1.29
152 23 48 -57 0 0 15 54 24.9 22 41 -5 152 0 38 152 46 50 151 11 1 153 35 13 -1.29
152 40 58 -56 0 0 15 54 15.4 23 41 -6 152 18 30 153 3 19 151 30 25 153 50 16 -1.29
152 54 57 -55 0 0 15 54 5.5 23 41 -7 152 33 7 153 16 39 151 46 24 154 2 17 -1.29
153 5 59 -54 0 0 15 53 55.4 24 42 -8 152 44 44 153 27 7 151 59 17 154 11 33 -1.29
153 14 19 -53 0 0 15 53 45.0 25 42 -9 152 53 36 153 34 55 152 9 19 154 18 15 -1.29
153 20 9 -52 0 0 15 53 34.3 26 42 -10 152 59 56 153 40 16 152 16 42 154 22 35 -1.30
153 23 40 -51 0 0 15 53 23.3 27 42 -10 153 3 53 153 43 20 152 21 38 154 24 43 -1.30
153 25 0 -50 0 0 15 53 12.0 27 43 -11 153 5 39 153 44 16 152 24 17 154 24 47 -1.30
153 24 19 -49 0 0 15 53 0.4 28 43 -12 153 5 21 153 43 12 152 24 49 154 22 56 1.30
153 21 43 -48 0 0 15 52 48.5 29 44 -13 153 3 6 153 40 15 152 23 19 154 19 15 1.30
153 17 18 -47 0 0 15 52 36.4 29 44 -14 152 59 0 153 35 31 152 19 55 154 13 50 1.30
153 11 9 -46 0 0 15 52 24.0 30 45 -15 152 53 10 153 29 4 152 14 43 154 6 47 1.30
153 3 22 -45 0 0 15 52 11.3 31 45 -16 152 45 38 153 21 1 152 7 47 153 58 9 1.31
152 54 0 -44 0 0 15 51 58.4 31 46 -17 152 36 31 153 11 23 151 59 12 153 48 0 1.31
152 43 6 -43 0 0 15 51 45.2 32 47 -18 152 25 51 153 0 16 151 49 1 153 36 24 1.31
152 30 44 -42 0 0 15 51 31.7 32 47 -19 152 13 41 152 47 41 151 37 18 153 23 23 1.31
152 16 55 -41 0 0 15 51 18.0 33 48 -20 152 0 4 152 33 41 151 24 5 153 9 0 1.31
152 1 43 -40 0 0 15 51 4.0 33 49 -21 151 45 2 152 18 19 151 9 25 152 53 16 1.32
151 45 8 -39 0 0 15 50 49.8 34 50 -22 151 28 36 152 1 35 150 53 19 152 36 12 1.32
151 27 11 -38 0 0 15 50 35.3 34 51 -23 151 10 48 151 43 30 150 35 48 152 17 51 1.32
151 7 55 -37 0 0 15 50 20.6 35 51 -24 150 51 39 151 24 6 150 16 53 151 58 12 1.32
150 47 18 -36 0 0 15 50 5.7 35 52 -25 150 31 8 151 3 24 149 56 36 151 37 16 1.33
150 25 22 -35 0 0 15 49 50.5 35 53 -26 150 9 17 150 41 22 149 34 55 151 15 4 1.33
150 2 6 -34 0 0 15 49 35.1 36 54 -27 149 46 5 150 18 2 149 11 52 150 51 34 1.33
149 37 29 -33 0 0 15 49 19.5 36 55 -28 149 21 31 149 53 22 148 47 25 150 26 47 1.33
149 11 31 -32 0 0 15 49 3.7 36 56 -29 148 55 35 149 27 22 148 21 34 150 0 42 1.34
148 44 10 -31 0 0 15 48 47.6 36 57 -30 148 28 16 149 0 0 147 54 16 149 33 17 1.34
148 15 26 -30 0 0 15 48 31.3 36 59 -31 147 59 31 148 31 15 147 25 32 149 4 31 1.34
147 45 15 -29 0 0 15 48 14.8 36 60 -32 147 29 20 148 1 5 146 55 18 148 34 23 1.35
147 13 35 -28 0 0 15 47 58.1 36 61 -33 146 57 38 147 29 27 146 23 32 148 2 49 1.35
146 40 24 -27 0 0 15 47 41.2 36 62 -34 146 24 24 146 56 19 145 50 11 147 29 47 1.35
146 5 39 -26 0 0 15 47 24.1 36 63 -36 145 49 35 146 21 38 145 15 12 146 55 14 1.36
145 29 15 -25 0 0 15 47 6.8 36 64 -37 145 13 5 145 45 19 144 38 30 146 19 6 1.36
144 51 8 -24 0 0 15 46 49.3 36 65 -38 144 34 51 145 7 19 144 0 0 145 41 19 1.37
144 11 13 -23 0 0 15 46 31.6 36 66 -39 143 54 48 144 27 33 143 19 38 145 1 49 1.37
143 29 24 -22 0 0 15 46 13.7 36 68 -40 143 12 49 143 45 53 142 37 17 144 20 29 1.37
142 45 35 -21 0 0 15 45 55.7 35 69 -42 142 28 47 143 2 15 141 52 49 143 37 15 1.38
141 59 36 -20 0 0 15 45 37.4 35 70 -43 141 42 35 142 16 30 141 6 6 142 51 57 1.38
141 11 20 -19 0 0 15 45 19.0 34 71 -44 140 54 3 141 28 29 140 16 58 142 4 28 1.38
140 20 35 -18 0 0 15 45 0.4 34 72 -45 140 3 0 140 38 3 139 25 13 141 14 38 1.39
139 27 10 -17 0 0 15 44 41.6 33 73 -47 139 9 13 139 44 58 138 30 38 140 22 16 1.39
138 30 49 -16 0 0 15 44 22.6 33 74 -48 138 12 27 138 49 2 137 32 57 139 27 8 1.40
137 31 16 -15 0 0 15 44 3.4 32 75 -49 137 12 24 137 49 56 136 31 49 138 28 59 1.40
136 28 8 -14 0 0 15 43 44.1 31 76 -50 136 8 43 136 47 22 135 26 52 137 27 31 1.41
135 21 1 -13 0 0 15 43 24.5 30 77 -52 135 0 56 135 40 53 134 17 36 136 22 19 1.41
134 9 23 -12 0 0 15 43 4.8 29 78 -53 133 48 30 134 30 0 133 3 23 135 12 57 1.41
132 52 33 -11 0 0 15 42 44.8 28 79 -54 132 30 44 133 14 5 131 43 28 133 58 50 1.42
131 29 39 -10 0 0 15 42 24.7 27 80 -56 131 6 41 131 52 17 130 16 46 132 39 14 1.42
129 59 32 - 9 0 0 15 42 4.2 25 81 -57 129 35 7 130 23 32 128 41 53 131 13 11 1.43
128 20 34 - 8 0 0 15 41 43.5 24 82 -58 127 54 18 128 46 19 126 56 45 129 39 22 1.44
126 30 23 - 7 0 0 15 41 22.5 22 83 -60 126 1 38 126 58 27 124 58 12 127 55 56 1.45
124 25 16 - 6 0 0 15 41 1.1 20 83 -61 123 52 59 124 56 34 122 40 57 126 0 9 1.46
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2019 Oct 31.0
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