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Updated: 2020 JAN 28, 17:38 UT
Event Rank : 80
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Mar 29 UT, the 87.9 km diameter asteroid (626) Notburga will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Ara for observers along a path across eastern Western Australia to Derby.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.54 mag to 14.61 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 8727-00561-1 by 626 Notburga on 2020 Mar 29
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
119 20 2 0 0 0 19 7 36.2 33 162 -45 118 55 31 119 44 32 118 29 44 120 10 15 0.12
119 34 1 - 1 0 0 19 7 40.6 35 162 -45 119 9 31 119 58 31 118 43 45 120 24 13 0.12
119 47 53 - 2 0 0 19 7 45.2 36 162 -44 119 23 22 120 12 23 118 57 37 120 38 4 0.12
120 1 38 - 3 0 0 19 7 49.8 37 162 -44 119 37 7 120 26 8 119 11 21 120 51 50 0.12
120 15 16 - 4 0 0 19 7 54.6 38 162 -44 119 50 44 120 39 47 119 24 57 121 5 30 0.12
120 28 48 - 5 0 0 19 7 59.4 39 162 -44 120 4 15 120 53 21 119 38 27 121 19 5 0.12
120 42 15 - 6 0 0 19 8 4.4 40 162 -44 120 17 40 121 6 50 119 51 50 121 32 36 0.12
120 55 38 - 7 0 0 19 8 9.5 41 162 -43 120 31 0 121 20 14 120 5 8 121 46 4 0.12
121 8 56 - 8 0 0 19 8 14.7 42 162 -43 120 44 16 121 33 35 120 18 21 121 59 28 0.12
121 22 11 - 9 0 0 19 8 19.9 43 161 -43 120 57 27 121 46 53 120 31 28 122 12 49 0.12
121 35 22 -10 0 0 19 8 25.3 44 161 -42 121 10 35 122 0 9 120 44 32 122 26 9 0.12
121 48 31 -11 0 0 19 8 30.8 45 161 -42 121 23 40 122 13 22 120 57 33 122 39 27 0.12
122 1 39 -12 0 0 19 8 36.4 46 161 -42 121 36 42 122 26 34 121 10 30 122 52 44 0.12
122 14 45 -13 0 0 19 8 42.1 47 161 -41 121 49 43 122 39 46 121 23 25 123 6 1 0.12
122 27 50 -14 0 0 19 8 47.9 48 161 -41 122 2 42 122 52 57 121 36 19 123 19 18 0.11
122 40 55 -15 0 0 19 8 53.8 49 161 -41 122 15 41 123 6 8 121 49 10 123 32 36 0.11
122 54 0 -16 0 0 19 8 59.7 50 160 -40 122 28 39 123 19 20 122 2 2 123 45 56 0.11
123 7 7 -17 0 0 19 9 5.8 51 160 -40 122 41 38 123 32 34 122 14 53 123 59 18 0.11
123 20 15 -18 0 0 19 9 11.9 52 160 -40 122 54 38 123 45 51 122 27 45 124 12 43 0.11
123 33 25 -19 0 0 19 9 18.2 53 160 -39 123 7 40 123 59 10 122 40 37 124 26 11 0.11
123 46 39 -20 0 0 19 9 24.5 54 159 -39 123 20 44 124 12 33 122 53 32 124 39 44 0.11
123 59 56 -21 0 0 19 9 30.9 55 159 -38 123 33 51 124 26 0 123 6 28 124 53 21 0.11
124 13 17 -22 0 0 19 9 37.4 56 159 -38 123 47 2 124 39 31 123 19 28 125 7 4 0.11
124 26 43 -23 0 0 19 9 43.9 57 159 -37 124 0 17 124 53 9 123 32 32 125 20 54 0.11
124 40 15 -24 0 0 19 9 50.6 58 158 -37 124 13 38 125 6 53 123 45 39 125 34 50 0.11
124 53 54 -25 0 0 19 9 57.3 59 158 -36 124 27 4 125 20 44 123 58 52 125 48 55 0.11
125 7 40 -26 0 0 19 10 4.1 60 157 -36 124 40 36 125 34 44 124 12 11 126 3 9 0.11
125 21 34 -27 0 0 19 10 10.9 61 157 -35 124 54 16 125 48 52 124 25 36 126 17 32 0.11
125 35 37 -28 0 0 19 10 17.9 62 157 -35 125 8 4 126 3 10 124 39 9 126 32 6 0.11
125 49 50 -29 0 0 19 10 24.8 63 156 -34 125 22 2 126 17 39 124 52 50 126 46 51 0.11
126 4 14 -30 0 0 19 10 31.9 64 156 -34 125 36 9 126 32 20 125 6 40 127 1 49 0.11
126 18 50 -31 0 0 19 10 39.0 65 155 -33 125 50 28 126 47 13 125 20 40 127 17 1 0.11
126 33 39 -32 0 0 19 10 46.2 66 154 -33 126 4 58 127 2 20 125 34 51 127 32 28 0.11
126 48 42 -33 0 0 19 10 53.4 67 154 -32 126 19 42 127 17 43 125 49 15 127 48 11 0.11
127 4 1 -34 0 0 19 11 0.7 68 153 -32 126 34 40 127 33 22 126 3 51 128 4 12 0.10
127 19 35 -35 0 0 19 11 8.1 69 152 -31 126 49 53 127 49 18 126 18 42 128 20 31 0.10
127 35 28 -36 0 0 19 11 15.5 70 151 -31 127 5 23 128 5 34 126 33 49 128 37 11 0.10
127 51 40 -37 0 0 19 11 22.9 71 150 -30 127 21 12 128 22 10 126 49 12 128 54 12 0.10
128 8 13 -38 0 0 19 11 30.4 72 149 -30 127 37 20 128 39 8 127 4 54 129 11 37 0.10
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 28.0
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