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Updated: 2020 Mar 14, 22:10 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Apr 04 UT, the 64 km diameter asteroid (546) Herodias will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across northern West Australia, Northern Territory and South Australia, passing over Port Augusta, Adelaide and Mount Gambier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.33 mag to 14.65 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 269-123063 by 546 Herodias on 2020 Apr 4
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. 21 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. 99 54 42 ... .. .. 100 17 54 ....
100 39 59 20 0 0 17 26 24.6 1 130 -64 100 9 2 101 10 39 99 45 55 101 33 12 ....
101 53 31 19 0 0 17 26 25.1 3 130 -65 101 23 24 102 23 22 101 0 55 102 45 21 0.35
103 4 1 18 0 0 17 26 26.1 4 130 -66 102 34 39 103 33 9 102 12 45 103 54 35 0.38
104 11 45 17 0 0 17 26 27.4 6 131 -66 103 43 4 104 40 13 103 21 41 105 1 11 0.39
105 16 57 16 0 0 17 26 29.2 7 131 -67 104 48 54 105 44 49 104 27 59 106 5 20 0.40
106 19 49 15 0 0 17 26 31.2 9 131 -68 105 52 20 106 47 8 105 31 51 107 7 15 0.40
107 20 32 14 0 0 17 26 33.7 10 132 -68 106 53 34 107 47 20 106 33 28 108 7 5 0.40
108 19 15 13 0 0 17 26 36.4 11 132 -69 107 52 45 108 45 35 107 33 1 109 5 0 0.41
109 16 6 12 0 0 17 26 39.4 13 132 -69 108 50 3 109 42 1 108 30 39 110 1 7 0.41
110 11 14 11 0 0 17 26 42.8 14 132 -70 109 45 35 110 36 45 109 26 29 110 55 34 0.41
111 4 45 10 0 0 17 26 46.4 15 132 -70 110 39 28 111 29 55 110 20 39 111 48 28 0.41
111 56 46 9 0 0 17 26 50.3 17 132 -70 111 31 50 112 21 36 111 13 16 112 39 55 0.41
112 47 23 8 0 0 17 26 54.5 18 132 -70 112 22 45 113 11 54 112 4 26 113 29 59 0.41
113 36 40 7 0 0 17 26 58.9 19 133 -70 113 12 20 114 0 54 112 54 13 114 18 48 0.41
114 24 43 6 0 0 17 27 3.6 21 133 -70 114 0 39 114 48 42 113 42 44 115 6 24 0.42
115 11 37 5 0 0 17 27 8.5 22 133 -70 114 47 47 115 35 21 114 30 4 115 52 52 0.42
115 57 25 4 0 0 17 27 13.7 23 133 -70 115 33 48 116 20 55 115 16 15 116 38 17 0.42
116 42 11 3 0 0 17 27 19.1 24 132 -70 116 18 46 117 5 29 116 1 23 117 22 42 0.42
117 25 59 2 0 0 17 27 24.7 26 132 -70 117 2 46 117 49 6 116 45 31 118 6 11 0.42
118 8 52 1 0 0 17 27 30.6 27 132 -69 117 45 49 118 31 49 117 28 42 118 48 47 0.42
118 50 54 0 0 0 17 27 36.6 28 132 -69 118 28 0 119 13 42 118 11 0 119 30 33 0.42
119 32 7 - 1 0 0 17 27 42.9 29 132 -69 119 9 22 119 54 47 118 52 28 120 11 32 0.42
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
147 0 0 -48 6 8 17 35 8.5 68 66 -30 -48 50 27 -47 22 16 -49 23 35 -46 50 3 0.39
148 0 0 -49 31 3 17 35 24.2 68 61 -29 -50 14 57 -48 47 34 -50 47 46 -48 15 38 0.39
149 0 0 -50 52 39 17 35 39.3 68 57 -28 -51 36 6 -50 9 37 -52 8 34 -49 37 59 0.39
150 0 0 -52 10 55 17 35 53.9 68 52 -27 -52 53 52 -51 28 22 -53 25 58 -50 57 6 0.39
151 0 0 -53 25 53 17 36 7.8 68 48 -26 -54 8 18 -52 43 52 -54 39 59 -52 12 59 0.39
152 0 0 -54 37 35 17 36 21.2 67 44 -24 -55 19 25 -53 56 8 -55 50 40 -53 25 39 0.39
153 0 0 -55 46 4 17 36 33.9 67 40 -23 -56 27 18 -55 5 12 -56 58 5 -54 35 9 0.39
154 0 0 -56 51 25 17 36 46.1 66 36 -22 -57 32 2 -56 11 10 -58 2 20 -55 41 33 0.39
155 0 0 -57 53 44 17 36 57.7 66 33 -21 -58 33 41 -57 14 5 -59 3 31 -56 44 56 0.39
156 0 0 -58 53 5 17 37 8.8 65 30 -21 -59 32 24 -58 14 5 -60 1 44 -57 45 23 0.39
157 0 0 -59 49 36 17 37 19.3 65 27 -20 -60 28 15 -59 11 15 -60 57 5 -58 43 1 0.39
158 0 0 -60 43 23 17 37 29.3 64 24 -19 -61 21 23 -60 5 41 -61 49 42 -59 37 55 0.39
159 0 0 -61 34 34 17 37 38.8 64 22 -18 -62 11 53 -60 57 30 -62 39 43 -60 30 13 0.39
160 0 0 -62 23 14 17 37 47.9 63 19 -17 -62 59 55 -61 46 49 -63 27 15 -61 20 0 0.39
161 0 0 -63 9 32 17 37 56.6 62 17 -17 -63 45 33 -62 33 46 -64 12 24 -62 7 24 0.39
162 0 0 -63 53 34 17 38 4.8 62 15 -16 -64 28 57 -63 18 26 -64 55 18 -62 52 32 0.39
163 0 0 -64 35 27 17 38 12.6 61 13 -15 -65 10 12 -64 0 56 -65 36 5 -63 35 29 0.39
164 0 0 -65 15 17 17 38 20.1 61 11 -15 -65 49 24 -64 41 23 -66 14 49 -64 16 23 0.39
165 0 0 -65 53 11 17 38 27.2 60 9 -14 -66 26 42 -65 19 52 -66 51 39 -64 55 19 0.39
166 0 0 -66 29 15 17 38 34.0 60 7 -13 -67 2 10 -65 56 31 -67 26 41 -65 32 23 0.39
167 0 0 -67 3 34 17 38 40.5 59 5 -13 -67 35 54 -66 31 25 -67 59 59 -66 7 42 0.39
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Mar 14.0
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