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Updated: 2020 AUG 15, 19:02 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Sep 07 UT, the 104.1 km diameter asteroid (134) Sophrosyne will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across Australiafrom Ceduna across eastern South Australia and into Queensland at low and decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.30 mag to 13.66 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 277-159432 by 134 Sophrosyne on 2020 Sep 7
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
131 50 3 -39 58 29 16 9 22.5 22 242 -53 130 23 2 -40 24 29 133 20 24 -39 29 31 129 51 27 -40 33 29 133 54 57 -39 17 54 2.08
131 52 39 -39 42 31 16 9 25.0 22 242 -54 130 25 31 -40 8 45 133 23 11 -39 13 17 129 53 54 -40 17 49 133 57 49 -39 1 33 2.08
131 55 26 -39 26 28 16 9 27.5 21 242 -54 130 28 10 -39 52 56 133 26 11 -38 56 56 129 56 32 -40 2 4 134 0 55 -38 45 5 2.08
131 58 26 -39 10 18 16 9 30.0 21 242 -54 130 31 1 -39 37 2 133 29 24 -38 40 29 129 59 20 -39 46 15 134 4 14 -38 28 30 2.08
132 1 37 -38 54 3 16 9 32.5 21 242 -54 130 34 3 -39 21 2 133 32 50 -38 23 55 130 2 19 -39 30 21 134 7 47 -38 11 47 2.08
132 5 1 -38 37 42 16 9 35.0 21 242 -54 130 37 16 -39 4 57 133 36 29 -38 7 14 130 5 29 -39 14 21 134 11 34 -37 54 58 2.08
132 8 37 -38 21 15 16 9 37.4 21 242 -55 130 40 40 -38 48 47 133 40 23 -37 50 25 130 8 50 -38 58 17 134 15 36 -37 38 1 2.09
132 12 26 -38 4 41 16 9 39.9 20 241 -55 130 44 16 -38 32 31 133 44 30 -37 33 30 130 12 22 -38 42 7 134 19 52 -37 20 56 2.09
132 16 28 -37 48 1 16 9 42.4 20 241 -55 130 48 3 -38 16 9 133 48 52 -37 16 27 130 16 5 -38 25 51 134 24 23 -37 3 43 2.09
132 20 43 -37 31 13 16 9 44.9 20 241 -55 130 52 3 -37 59 42 133 53 29 -36 59 15 130 20 0 -38 9 30 134 29 10 -36 46 21 2.09
132 25 11 -37 14 19 16 9 47.4 20 241 -56 130 56 14 -37 43 8 133 58 20 -36 41 56 130 24 7 -37 53 2 134 34 12 -36 28 50 2.09
132 29 53 -36 57 17 16 9 49.9 20 241 -56 131 0 38 -37 26 27 134 3 27 -36 24 28 130 28 25 -37 36 29 134 39 31 -36 11 11 2.09
132 34 48 -36 40 8 16 9 52.4 20 241 -56 131 5 14 -37 9 40 134 8 50 -36 6 50 130 32 56 -37 19 49 134 45 6 -35 53 21 2.09
132 39 59 -36 22 51 16 9 54.8 19 241 -56 131 10 3 -36 52 46 134 14 29 -35 49 4 130 37 39 -37 3 3 134 50 59 -35 35 22 2.09
132 45 23 -36 5 25 16 9 57.3 19 241 -56 131 15 5 -36 35 45 134 20 25 -35 31 8 130 42 34 -36 46 10 134 57 9 -35 17 12 2.10
132 51 3 -35 47 51 16 9 59.8 19 240 -57 131 20 21 -36 18 37 134 26 39 -35 13 1 130 47 42 -36 29 10 135 3 38 -34 58 52 2.10
132 56 59 -35 30 8 16 10 2.3 19 240 -57 131 25 50 -36 1 21 134 33 10 -34 54 44 130 53 4 -36 12 3 135 10 26 -34 40 20 2.10
133 3 10 -35 12 16 16 10 4.8 18 240 -57 131 31 34 -35 43 58 134 40 0 -34 36 16 130 58 39 -35 54 48 135 17 34 -34 21 36 2.10
133 9 38 -34 54 14 16 10 7.3 18 240 -57 131 37 31 -35 26 26 134 47 9 -34 17 36 131 4 27 -35 37 26 135 25 3 -34 2 39 2.10
133 16 23 -34 36 2 16 10 9.7 18 240 -57 131 43 44 -35 8 45 134 54 38 -33 58 44 131 10 30 -35 19 55 135 32 53 -33 43 28 2.10
133 23 25 -34 17 40 16 10 12.2 18 240 -58 131 50 11 -34 50 56 135 2 28 -33 39 39 131 16 47 -35 2 16 135 41 6 -33 24 4 2.10
133 30 46 -33 59 6 16 10 14.7 17 240 -58 131 56 55 -34 32 57 135 10 41 -33 20 21 131 23 20 -34 44 29 135 49 42 -33 4 25 2.11
133 38 25 -33 40 21 16 10 17.2 17 239 -58 132 3 55 -34 14 49 135 19 15 -33 0 47 131 30 7 -34 26 32 135 58 43 -32 44 30 2.11
133 46 24 -33 21 24 16 10 19.7 17 239 -58 132 11 11 -33 56 31 135 28 14 -32 40 59 131 37 11 -34 8 26 136 8 10 -32 24 18 2.11
133 54 44 -33 2 14 16 10 22.2 17 239 -58 132 18 45 -33 38 2 135 37 38 -32 20 54 131 44 31 -33 50 10 136 18 5 -32 3 48 2.11
134 3 25 -32 42 50 16 10 24.7 16 239 -59 132 26 37 -33 19 22 135 47 29 -32 0 32 131 52 8 -33 31 44 136 28 29 -31 42 59 2.11
134 12 29 -32 23 13 16 10 27.1 16 239 -59 132 34 47 -33 0 30 135 57 48 -31 39 52 132 0 3 -33 13 7 136 39 25 -31 21 49 2.11
134 21 56 -32 3 19 16 10 29.6 16 239 -59 132 43 17 -32 41 26 136 8 37 -31 18 52 132 8 16 -32 54 18 136 50 54 -31 0 17 2.12
134 31 48 -31 43 10 16 10 32.1 16 239 -59 132 52 8 -32 22 10 136 19 58 -30 57 30 132 16 48 -32 35 17 137 2 59 -30 38 20 2.12
134 42 7 -31 22 44 16 10 34.6 15 238 -59 133 1 19 -32 2 40 136 31 54 -30 35 45 132 25 40 -32 16 4 137 15 42 -30 15 58 2.12
134 52 53 -31 2 0 16 10 37.1 15 238 -60 133 10 53 -31 42 55 136 44 26 -30 13 36 132 34 53 -31 56 38 137 29 8 -29 53 7 2.12
135 4 9 -30 40 55 16 10 39.6 15 238 -60 133 20 50 -31 22 55 136 57 38 -29 51 0 132 44 27 -31 36 58 137 43 19 -29 29 44 2.13
135 15 56 -30 19 30 16 10 42.1 14 238 -60 133 31 13 -31 2 40 137 11 34 -29 27 53 132 54 25 -31 17 3 137 58 21 -29 5 47 2.13
135 28 16 -29 57 42 16 10 44.5 14 238 -60 133 42 1 -30 42 7 137 26 17 -29 4 14 133 4 46 -30 56 52 138 14 19 -28 41 11 2.13
135 41 14 -29 35 30 16 10 47.0 13 238 -60 133 53 16 -30 21 15 137 41 53 -28 39 59 133 15 33 -30 36 24 138 31 20 -28 15 51 2.13
135 54 50 -29 12 51 16 10 49.5 13 237 -60 134 5 1 -30 0 4 137 58 27 -28 15 4 133 26 47 -30 15 39 138 49 30 -27 49 42 2.14
136 9 9 -28 49 43 16 10 52.0 13 237 -61 134 17 18 -29 38 33 138 16 6 -27 49 23 133 38 29 -29 54 35 139 9 2 -27 22 37 2.14
136 24 14 -28 26 3 16 10 54.5 12 237 -61 134 30 8 -29 16 38 138 34 59 -27 22 49 133 50 41 -29 33 10 139 30 7 -26 54 25 2.14
136 40 11 -28 1 47 16 10 57.0 12 237 -61 134 43 34 -28 54 19 138 55 17 -26 55 16 134 3 27 -29 11 23 139 53 3 -26 24 54 2.15
136 57 4 -27 36 51 16 10 59.4 11 237 -61 134 57 39 -28 31 33 139 17 15 -26 26 32 134 16 47 -28 49 13 140 18 13 -25 53 48 2.15
137 15 1 -27 11 12 16 11 1.9 11 237 -61 135 12 27 -28 8 18 139 41 12 -25 56 24 134 30 44 -28 26 36 140 46 11 -25 20 43 2.16
137 34 10 -26 44 41 16 11 4.4 11 236 -61 135 28 1 -27 44 30 140 7 34 -25 24 33 134 45 23 -28 3 32 141 17 46 -24 45 2 2.16
137 54 42 -26 17 13 16 11 6.9 10 236 -61 135 44 26 -27 20 8 140 36 58 -24 50 31 135 0 46 -27 39 57 141 54 20 -24 5 46 2.17
138 16 49 -25 48 36 16 11 9.4 9 236 -61 136 1 48 -26 55 6 141 10 26 -24 13 35 135 16 58 -27 15 48 142 38 30 -23 21 3 2.18
138 40 51 -25 18 39 16 11 11.9 9 236 -61 136 20 14 -26 29 19 141 49 37 -23 32 33 135 34 4 -26 51 2 143 36 23 -22 26 28 2.19
139 7 10 -24 47 5 16 11 14.4 8 236 -61 136 39 51 -26 2 42 142 37 55 -22 44 58 135 52 10 -26 25 33 145 17 14 -21 0 58 2.20
139 36 21 -24 13 27 16 11 16.8 8 235 -61 137 0 50 -25 35 7 143 44 37 -21 44 9 136 11 24 -25 59 17 ... .. .. .. .. .. 2.22
140 9 17 -23 37 9 16 11 19.3 7 235 -61 137 23 24 -25 6 25 ... .. .. .. .. .. 136 31 55 -25 32 7 ... .. .. .. .. .. 2.25
140 47 23 -22 57 8 16 11 21.8 6 235 -61 137 47 51 -24 36 23 ... .. .. .. .. .. 136 53 55 -25 3 53 ... .. .. .. .. .. 2.29
141 33 24 -22 11 28 16 11 24.3 5 234 -61 138 14 35 -24 4 44 ... .. .. .. .. .. 137 17 39 -24 34 27 ... .. .. .. .. .. 2.37
142 33 53 -21 15 25 16 11 26.8 4 234 -60 138 44 8 -23 31 4 ... .. .. .. .. .. 137 43 28 -24 3 31 ... .. .. .. .. .. 2.56
144 22 21 -19 44 58 16 11 29.3 1 233 -60 139 17 22 -22 54 46 ... .. .. .. .. .. 138 11 49 -23 30 47 ... .. .. .. .. .. 4.13
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Aug 15.0
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