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Updated: 2020 DEC 31, 00:31 UT
Event Rank : 41
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jan 07 UT, the 34.4014398239753 km diameter asteroid (3368) Duncombe will occult a 7.5 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a path across central New South Wales (from near Sydney) and across south-western Queensland at low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 10.03 mag to 17.53 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7332-00318-1 by 3368 Duncombe on 2021 Jan 7
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
138 38 34 -23 5 10 16 44 40.8 4 123 -37 140 2 25 -23 47 43 136 25 41 -21 50 20 143 12 36 -25 12 1 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
140 25 42 -24 25 23 16 44 41.7 6 123 -35 141 28 37 -24 54 5 139 11 13 -23 49 0 144 12 0 -26 0 28 ... .. .. .. .. .. 0.99
141 44 22 -25 26 51 16 44 42.6 8 122 -34 142 37 46 -25 49 12 140 45 3 -25 0 33 145 4 48 -26 44 33 134 52 45 -21 49 14 1.06
142 49 20 -26 19 16 16 44 43.5 9 122 -32 143 37 1 -26 37 46 141 57 52 -25 58 14 145 52 44 -27 25 24 138 23 23 -24 17 53 1.09
143 45 49 -27 6 4 16 44 44.3 10 121 -31 144 29 37 -27 21 55 142 59 19 -26 48 24 146 36 56 -28 3 45 140 0 54 -25 32 7 1.11
144 36 24 -27 48 56 16 44 45.2 11 121 -30 145 17 20 -28 2 49 143 53 24 -27 33 40 147 18 6 -28 40 4 141 15 10 -26 31 0 1.11
145 22 34 -28 28 52 16 44 46.1 12 120 -29 146 1 17 -28 41 12 144 42 11 -28 15 24 147 56 48 -29 14 44 142 17 21 -27 21 53 1.12
146 5 16 -29 6 28 16 44 47.0 13 120 -28 146 42 14 -29 17 34 145 26 56 -28 54 27 148 33 25 -29 47 59 143 11 49 -28 7 37 1.13
146 45 10 -29 42 12 16 44 47.8 14 120 -27 147 20 41 -29 52 15 146 8 29 -29 31 21 149 8 13 -30 20 2 144 0 48 -28 49 43 1.13
147 22 43 -30 16 21 16 44 48.7 15 119 -27 147 57 2 -30 25 32 146 47 24 -30 6 29 149 41 28 -30 51 1 144 45 38 -29 29 2 1.13
147 58 19 -30 49 11 16 44 49.6 15 119 -26 148 31 36 -30 57 36 147 24 8 -30 40 9 150 13 21 -31 21 4 145 27 11 -30 6 9 1.13
148 32 12 -31 20 51 16 44 50.5 16 118 -25 149 4 36 -31 28 37 147 59 0 -31 12 32 150 44 1 -31 50 17 146 6 4 -30 41 28 1.13
149 4 35 -31 51 31 16 44 51.4 17 118 -25 149 36 13 -31 58 41 148 32 14 -31 43 51 151 13 35 -32 18 46 146 42 43 -31 15 17 1.14
149 35 40 -32 21 17 16 44 52.2 17 118 -24 150 6 38 -32 27 56 149 4 4 -32 14 11 151 42 11 -32 46 35 147 17 28 -31 47 49 1.14
150 5 35 -32 50 16 16 44 53.1 18 117 -23 150 35 57 -32 56 27 149 34 38 -32 43 40 152 9 53 -33 13 46 147 50 34 -32 19 15 1.14
150 34 27 -33 18 32 16 44 54.0 18 117 -23 151 4 18 -33 24 17 150 4 4 -33 12 23 152 36 47 -33 40 25 148 22 14 -32 49 42 1.14
151 2 23 -33 46 8 16 44 54.9 19 117 -22 151 31 45 -33 51 30 150 32 30 -33 40 25 153 2 56 -34 6 32 148 52 38 -33 19 17 1.14
151 29 26 -34 13 10 16 44 55.7 19 116 -21 151 58 23 -34 18 10 151 0 1 -34 7 49 153 28 24 -34 32 11 149 21 53 -33 48 6 1.14
151 55 43 -34 39 39 16 44 56.6 20 116 -21 152 24 17 -34 44 20 151 26 42 -34 34 39 153 53 14 -34 57 24 149 50 8 -34 16 13 1.14
152 21 16 -35 5 38 16 44 57.5 21 116 -20 152 49 29 -35 10 1 151 52 38 -35 0 57 154 17 29 -35 22 12 150 17 26 -34 43 42 1.14
152 46 9 -35 31 10 16 44 58.4 21 115 -20 153 14 4 -35 35 15 152 17 51 -35 26 47 154 41 11 -35 46 37 150 43 55 -35 10 37 1.14
153 10 26 -35 56 16 16 44 59.3 21 115 -19 153 38 3 -36 0 5 152 42 25 -35 52 10 155 4 23 -36 10 42 151 9 37 -35 37 0 1.14
153 34 8 -36 20 58 16 45 0.1 22 115 -19 154 1 30 -36 24 33 153 6 24 -36 17 8 155 27 6 -36 34 26 151 34 37 -36 2 54 1.14
153 57 18 -36 45 18 16 45 1.0 22 114 -18 154 24 26 -36 48 39 153 29 49 -36 41 43 155 49 23 -36 57 51 151 58 58 -36 28 21 1.14
154 19 59 -37 9 18 16 45 1.9 23 114 -18 154 46 54 -37 12 25 153 52 43 -37 5 56 156 11 15 -37 20 58 152 22 42 -36 53 23 1.14
154 42 11 -37 32 58 16 45 2.8 23 114 -17 155 8 54 -37 35 53 154 15 8 -37 29 49 156 32 43 -37 43 49 152 45 53 -37 18 2 1.14
155 3 57 -37 56 19 16 45 3.7 24 113 -17 155 30 30 -37 59 3 154 37 6 -37 53 23 156 53 48 -38 6 24 153 8 32 -37 42 19 1.14
155 25 19 -38 19 24 16 45 4.5 24 113 -16 155 51 42 -38 21 56 154 58 38 -38 16 39 157 14 33 -38 28 44 153 30 42 -38 6 16 1.14
155 46 17 -38 42 12 16 45 5.4 25 113 -16 156 12 32 -38 44 33 155 19 46 -38 39 38 157 34 58 -38 50 50 153 52 25 -38 29 54 1.14
156 6 54 -39 4 44 16 45 6.3 25 112 -15 156 33 0 -39 6 56 155 40 31 -39 2 21 157 55 4 -39 12 43 154 13 41 -38 53 14 1.14
156 27 10 -39 27 3 16 45 7.2 25 112 -15 156 53 9 -39 29 4 156 0 54 -39 24 49 158 14 52 -39 34 22 154 34 33 -39 16 17 1.14
156 47 6 -39 49 7 16 45 8.0 26 112 -14 157 12 59 -39 51 0 156 20 57 -39 47 3 158 34 23 -39 55 50 154 55 2 -39 39 4 1.14
157 6 44 -40 10 58 16 45 8.9 26 111 -14 157 32 30 -40 12 42 156 40 41 -40 9 3 158 53 38 -40 17 5 155 15 10 -40 1 36 1.14
157 26 4 -40 32 37 16 45 9.8 26 111 -14 157 51 45 -40 34 12 157 0 7 -40 30 51 159 12 37 -40 38 10 155 34 57 -40 23 54 1.14
157 45 7 -40 54 3 16 45 10.7 27 111 -13 158 10 43 -40 55 30 157 19 15 -40 52 26 159 31 22 -40 59 4 155 54 24 -40 45 58 1.14
158 3 54 -41 15 19 16 45 11.6 27 110 -13 158 29 26 -41 16 38 157 38 7 -41 13 49 159 49 53 -41 19 47 156 13 33 -41 7 49 1.14
158 22 26 -41 36 23 16 45 12.4 27 110 -12 158 47 55 -41 37 35 157 56 43 -41 35 1 160 8 11 -41 40 21 156 32 24 -41 29 28 1.14
158 40 44 -41 57 17 16 45 13.3 28 110 -12 159 6 9 -41 58 21 158 15 4 -41 56 3 160 26 16 -42 0 46 156 50 59 -41 50 55 1.14
158 58 47 -42 18 1 16 45 14.2 28 109 -11 159 24 9 -42 18 59 158 33 11 -42 16 54 160 44 9 -42 21 2 157 9 17 -42 12 11 1.14
159 16 37 -42 38 36 16 45 15.1 28 109 -11 159 41 57 -42 39 26 158 51 4 -42 37 36 161 1 50 -42 41 9 157 27 20 -42 33 17 1.14
159 34 15 -42 59 1 16 45 15.9 29 109 -11 159 59 33 -42 59 45 159 8 44 -42 58 8 161 19 21 -43 1 7 157 45 9 -42 54 12 1.14
159 51 40 -43 19 18 16 45 16.8 29 108 -10 160 16 57 -43 19 55 159 26 11 -43 18 31 161 36 40 -43 20 58 158 2 44 -43 14 57 1.14
160 8 54 -43 39 26 16 45 17.7 29 108 -10 160 34 9 -43 39 58 159 43 26 -43 38 46 161 53 49 -43 40 41 158 20 5 -43 35 34 1.14
160 25 57 -43 59 26 16 45 18.6 30 108 -10 160 51 11 -43 59 52 160 0 30 -43 58 52 162 10 49 -44 0 17 158 37 14 -43 56 1 1.14
160 42 49 -44 19 19 16 45 19.5 30 107 -9 161 8 2 -44 19 38 160 17 23 -44 18 51 162 27 39 -44 19 46 158 54 10 -44 16 19 1.14
160 59 31 -44 39 4 16 45 20.3 30 107 -9 161 24 44 -44 39 18 160 34 5 -44 38 42 162 44 20 -44 39 8 159 10 55 -44 36 30 1.14
161 16 3 -44 58 42 16 45 21.2 31 107 -8 161 41 15 -44 58 50 160 50 37 -44 58 25 163 0 53 -44 58 23 159 27 28 -44 56 32 1.14
161 32 25 -45 18 13 16 45 22.1 31 106 -8 161 57 38 -45 18 16 161 6 59 -45 18 2 163 17 17 -45 17 32 159 43 51 -45 16 27 1.14
161 48 38 -45 37 37 16 45 23.0 31 106 -8 162 13 52 -45 37 35 161 23 12 -45 37 31 163 33 33 -45 36 35 160 0 3 -45 36 15 1.14
162 4 43 -45 56 55 16 45 23.9 31 106 -7 162 29 57 -45 56 47 161 39 16 -45 56 54 163 49 42 -45 55 32 160 16 5 -45 55 56 1.14
162 20 39 -46 16 7 16 45 24.7 32 105 -7 162 45 55 -46 15 54 161 55 11 -46 16 11 164 5 43 -46 14 23 160 31 57 -46 15 30 1.14
162 36 27 -46 35 12 16 45 25.6 32 105 -7 163 1 44 -46 34 55 162 10 58 -46 35 22 164 21 38 -46 33 8 160 47 41 -46 34 57 1.14
162 52 8 -46 54 12 16 45 26.5 32 105 -6 163 17 26 -46 53 50 162 26 37 -46 54 27 164 37 25 -46 51 49 161 3 15 -46 54 18 1.14
163 7 41 -47 13 7 16 45 27.4 32 104 -6 163 33 1 -47 12 40 162 42 8 -47 13 26 164 53 6 -47 10 24 161 18 41 -47 13 33 1.14
163 23 6 -47 31 56 16 45 28.2 33 104 -6 163 48 29 -47 31 24 162 57 32 -47 32 19 165 8 41 -47 28 54 161 33 58 -47 32 42 1.14
163 38 25 -47 50 39 16 45 29.1 33 104 -5 164 3 50 -47 50 4 163 12 48 -47 51 8 165 24 10 -47 47 19 161 49 7 -47 51 46 1.14
163 53 37 -48 9 18 16 45 30.0 33 103 -5 164 19 5 -48 8 38 163 27 58 -48 9 51 165 39 33 -48 5 40 162 4 9 -48 10 44 1.14
164 8 43 -48 27 52 16 45 30.9 33 103 -5 164 34 13 -48 27 8 163 43 1 -48 28 29 165 54 51 -48 23 56 162 19 3 -48 29 37 1.14
164 23 42 -48 46 22 16 45 31.8 34 102 -4 164 49 16 -48 45 33 163 57 57 -48 47 3 166 10 4 -48 42 8 162 33 50 -48 48 25 1.14
164 38 36 -49 4 46 16 45 32.6 34 102 -4 165 4 13 -49 3 53 164 12 48 -49 5 32 166 25 11 -49 0 15 162 48 30 -49 7 8 1.14
164 53 24 -49 23 7 16 45 33.5 34 102 -4 165 19 4 -49 22 10 164 27 32 -49 23 57 166 40 14 -49 18 19 163 3 3 -49 25 46 1.14
165 8 6 -49 41 23 16 45 34.4 34 101 -3 165 33 50 -49 40 22 164 42 11 -49 42 17 166 55 12 -49 36 18 163 17 30 -49 44 20 1.14
165 22 43 -49 59 35 16 45 35.3 34 101 -3 165 48 31 -49 58 30 164 56 44 -50 0 33 167 10 5 -49 54 14 163 31 51 -50 2 50 1.14
165 37 15 -50 17 43 16 45 36.1 35 101 -3 166 3 7 -50 16 34 165 11 12 -50 18 45 167 24 54 -50 12 6 163 46 5 -50 21 15 1.14
165 51 42 -50 35 47 16 45 37.0 35 100 -2 166 17 39 -50 34 34 165 25 34 -50 36 53 167 39 40 -50 29 54 164 0 14 -50 39 36 1.14
166 6 5 -50 53 48 16 45 37.9 35 100 -2 166 32 6 -50 52 31 165 39 52 -50 54 58 167 54 21 -50 47 39 164 14 17 -50 57 53 1.14
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Dec 31.0
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