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Updated: 2021 May 17, 22:41 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jun 30 UT, the 21 km diameter asteroid (486) Cremona will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across eastern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.48 mag to 14.23 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.2 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 404-059262 by 486 Cremona on 2021 Jun 30
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
126 25 21 -10 14 25 11 6 19.3 76 88 -24 126 31 18 -10 13 29 126 19 23 -10 15 21 126 43 38 -10 11 32 126 7 1 -10 17 17 0.25
126 27 28 -10 36 18 11 6 25.4 76 87 -24 126 33 26 -10 35 22 126 21 30 -10 37 14 126 45 47 -10 33 25 126 9 7 -10 39 11 0.25
126 29 34 -10 58 12 11 6 31.6 76 85 -25 126 35 32 -10 57 16 126 23 35 -10 59 8 126 47 54 -10 55 18 126 11 12 -11 1 4 0.25
126 31 38 -11 20 6 11 6 37.7 76 84 -25 126 37 37 -11 19 9 126 25 39 -11 21 2 126 50 0 -11 17 12 126 13 15 -11 22 58 0.25
126 33 41 -11 41 59 11 6 43.9 76 82 -25 126 39 40 -11 41 3 126 27 42 -11 42 56 126 52 4 -11 39 6 126 15 16 -11 44 52 0.25
126 35 42 -12 3 54 11 6 50.0 76 81 -25 126 41 42 -12 2 57 126 29 42 -12 4 50 126 54 7 -12 0 59 126 17 16 -12 6 47 0.25
126 37 42 -12 25 48 11 6 56.2 76 80 -25 126 43 42 -12 24 51 126 31 41 -12 26 45 126 56 8 -12 22 54 126 19 14 -12 28 41 0.25
126 39 40 -12 47 43 11 7 2.3 76 78 -25 126 45 40 -12 46 46 126 33 39 -12 48 39 126 58 7 -12 44 48 126 21 10 -12 50 36 0.25
126 41 36 -13 9 38 11 7 8.5 76 77 -26 126 47 37 -13 8 41 126 35 34 -13 10 34 127 0 5 -13 6 43 126 23 5 -13 12 32 0.25
126 43 31 -13 31 33 11 7 14.6 76 75 -26 126 49 33 -13 30 36 126 37 29 -13 32 30 127 2 2 -13 28 38 126 24 58 -13 34 27 0.25
126 45 24 -13 53 29 11 7 20.8 76 74 -26 126 51 27 -13 52 32 126 39 22 -13 54 26 127 3 57 -13 50 34 126 26 50 -13 56 24 0.25
126 47 16 -14 15 26 11 7 26.9 76 72 -26 126 53 19 -14 14 29 126 41 13 -14 16 23 127 5 50 -14 12 30 126 28 40 -14 18 20 0.25
126 49 6 -14 37 23 11 7 33.1 76 71 -26 126 55 10 -14 36 26 126 43 3 -14 38 20 127 7 42 -14 34 27 126 30 29 -14 40 18 0.25
126 50 55 -14 59 21 11 7 39.2 76 69 -26 126 57 0 -14 58 23 126 44 51 -15 0 18 127 9 33 -14 56 24 126 32 16 -15 2 16 0.25
126 52 43 -15 21 19 11 7 45.4 75 68 -27 126 58 48 -15 20 22 126 46 38 -15 22 16 127 11 23 -15 18 23 126 34 1 -15 24 15 0.25
126 54 29 -15 43 18 11 7 51.5 75 67 -27 127 0 34 -15 42 21 126 48 23 -15 44 16 127 13 11 -15 40 22 126 35 45 -15 46 14 0.25
126 56 14 -16 5 18 11 7 57.7 75 65 -27 127 2 20 -16 4 21 126 50 7 -16 6 16 127 14 57 -16 2 21 126 37 28 -16 8 14 0.25
126 57 57 -16 27 19 11 8 3.8 75 64 -27 127 4 4 -16 26 22 126 51 50 -16 28 17 127 16 43 -16 24 22 126 39 9 -16 30 16 0.25
126 59 39 -16 49 21 11 8 10.0 75 63 -27 127 5 46 -16 48 23 126 53 31 -16 50 19 127 18 27 -16 46 23 126 40 49 -16 52 18 0.25
127 1 19 -17 11 24 11 8 16.1 75 61 -27 127 7 28 -17 10 26 126 55 11 -17 12 22 127 20 9 -17 8 26 126 42 27 -17 14 21 0.25
127 2 59 -17 33 28 11 8 22.3 75 60 -28 127 9 7 -17 32 30 126 56 50 -17 34 26 127 21 51 -17 30 29 126 44 4 -17 36 25 0.24
127 4 36 -17 55 33 11 8 28.4 75 59 -28 127 10 46 -17 54 35 126 58 27 -17 56 31 127 23 31 -17 52 34 126 45 40 -17 58 30 0.24
127 6 13 -18 17 39 11 8 34.6 74 57 -28 127 12 23 -18 16 41 127 0 2 -18 18 37 127 25 10 -18 14 40 126 47 14 -18 20 37 0.24
127 7 48 -18 39 46 11 8 40.7 74 56 -28 127 13 59 -18 38 48 127 1 37 -18 40 44 127 26 48 -18 36 47 126 48 47 -18 42 45 0.24
127 9 22 -19 1 55 11 8 46.9 74 55 -28 127 15 34 -19 0 56 127 3 10 -19 2 53 127 28 24 -18 58 55 126 50 18 -19 4 54 0.24
127 10 55 -19 24 5 11 8 53.0 74 54 -28 127 17 7 -19 23 6 127 4 42 -19 25 3 127 29 59 -19 21 5 126 51 48 -19 27 4 0.24
127 12 26 -19 46 16 11 8 59.2 74 53 -29 127 18 40 -19 45 17 127 6 12 -19 47 15 127 31 33 -19 43 16 126 53 17 -19 49 15 0.24
127 13 56 -20 8 29 11 9 5.3 74 52 -29 127 20 10 -20 7 30 127 7 41 -20 9 27 127 33 6 -20 5 28 126 54 44 -20 11 29 0.24
127 15 25 -20 30 43 11 9 11.5 73 50 -29 127 21 40 -20 29 44 127 9 9 -20 31 42 127 34 37 -20 27 42 126 56 10 -20 33 43 0.24
127 16 52 -20 52 59 11 9 17.6 73 49 -29 127 23 8 -20 52 0 127 10 36 -20 53 58 127 36 7 -20 49 57 126 57 35 -20 56 0 0.24
127 18 18 -21 15 16 11 9 23.8 73 48 -29 127 24 36 -21 14 17 127 12 1 -21 16 15 127 37 37 -21 12 14 126 58 58 -21 18 17 0.24
127 19 43 -21 37 36 11 9 29.9 73 47 -29 127 26 2 -21 36 36 127 13 25 -21 38 35 127 39 5 -21 34 33 127 0 20 -21 40 37 0.24
127 21 7 -21 59 57 11 9 36.1 73 46 -29 127 27 26 -21 58 57 127 14 48 -22 0 56 127 40 31 -21 56 54 127 1 41 -22 2 58 0.24
127 22 30 -22 22 19 11 9 42.2 72 45 -30 127 28 50 -22 21 20 127 16 9 -22 23 19 127 41 57 -22 19 16 127 3 0 -22 25 21 0.24
127 23 51 -22 44 44 11 9 48.4 72 44 -30 127 30 12 -22 43 44 127 17 30 -22 45 44 127 43 21 -22 41 40 127 4 18 -22 47 47 0.24
127 25 11 -23 7 11 11 9 54.5 72 44 -30 127 31 33 -23 6 11 127 18 49 -23 8 10 127 44 45 -23 4 7 127 5 35 -23 10 14 0.24
127 26 30 -23 29 39 11 10 0.7 72 43 -30 127 32 53 -23 28 39 127 20 6 -23 30 39 127 46 7 -23 26 35 127 6 51 -23 32 43 0.24
127 27 48 -23 52 10 11 10 6.8 71 42 -30 127 34 12 -23 51 10 127 21 23 -23 53 10 127 47 28 -23 49 5 127 8 5 -23 55 14 0.24
127 29 4 -24 14 43 11 10 13.0 71 41 -30 127 35 30 -24 13 43 127 22 38 -24 15 43 127 48 48 -24 11 37 127 9 18 -24 17 47 0.24
127 30 19 -24 37 18 11 10 19.1 71 40 -30 127 36 46 -24 36 17 127 23 52 -24 38 18 127 50 7 -24 34 12 127 10 30 -24 40 23 0.24
127 31 34 -24 59 55 11 10 25.3 71 39 -30 127 38 2 -24 58 55 127 25 5 -25 0 56 127 51 24 -24 56 49 127 11 40 -25 3 1 0.24
127 32 46 -25 22 35 11 10 31.4 70 39 -31 127 39 16 -25 21 34 127 26 17 -25 23 36 127 52 41 -25 19 28 127 12 49 -25 25 41 0.24
127 33 58 -25 45 17 11 10 37.6 70 38 -31 127 40 29 -25 44 16 127 27 28 -25 46 18 127 53 57 -25 42 10 127 13 57 -25 48 23 0.24
127 35 9 -26 8 2 11 10 43.7 70 37 -31 127 41 40 -26 7 1 127 28 37 -26 9 3 127 55 11 -26 4 54 127 15 4 -26 11 9 0.24
127 36 18 -26 30 49 11 10 49.9 69 36 -31 127 42 51 -26 29 48 127 29 45 -26 31 50 127 56 24 -26 27 41 127 16 9 -26 33 56 0.24
127 37 26 -26 53 39 11 10 56.0 69 36 -31 127 44 0 -26 52 38 127 30 52 -26 54 40 127 57 37 -26 50 30 127 17 13 -26 56 47 0.23
127 38 33 -27 16 32 11 11 2.2 69 35 -31 127 45 9 -27 15 30 127 31 57 -27 17 33 127 58 48 -27 13 22 127 18 16 -27 19 40 0.23
127 39 39 -27 39 27 11 11 8.3 69 34 -31 127 46 16 -27 38 25 127 33 2 -27 40 29 127 59 58 -27 36 17 127 19 18 -27 42 36 0.23
127 40 44 -28 2 26 11 11 14.5 68 34 -31 127 47 22 -28 1 24 127 34 5 -28 3 27 128 1 7 -27 59 15 127 20 18 -28 5 35 0.23
127 41 47 -28 25 27 11 11 20.6 68 33 -32 127 48 27 -28 24 25 127 35 7 -28 26 29 128 2 14 -28 22 16 127 21 17 -28 28 37 0.23
127 42 49 -28 48 31 11 11 26.8 68 32 -32 127 49 31 -28 47 29 127 36 8 -28 49 34 128 3 21 -28 45 20 127 22 14 -28 51 42 0.23
127 43 50 -29 11 39 11 11 32.9 67 32 -32 127 50 33 -29 10 36 127 37 7 -29 12 41 128 4 27 -29 8 27 127 23 11 -29 14 50 0.23
127 44 50 -29 34 50 11 11 39.1 67 31 -32 127 51 34 -29 33 47 127 38 5 -29 35 52 128 5 31 -29 31 37 127 24 6 -29 38 1 0.23
127 45 49 -29 58 4 11 11 45.3 67 31 -32 127 52 35 -29 57 1 127 39 2 -29 59 6 128 6 35 -29 54 50 127 25 0 -30 1 16 0.23
127 46 46 -30 21 21 11 11 51.4 66 30 -32 127 53 34 -30 20 18 127 39 58 -30 22 24 128 7 37 -30 18 7 127 25 52 -30 24 34 0.23
127 47 42 -30 44 42 11 11 57.6 66 30 -32 127 54 32 -30 43 39 127 40 53 -30 45 45 128 8 39 -30 41 27 127 26 43 -30 47 56 0.23
127 48 37 -31 8 7 11 12 3.7 66 29 -32 127 55 28 -31 7 3 127 41 46 -31 9 10 128 9 39 -31 4 51 127 27 33 -31 11 21 0.23
127 49 31 -31 31 35 11 12 9.9 66 29 -32 127 56 24 -31 30 31 127 42 38 -31 32 39 128 10 38 -31 28 19 127 28 21 -31 34 50 0.23
127 50 24 -31 55 7 11 12 16.0 65 28 -32 127 57 18 -31 54 3 127 43 29 -31 56 11 128 11 36 -31 51 50 127 29 8 -31 58 23 0.23
127 51 15 -32 18 43 11 12 22.2 65 28 -33 127 58 11 -32 17 39 127 44 18 -32 19 47 128 12 33 -32 15 25 127 29 54 -32 21 59 0.23
127 52 5 -32 42 23 11 12 28.3 65 27 -33 127 59 3 -32 41 18 127 45 6 -32 43 27 128 13 28 -32 39 5 127 30 38 -32 45 40 0.23
127 52 54 -33 6 7 11 12 34.5 64 27 -33 127 59 54 -33 5 2 127 45 53 -33 7 11 128 14 23 -33 2 48 127 31 21 -33 9 24 0.23
127 53 41 -33 29 55 11 12 40.6 64 26 -33 128 0 43 -33 28 50 127 46 39 -33 30 59 128 15 16 -33 26 35 127 32 3 -33 33 13 0.23
127 54 27 -33 53 47 11 12 46.8 63 26 -33 128 1 31 -33 52 42 127 47 23 -33 54 52 128 16 8 -33 50 27 127 32 43 -33 57 6 0.23
127 55 12 -34 17 44 11 12 52.9 63 25 -33 128 2 18 -34 16 39 127 48 6 -34 18 49 128 16 59 -34 14 23 127 33 21 -34 21 4 0.23
127 55 56 -34 41 45 11 12 59.1 63 25 -33 128 3 4 -34 40 40 127 48 47 -34 42 51 128 17 49 -34 38 23 127 33 58 -34 45 6 0.23
127 56 38 -35 5 51 11 13 5.2 62 25 -33 128 3 48 -35 4 45 127 49 27 -35 6 57 128 18 38 -35 2 28 127 34 34 -35 9 13 0.23
127 57 19 -35 30 2 11 13 11.4 62 24 -33 128 4 31 -35 28 56 127 50 6 -35 31 8 128 19 26 -35 26 38 127 35 8 -35 33 24 0.23
127 57 58 -35 54 17 11 13 17.5 62 24 -33 128 5 13 -35 53 11 127 50 43 -35 55 23 128 20 12 -35 50 53 127 35 41 -35 57 40 0.23
127 58 36 -36 18 38 11 13 23.7 61 23 -33 128 5 53 -36 17 31 127 51 19 -36 19 44 128 20 57 -36 15 12 127 36 12 -36 22 2 0.23
127 59 13 -36 43 3 11 13 29.8 61 23 -33 128 6 32 -36 41 56 127 51 53 -36 44 10 128 21 41 -36 39 37 127 36 41 -36 46 28 0.23
127 59 48 -37 7 34 11 13 36.0 61 23 -33 128 7 9 -37 6 27 127 52 26 -37 8 41 128 22 23 -37 4 7 127 37 9 -37 11 0 0.23
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