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Updated: 2021 MAY 29, 00:25 UT
Event Rank : 72
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jul 21 UT, the 18.0465392071919 km diameter asteroid (3497) Innanen will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a very narrow path across south-eastern Australia from Byron Bay across New South Wales to Mildura in north-western Victoria then across south-eastern South Australia to Meningie.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.31 mag to 15.91 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.8 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5205-01211-1 by 3497 Innanen on 2021 Jul 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
171 15 46 -22 15 43 19 8 58.4 11 268 -2 171 37 54 -22 18 0 170 54 18 -22 13 20 172 15 20 -22 21 33 170 20 51 -22 9 22 1.11
170 16 33 -22 31 14 19 9 1.5 12 268 -2 170 37 5 -22 33 43 169 56 34 -22 28 41 171 11 34 -22 37 36 169 25 16 -22 24 27 1.12
169 21 31 -22 46 17 19 9 4.7 13 268 -3 169 40 46 -22 48 55 169 2 43 -22 43 36 170 12 58 -22 53 4 168 33 9 -22 39 10 1.12
168 29 51 -23 0 57 19 9 7.8 14 269 -4 168 48 4 -23 3 43 168 12 1 -22 58 9 169 18 25 -23 8 5 167 43 55 -22 53 33 1.13
167 40 59 -23 15 19 19 9 11.0 14 269 -5 167 58 20 -23 18 11 167 23 59 -23 12 25 168 27 9 -23 22 44 166 57 6 -23 7 39 1.13
166 54 31 -23 29 25 19 9 14.1 15 270 -6 167 11 7 -23 32 22 166 38 12 -23 26 26 167 38 39 -23 37 5 166 12 23 -23 21 32 1.13
166 10 5 -23 43 17 19 9 17.3 16 270 -6 166 26 3 -23 46 19 165 54 23 -23 40 14 166 52 28 -23 51 10 165 29 30 -23 35 13 1.13
165 27 28 -23 56 58 19 9 20.4 16 270 -7 165 42 52 -24 0 4 165 12 18 -23 53 50 166 8 19 -24 5 2 164 48 13 -23 48 43 1.14
164 46 25 -24 10 28 19 9 23.6 17 271 -8 165 1 20 -24 13 38 164 31 43 -24 7 16 165 25 56 -24 18 43 164 8 22 -24 2 4 1.14
164 6 47 -24 23 48 19 9 26.7 18 271 -8 164 21 15 -24 27 2 163 52 30 -24 20 34 164 45 6 -24 32 12 163 29 48 -24 15 16 1.14
163 28 25 -24 37 1 19 9 29.9 18 271 -9 163 42 29 -24 40 17 163 14 31 -24 33 43 164 5 40 -24 45 33 162 52 24 -24 28 21 1.14
162 51 12 -24 50 5 19 9 33.0 19 272 -10 163 4 55 -24 53 25 162 37 39 -24 46 45 163 27 29 -24 58 46 162 16 3 -24 41 18 1.14
162 15 1 -25 3 3 19 9 36.2 19 272 -10 162 28 25 -25 6 25 162 1 47 -24 59 40 162 50 26 -25 11 51 161 40 40 -24 54 9 1.14
161 39 48 -25 15 55 19 9 39.3 20 272 -11 161 52 53 -25 19 20 161 26 51 -25 12 29 162 14 25 -25 24 49 161 6 11 -25 6 55 1.14
161 5 27 -25 28 41 19 9 42.5 20 273 -11 161 18 16 -25 32 8 160 52 46 -25 25 13 161 39 20 -25 37 41 160 32 30 -25 19 35 1.14
160 31 54 -25 41 22 19 9 45.6 21 273 -12 160 44 29 -25 44 51 160 19 28 -25 37 52 161 5 7 -25 50 28 159 59 35 -25 32 11 1.14
159 59 7 -25 53 58 19 9 48.8 21 273 -12 160 11 28 -25 57 29 159 46 54 -25 50 26 160 31 43 -26 3 10 159 27 23 -25 44 42 1.14
159 27 2 -26 6 30 19 9 51.9 22 274 -13 159 39 9 -26 10 3 159 15 1 -26 2 56 159 59 3 -26 15 47 158 55 49 -25 57 9 1.14
158 55 35 -26 18 58 19 9 55.1 22 274 -13 159 7 31 -26 22 33 158 43 46 -26 15 22 159 27 4 -26 28 19 158 24 53 -26 9 32 1.14
158 24 45 -26 31 21 19 9 58.2 22 274 -14 158 36 29 -26 34 58 158 13 7 -26 27 44 158 55 44 -26 40 48 157 54 30 -26 21 51 1.14
157 54 29 -26 43 42 19 10 1.3 23 274 -14 158 6 3 -26 47 20 157 43 1 -26 40 3 158 25 0 -26 53 13 157 24 40 -26 34 7 1.14
157 24 45 -26 55 59 19 10 4.5 23 275 -15 157 36 9 -26 59 39 157 13 27 -26 52 18 157 54 49 -27 5 34 156 55 21 -26 46 20 1.14
156 55 31 -27 8 13 19 10 7.6 24 275 -15 157 6 46 -27 11 54 156 44 22 -27 4 31 157 25 11 -27 17 52 156 26 30 -26 58 30 1.15
156 26 46 -27 20 24 19 10 10.8 24 275 -16 156 37 52 -27 24 7 156 15 45 -27 16 40 156 56 3 -27 30 7 155 58 7 -27 10 38 1.15
155 58 27 -27 32 32 19 10 13.9 24 276 -16 156 9 25 -27 36 17 155 47 35 -27 28 47 156 27 22 -27 42 19 155 30 9 -27 22 42 1.15
155 30 34 -27 44 38 19 10 17.1 25 276 -16 155 41 25 -27 48 24 155 19 49 -27 40 52 155 59 9 -27 54 29 155 2 36 -27 34 45 1.15
155 3 6 -27 56 42 19 10 20.2 25 276 -17 155 13 49 -28 0 29 154 52 28 -27 52 54 155 31 21 -28 6 36 154 35 25 -27 46 45 1.15
154 36 0 -28 8 43 19 10 23.4 26 277 -17 154 46 36 -28 12 32 154 25 29 -28 4 54 155 3 56 -28 18 41 154 8 37 -27 58 43 1.15
154 9 16 -28 20 42 19 10 26.5 26 277 -18 154 19 46 -28 24 32 153 58 51 -28 16 52 154 36 55 -28 30 43 153 42 10 -28 10 39 1.15
153 42 53 -28 32 40 19 10 29.7 26 277 -18 153 53 16 -28 36 31 153 32 34 -28 28 48 154 10 15 -28 42 44 153 16 2 -28 22 33 1.15
153 16 50 -28 44 35 19 10 32.8 27 278 -19 153 27 7 -28 48 28 153 6 37 -28 40 43 153 43 56 -28 54 43 152 50 14 -28 34 26 1.15
152 51 5 -28 56 29 19 10 36.0 27 278 -19 153 1 17 -29 0 22 152 40 58 -28 52 35 153 17 56 -29 6 40 152 24 44 -28 46 16 1.15
152 25 39 -29 8 21 19 10 39.1 27 278 -19 152 35 45 -29 12 16 152 15 37 -29 4 26 152 52 16 -29 18 35 151 59 31 -28 58 6 1.15
152 0 30 -29 20 12 19 10 42.3 28 279 -20 152 10 31 -29 24 8 151 50 33 -29 16 16 152 26 53 -29 30 28 151 34 35 -29 9 53 1.15
151 35 37 -29 32 1 19 10 45.4 28 279 -20 151 45 33 -29 35 58 151 25 45 -29 28 4 152 1 48 -29 42 21 151 9 55 -29 21 40 1.15
151 11 1 -29 43 49 19 10 48.6 28 279 -21 151 20 52 -29 47 47 151 1 13 -29 39 51 151 36 58 -29 54 11 150 45 30 -29 33 25 1.15
150 46 39 -29 55 36 19 10 51.7 29 280 -21 150 56 26 -29 59 35 150 36 56 -29 51 36 151 12 25 -30 6 1 150 21 20 -29 45 9 1.15
150 22 32 -30 7 21 19 10 54.9 29 280 -21 150 32 15 -30 11 21 150 12 53 -30 3 21 150 48 7 -30 17 49 149 57 24 -29 56 52 1.15
149 58 39 -30 19 5 19 10 58.0 29 280 -22 150 8 18 -30 23 6 149 49 4 -30 15 4 150 24 3 -30 29 36 149 33 42 -30 8 33 1.15
149 35 0 -30 30 49 19 11 1.1 29 281 -22 149 44 35 -30 34 51 149 25 29 -30 26 46 150 0 13 -30 41 22 149 10 12 -30 20 14 1.15
149 11 33 -30 42 31 19 11 4.3 30 281 -22 149 21 4 -30 46 34 149 2 6 -30 38 28 149 36 36 -30 53 7 148 46 56 -30 31 54 1.15
148 48 19 -30 54 12 19 11 7.4 30 281 -23 148 57 47 -30 58 16 148 38 56 -30 50 8 149 13 13 -31 4 51 148 23 51 -30 43 33 1.15
148 25 17 -31 5 53 19 11 10.6 30 282 -23 148 34 41 -31 9 58 148 15 57 -31 1 48 148 50 1 -31 16 34 148 0 57 -30 55 11 1.15
148 2 27 -31 17 33 19 11 13.7 31 282 -23 148 11 47 -31 21 39 147 53 10 -31 13 27 148 27 2 -31 28 16 147 38 15 -31 6 48 1.15
147 39 47 -31 29 12 19 11 16.9 31 282 -24 147 49 4 -31 33 19 147 30 33 -31 25 5 148 4 14 -31 39 58 147 15 44 -31 18 25 1.15
147 17 18 -31 40 50 19 11 20.0 31 283 -24 147 26 33 -31 44 58 147 8 8 -31 36 42 147 41 37 -31 51 39 146 53 23 -31 30 0 1.15
146 55 0 -31 52 28 19 11 23.2 31 283 -24 147 4 11 -31 56 36 146 45 52 -31 48 19 147 19 11 -32 3 19 146 31 12 -31 41 36 1.15
146 32 51 -32 4 5 19 11 26.3 32 283 -25 146 42 0 -32 8 15 146 23 46 -31 59 55 146 56 55 -32 14 58 146 9 11 -31 53 11 1.15
146 10 53 -32 15 42 19 11 29.5 32 284 -25 146 19 58 -32 19 52 146 1 50 -32 11 31 146 34 48 -32 26 37 145 47 19 -32 4 45 1.15
145 49 3 -32 27 18 19 11 32.6 32 284 -25 145 58 6 -32 31 29 145 40 3 -32 23 6 146 12 52 -32 38 16 145 25 36 -32 16 19 1.15
145 27 22 -32 38 53 19 11 35.8 32 284 -26 145 36 23 -32 43 6 145 18 25 -32 34 41 145 51 4 -32 49 54 145 4 2 -32 27 52 1.15
145 5 50 -32 50 29 19 11 38.9 33 285 -26 145 14 48 -32 54 42 144 56 56 -32 46 15 145 29 26 -33 1 31 144 42 37 -32 39 25 1.15
144 44 27 -33 2 3 19 11 42.1 33 285 -26 144 53 22 -33 6 18 144 35 34 -32 57 49 145 7 56 -33 13 9 144 21 19 -32 50 57 1.15
144 23 11 -33 13 38 19 11 45.2 33 285 -27 144 32 4 -33 17 53 144 14 21 -33 9 23 144 46 34 -33 24 46 144 0 9 -33 2 30 1.15
144 2 3 -33 25 12 19 11 48.4 33 286 -27 144 10 54 -33 29 28 143 53 15 -33 20 56 144 25 21 -33 36 22 143 39 7 -33 14 2 1.15
143 41 3 -33 36 46 19 11 51.5 33 286 -27 143 49 52 -33 41 3 143 32 17 -33 32 30 144 4 15 -33 47 59 143 18 12 -33 25 34 1.15
143 20 10 -33 48 20 19 11 54.6 34 287 -28 143 28 57 -33 52 38 143 11 26 -33 44 3 143 43 16 -33 59 35 142 57 24 -33 37 5 1.15
142 59 24 -33 59 54 19 11 57.8 34 287 -28 143 8 9 -34 4 12 142 50 42 -33 55 35 143 22 25 -34 11 11 142 36 43 -33 48 37 1.15
142 38 45 -34 11 27 19 12 0.9 34 287 -28 142 47 28 -34 15 47 142 30 5 -34 7 8 143 1 41 -34 22 47 142 16 9 -34 0 8 1.15
142 18 12 -34 23 1 19 12 4.1 34 288 -28 142 26 54 -34 27 21 142 9 34 -34 18 41 142 41 4 -34 34 22 141 55 41 -34 11 39 1.15
141 57 46 -34 34 34 19 12 7.2 34 288 -29 142 6 26 -34 38 55 141 49 10 -34 30 13 142 20 33 -34 45 58 141 35 20 -34 23 10 1.16
141 37 26 -34 46 8 19 12 10.4 35 288 -29 141 46 4 -34 50 30 141 28 51 -34 41 46 142 0 8 -34 57 34 141 15 4 -34 34 41 1.16
141 17 12 -34 57 41 19 12 13.5 35 289 -29 141 25 48 -35 2 4 141 8 39 -34 53 18 141 39 50 -35 9 9 140 54 54 -34 46 12 1.16
140 57 3 -35 9 14 19 12 16.7 35 289 -30 141 5 38 -35 13 38 140 48 32 -35 4 51 141 19 37 -35 20 45 140 34 50 -34 57 43 1.16
140 37 1 -35 20 48 19 12 19.8 35 289 -30 140 45 34 -35 25 12 140 28 30 -35 16 23 140 59 30 -35 32 21 140 14 51 -35 9 15 1.16
140 17 3 -35 32 21 19 12 23.0 35 290 -30 140 25 35 -35 36 47 140 8 34 -35 27 56 140 39 29 -35 43 56 139 54 57 -35 20 46 1.16
139 57 11 -35 43 55 19 12 26.1 36 290 -30 140 5 41 -35 48 21 139 48 44 -35 39 28 140 19 33 -35 55 32 139 35 8 -35 32 17 1.16
139 37 23 -35 55 29 19 12 29.3 36 291 -31 139 45 52 -35 59 56 139 28 58 -35 51 1 139 59 42 -36 7 8 139 15 25 -35 43 49 1.16
139 17 41 -36 7 2 19 12 32.4 36 291 -31 139 26 8 -36 11 31 139 9 16 -36 2 34 139 39 56 -36 18 44 138 55 45 -35 55 20 1.16
138 58 3 -36 18 37 19 12 35.6 36 291 -31 139 6 29 -36 23 6 138 49 40 -36 14 8 139 20 14 -36 30 21 138 36 11 -36 6 52 1.16
138 38 30 -36 30 11 19 12 38.7 36 292 -31 138 46 55 -36 34 41 138 30 8 -36 25 41 139 0 38 -36 41 57 138 16 41 -36 18 24 1.16
138 19 1 -36 41 46 19 12 41.9 36 292 -32 138 27 24 -36 46 16 138 10 40 -36 37 15 138 41 6 -36 53 34 137 57 15 -36 29 57 1.16
137 59 36 -36 53 20 19 12 45.0 37 293 -32 138 7 58 -36 57 52 137 51 16 -36 48 49 138 21 38 -37 5 11 137 37 53 -36 41 29 1.16
137 40 15 -37 4 56 19 12 48.2 37 293 -32 137 48 37 -37 9 28 137 31 56 -37 0 23 138 2 14 -37 16 49 137 18 35 -36 53 2 1.16
137 20 58 -37 16 31 19 12 51.3 37 293 -32 137 29 19 -37 21 4 137 12 41 -37 11 58 137 42 54 -37 28 27 136 59 21 -37 4 36 1.16
137 1 45 -37 28 7 19 12 54.4 37 294 -33 137 10 4 -37 32 41 136 53 28 -37 23 33 137 23 39 -37 40 5 136 40 10 -37 16 9 1.16
136 42 36 -37 39 43 19 12 57.6 37 294 -33 136 50 54 -37 44 18 136 34 20 -37 35 8 137 4 26 -37 51 44 136 21 3 -37 27 43 1.16
136 23 29 -37 51 20 19 13 0.7 37 294 -33 136 31 47 -37 55 56 136 15 15 -37 46 44 136 45 18 -38 3 22 136 2 0 -37 39 18 1.16
136 4 27 -38 2 57 19 13 3.9 37 295 -33 136 12 43 -38 7 34 135 56 13 -37 58 20 136 26 13 -38 15 2 135 42 59 -37 50 52 1.16
135 45 27 -38 14 35 19 13 7.0 38 295 -34 135 53 43 -38 19 12 135 37 14 -38 9 57 136 7 11 -38 26 42 135 24 2 -38 2 28 1.16
135 26 31 -38 26 13 19 13 10.2 38 296 -34 135 34 45 -38 30 51 135 18 18 -38 21 34 135 48 12 -38 38 22 135 5 7 -38 14 3 1.16
135 7 37 -38 37 51 19 13 13.3 38 296 -34 135 15 51 -38 42 31 134 59 26 -38 33 12 135 29 16 -38 50 3 134 46 16 -38 25 40 1.16
134 48 46 -38 49 30 19 13 16.5 38 296 -34 134 56 59 -38 54 11 134 40 36 -38 44 50 135 10 23 -39 1 44 134 27 27 -38 37 16 1.16
134 29 58 -39 1 10 19 13 19.6 38 297 -35 134 38 11 -39 5 51 134 21 48 -38 56 29 134 51 33 -39 13 26 134 8 41 -38 48 54 1.16
134 11 12 -39 12 50 19 13 22.8 38 297 -35 134 19 24 -39 17 32 134 3 3 -39 8 8 134 32 46 -39 25 9 133 49 57 -39 0 31 1.16
133 52 29 -39 24 31 19 13 25.9 38 298 -35 134 0 40 -39 29 14 133 44 21 -39 19 48 134 14 1 -39 36 52 133 31 16 -39 12 10 1.16
133 33 49 -39 36 12 19 13 29.1 38 298 -35 133 41 59 -39 40 56 133 25 41 -39 31 28 133 55 19 -39 48 36 133 12 37 -39 23 49 1.16
133 15 10 -39 47 54 19 13 32.2 38 299 -36 133 23 20 -39 52 39 133 7 3 -39 43 9 133 36 38 -40 0 20 132 54 0 -39 35 28 1.16
132 56 34 -39 59 37 19 13 35.4 39 299 -36 133 4 43 -40 4 23 132 48 27 -39 54 51 133 18 0 -40 12 6 132 35 25 -39 47 9 1.16
132 37 59 -40 11 20 19 13 38.5 39 299 -36 132 46 8 -40 16 7 132 29 53 -40 6 34 132 59 24 -40 23 51 132 16 52 -39 58 50 1.16
132 19 26 -40 23 4 19 13 41.7 39 300 -36 132 27 34 -40 27 52 132 11 21 -40 18 17 132 40 50 -40 35 38 131 58 21 -40 10 31 1.16
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2021 May 29.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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