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Updated: 2021 Jul 15, 17:42 UT
Event Rank : 54
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Aug 21 UT, the 26 km diameter asteroid (2612) Kathryn will occult a 9.2 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across New Zealand, running from Coromandel to Dunedin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.17 mag to 16.37 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.4 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5276-01234-1 by 2612 Kathryn on 2021 Aug 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
176 34 1 -35 0 37 14 10 30.0 61 46 -55 176 43 3 -35 2 11 176 24 59 -34 59 2 177 4 6 -35 5 49 176 3 54 -34 55 21 -0.24
176 23 33 -35 23 50 14 10 33.6 61 46 -55 176 32 37 -35 25 25 176 14 29 -35 22 15 176 53 47 -35 29 4 175 53 18 -35 18 33 -0.24
176 12 55 -35 47 7 14 10 37.3 60 46 -55 176 22 2 -35 48 42 176 3 48 -35 45 31 176 43 17 -35 52 23 175 42 30 -35 41 47 -0.24
176 2 5 -36 10 26 14 10 41.0 60 46 -55 176 11 15 -36 12 2 175 52 56 -36 8 50 176 32 37 -36 15 44 175 31 32 -36 5 5 -0.24
175 51 4 -36 33 50 14 10 44.7 60 45 -55 176 0 17 -36 35 26 175 41 52 -36 32 13 176 21 45 -36 39 10 175 20 22 -36 28 26 -0.24
175 39 52 -36 57 17 14 10 48.3 59 45 -55 175 49 7 -36 58 54 175 30 37 -36 55 39 176 10 42 -37 2 39 175 9 0 -36 51 51 -0.24
175 28 28 -37 20 47 14 10 52.0 59 45 -55 175 37 46 -37 22 24 175 19 10 -37 19 9 175 59 27 -37 26 11 174 57 26 -37 15 19 -0.24
175 16 51 -37 44 21 14 10 55.7 59 45 -55 175 26 12 -37 45 59 175 7 30 -37 42 42 175 48 0 -37 49 47 174 45 40 -37 38 51 -0.24
175 5 1 -38 7 58 14 10 59.3 58 45 -54 175 14 25 -38 9 37 174 55 37 -38 6 19 175 36 21 -38 13 27 174 33 40 -38 2 26 -0.24
174 52 59 -38 31 40 14 11 3.0 58 44 -54 175 2 26 -38 33 19 174 43 31 -38 30 0 175 24 28 -38 37 11 174 21 27 -38 26 6 -0.24
174 40 42 -38 55 25 14 11 6.7 57 44 -54 174 50 12 -38 57 5 174 31 12 -38 53 45 175 12 22 -39 0 58 174 9 1 -38 49 48 -0.24
174 28 12 -39 19 14 14 11 10.4 57 44 -54 174 37 45 -39 20 55 174 18 38 -39 17 33 175 0 3 -39 24 50 173 56 20 -39 13 35 -0.24
174 15 27 -39 43 8 14 11 14.0 57 44 -54 174 25 3 -39 44 49 174 5 50 -39 41 26 174 47 29 -39 48 46 173 43 24 -39 37 26 -0.24
174 2 27 -40 7 5 14 11 17.7 56 44 -54 174 12 7 -40 8 48 173 52 47 -40 5 22 174 34 40 -40 12 46 173 30 13 -40 1 21 -0.24
173 49 11 -40 31 7 14 11 21.4 56 44 -53 173 58 55 -40 32 50 173 39 28 -40 29 23 174 21 36 -40 36 50 173 16 46 -40 25 20 -0.24
173 35 40 -40 55 12 14 11 25.0 56 44 -53 173 45 27 -40 56 57 173 25 53 -40 53 28 174 8 16 -41 0 58 173 3 2 -40 49 23 -0.24
173 21 52 -41 19 23 14 11 28.7 55 44 -53 173 31 42 -41 21 8 173 12 1 -41 17 37 173 54 40 -41 25 11 172 49 2 -41 13 30 -0.24
173 7 46 -41 43 37 14 11 32.4 55 43 -53 173 17 40 -41 45 23 172 57 52 -41 41 51 173 40 47 -41 49 29 172 34 45 -41 37 42 -0.24
172 53 23 -42 7 57 14 11 36.0 54 43 -53 173 3 21 -42 9 43 172 43 25 -42 6 10 173 26 36 -42 13 51 172 20 9 -42 1 59 -0.24
172 38 41 -42 32 21 14 11 39.7 54 43 -53 172 48 43 -42 34 8 172 28 40 -42 30 33 173 12 7 -42 38 18 172 5 15 -42 26 20 -0.24
172 23 41 -42 56 49 14 11 43.4 53 43 -52 172 33 46 -42 58 38 172 13 35 -42 55 1 172 57 19 -43 2 50 171 50 1 -42 50 45 -0.24
172 8 20 -43 21 23 14 11 47.1 53 43 -52 172 18 30 -43 23 12 171 58 10 -43 19 33 172 42 12 -43 27 26 171 34 26 -43 15 16 -0.24
171 52 39 -43 46 1 14 11 50.7 53 43 -52 172 2 52 -43 47 52 171 42 25 -43 44 11 172 26 45 -43 52 8 171 18 31 -43 39 51 -0.24
171 36 36 -44 10 45 14 11 54.4 52 43 -52 171 46 54 -44 12 36 171 26 18 -44 8 53 172 10 56 -44 16 55 171 2 15 -44 4 31 -0.24
171 20 11 -44 35 33 14 11 58.1 52 43 -52 171 30 33 -44 37 26 171 9 48 -44 33 41 171 54 46 -44 41 47 170 45 35 -44 29 16 -0.24
171 3 23 -45 0 27 14 12 1.7 51 43 -51 171 13 50 -45 2 21 170 52 56 -44 58 33 171 38 12 -45 6 44 170 28 32 -44 54 6 -0.24
170 46 11 -45 25 26 14 12 5.4 51 43 -51 170 56 42 -45 27 21 170 35 39 -45 23 31 171 21 15 -45 31 47 170 11 5 -45 19 2 -0.24
170 28 33 -45 50 31 14 12 9.1 50 43 -51 170 39 9 -45 52 27 170 17 57 -45 48 35 171 3 54 -45 56 55 169 53 12 -45 44 2 -0.24
170 10 30 -46 15 41 14 12 12.7 50 43 -51 170 21 11 -46 17 38 169 59 49 -46 13 44 170 46 6 -46 22 9 169 34 53 -46 9 8 -0.24
169 52 0 -46 40 57 14 12 16.4 50 43 -51 170 2 45 -46 42 55 169 41 14 -46 38 58 170 27 52 -46 47 29 169 16 6 -46 34 20 -0.24
169 33 1 -47 6 18 14 12 20.1 49 43 -50 169 43 52 -47 8 17 169 22 10 -47 4 18 170 9 10 -47 12 54 168 56 50 -46 59 37 -0.24
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