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Updated: 2021 NOV 30, 03:12 UT
Event Rank : 88
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Jan 16 UT, the 184 km diameter asteroid (624) Hektor will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Triangulum for observers along a fairly broad path across Australia, from Kununurra across The Northern Territory (north-west to south-east) and into north-western New South Wales at decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.94 mag to 15.08 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 23.640 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 620-006779 by 624 Hektor #1 on 2022 Jan 16
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
148 53 26 -36 0 0 12 42 51.8 1 314 -29 147 26 0 ... .. .. 146 19 47 ... .. .. ....
147 38 51 -35 0 0 12 42 51.4 2 315 -30 146 13 42 149 5 25 145 9 9 150 13 0 -0.13
146 27 15 -34 0 0 12 42 50.5 3 315 -30 145 4 12 147 51 35 144 1 10 148 57 22 -0.11
145 18 21 -33 0 0 12 42 49.1 5 316 -31 143 57 14 146 40 39 142 55 37 147 44 46 -0.10
144 11 57 -32 0 0 12 42 47.3 6 317 -31 142 52 36 145 32 22 141 52 18 146 34 59 -0.10
143 7 51 -31 0 0 12 42 45.0 7 317 -31 141 50 9 144 26 32 140 51 4 145 27 45 -0.09
142 5 53 -30 0 0 12 42 42.3 9 318 -32 140 49 42 143 22 58 139 51 44 144 22 53 -0.09
141 5 52 -29 0 0 12 42 39.2 10 318 -32 139 51 7 142 21 28 138 54 12 143 20 12 -0.09
140 7 41 -28 0 0 12 42 35.7 11 319 -32 138 54 15 141 21 54 137 58 18 142 19 31 -0.09
139 11 12 -27 0 0 12 42 31.8 13 319 -33 137 58 59 140 24 8 137 3 57 141 20 43 -0.09
138 16 17 -26 0 0 12 42 27.5 14 320 -33 137 5 13 139 28 1 136 11 2 140 23 39 -0.09
137 22 50 -25 0 0 12 42 22.9 15 320 -33 136 12 51 138 33 28 135 19 27 139 28 12 -0.09
136 30 46 -24 0 0 12 42 17.8 17 320 -34 135 21 47 137 40 21 134 29 7 138 34 16 -0.09
135 39 59 -23 0 0 12 42 12.4 18 321 -34 134 31 55 136 48 35 133 39 57 137 41 43 -0.09
134 50 23 -22 0 0 12 42 6.7 19 321 -34 133 43 11 135 58 5 132 51 52 136 50 30 -0.09
134 1 54 -21 0 0 12 42 0.6 20 321 -34 132 55 31 135 8 45 132 4 48 136 0 29 -0.09
133 14 27 -20 0 0 12 41 54.2 22 322 -34 132 8 50 134 20 31 131 18 42 135 11 38 -0.09
132 28 0 -19 0 0 12 41 47.4 23 322 -35 131 23 5 133 33 19 130 33 28 134 23 51 -0.09
131 42 27 -18 0 0 12 41 40.3 24 322 -35 130 38 12 132 47 5 129 49 4 133 37 3 -0.09
130 57 45 -17 0 0 12 41 32.8 25 322 -35 129 54 7 132 1 45 129 5 27 132 51 12 -0.09
130 13 51 -16 0 0 12 41 25.1 27 322 -35 129 10 48 131 17 15 128 22 33 132 6 14 -0.09
129 30 42 -15 0 0 12 41 17.0 28 323 -35 128 28 11 130 33 32 127 40 20 131 22 5 -0.09
128 48 14 -14 0 0 12 41 8.7 29 323 -35 127 46 13 129 50 34 126 58 44 130 38 42 -0.09
128 6 25 -13 0 0 12 41 0.0 30 323 -35 127 4 52 129 8 16 126 17 43 129 56 1 -0.09
127 25 13 -12 0 0 12 40 51.0 32 323 -35 126 24 4 128 26 37 125 37 15 129 14 1 -0.09
126 44 34 -11 0 0 12 40 41.7 33 323 -35 125 43 49 127 45 34 124 57 16 128 32 38 -0.09
126 4 26 -10 0 0 12 40 32.2 34 323 -35 125 4 2 127 5 3 124 17 46 127 51 49 -0.09
125 24 46 - 9 0 0 12 40 22.3 35 323 -35 124 24 42 126 25 3 123 38 40 127 11 33 -0.09
124 45 33 - 8 0 0 12 40 12.2 36 324 -35 123 45 47 125 45 32 122 59 57 126 31 47 -0.09
124 6 44 - 7 0 0 12 40 1.8 38 324 -35 123 7 14 125 6 26 122 21 36 125 52 27 -0.09
123 28 17 - 6 0 0 12 39 51.2 39 324 -35 122 29 1 124 27 44 121 43 34 125 13 33 -0.08
122 50 10 - 5 0 0 12 39 40.2 40 324 -35 121 51 6 123 49 24 121 5 48 124 35 3 -0.08
122 12 21 - 4 0 0 12 39 29.0 41 324 -35 121 13 28 123 11 23 120 28 18 123 56 53 -0.08
121 34 48 - 3 0 0 12 39 17.6 42 324 -35 120 36 4 122 33 41 119 51 0 123 19 2 -0.08
120 57 29 - 2 0 0 12 39 5.9 44 324 -34 119 58 53 121 56 13 119 13 54 122 41 28 -0.08
120 20 22 - 1 0 0 12 38 53.9 45 324 -34 119 21 52 121 19 0 118 36 57 122 4 8 -0.08
119 43 26 0 0 0 12 38 41.7 46 324 -34 118 44 59 120 41 58 118 0 7 121 27 2 -0.08
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2021 Nov 30.0
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