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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (0) 2015BM518 - 2022 Mar 27

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2022 JAN 31, 04:21 UT

Event Rank : 9

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

2015BM518 Update Map


On 2022 Mar 27 UT, the 168.3 km diameter asteroid 2015 BM518 will occult a 13.1 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a fairly broad path across the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, from about Auckland to Kumara, and across eastern Australia, across central New South Wales at low and decreasing elevation and into evening twilight.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.84 mag to 21.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.800 seconds.

This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.

This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
Occultation of UCAC4-398-053247 by 0 2015 BM518 on 2022 Mar 27
                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits       Alt
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4   Crn
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    122  0  0   -23 17 24    9 25 23.5     0   102     6  -22  9 11  -24 27  9   .. .. ..  -46 14  7   ....
    123  0  0   -23 29 21    9 25 23.4     1   101     5  -22 20 59  -24 39 15   .. .. ..  -46 32 20   0.76
    124  0  0   -23 41 54    9 25 23.3     2   101     4  -22 33 23  -24 51 59   .. .. ..  -46 51 35   0.90
    125  0  0   -23 55  5    9 25 23.0     3   100     3  -22 46 23  -25  5 20   .. .. ..  -47 11 51   0.96
    126  0  0   -24  8 52    9 25 22.6     4   100     3  -23  0  0  -25 19 18   .. .. ..  -47 33 10   0.99

    127  0  0   -24 23 15    9 25 22.1     5    99     2  -23 14 12  -25 33 53   .. .. ..  -47 55 32   1.01
    128  0  0   -24 38 14    9 25 21.5     6    99     1  -23 29  0  -25 49  5   .. .. ..  -48 18 58   1.02
    129  0  0   -24 53 50    9 25 20.8     7    99     0  -23 44 24  -26  4 53   .. .. ..  -48 43 28   1.03
    130  0  0   -25 10  0    9 25 20.0     8    98    -1  -24  0 22  -26 21 17   .. .. ..  -49  9  4   1.04
    131  0  0   -25 26 46    9 25 19.1     9    98    -2  -24 16 56  -26 38 16   .. .. ..  -49 35 47   1.04

    132  0  0   -25 44  7    9 25 18.0    10    97    -3  -24 34  4  -26 55 52   .. .. ..  -50  3 36   1.05
    133  0  0   -26  2  3    9 25 16.9    11    97    -4  -24 51 46  -27 14  2   .. .. ..  -50 32 35   1.05
    134  0  0   -26 20 34    9 25 15.7    11    96    -5  -25 10  2  -27 32 47   .. .. ..  -51  2 43   1.05
    135  0  0   -26 39 38    9 25 14.4    12    96    -6  -25 28 52  -27 52  7   .. .. ..  -51 34  2   1.06
    136  0  0   -26 59 16    9 25 13.0    13    95    -7  -25 48 15  -28 12  2   .. .. ..  -52  6 35   1.06

    137  0  0   -27 19 27    9 25 11.5    14    95    -7  -26  8 11  -28 32 30   .. .. ..  -52 40 23   1.06
    138  0  0   -27 40 12    9 25  9.9    15    94    -8  -26 28 39  -28 53 31   .. .. ..  -53 15 28   1.06
    139  0  0   -28  1 29    9 25  8.2    16    94    -9  -26 49 40  -29 15  5   .. .. ..  -53 51 53   1.06
    140  0  0   -28 23 18    9 25  6.4    17    93   -10  -27 11 12  -29 37 12   .. .. ..  -54 29 40   1.07
    141  0  0   -28 45 38    9 25  4.5    18    93   -11  -27 33 16  -29 59 51   .. .. ..  -55  8 55   1.07

    142  0  0   -29  8 30    9 25  2.5    19    92   -12  -27 55 50  -30 23  2   .. .. ..  -55 49 39   1.07
    143  0  0   -29 31 53    9 25  0.4    20    91   -13  -28 18 55  -30 46 44   .. .. ..  -56 32  0   1.07
    144  0  0   -29 55 46    9 24 58.3    20    91   -13  -28 42 30  -31 10 56   .. .. ..  -57 16  2   1.07
    145  0  0   -30 20  8    9 24 56.0    21    90   -14  -29  6 34  -31 35 39   .. .. ..  -58  1 53   1.07
    146  0  0   -30 44 59    9 24 53.7    22    90   -15  -29 31  6  -32  0 51   .. .. ..  -58 49 42   1.07

    147  0  0   -31 10 19    9 24 51.2    23    89   -16  -29 56  7  -32 26 32   .. .. ..  -59 39 41   1.07
    148  0  0   -31 36  7    9 24 48.7    24    88   -17  -30 21 36  -32 52 41   .. .. ..  -60 32  5   1.07
    149  0  0   -32  2 22    9 24 46.1    25    87   -17  -30 47 31  -33 19 17   .. .. ..  -61 27 14   1.07
    150  0  0   -32 29  4    9 24 43.4    25    87   -18  -31 13 52  -33 46 20   .. .. ..  -62 25 34   1.08
    151  0  0   -32 56 11    9 24 40.7    26    86   -19  -31 40 39  -34 13 50   .. .. ..  -63 27 45   1.08

    152  0  0   -33 23 44    9 24 37.8    27    85   -20  -32  7 51  -34 41 45   .. .. ..  -64 34 46   1.08
    153  0  0   -33 51 40    9 24 34.9    28    84   -20  -32 35 27  -35 10  4  -17 14 35  -65 48 14   1.08
    154  0  0   -34 20  1    9 24 31.9    29    83   -21  -33  3 27  -35 38 48  -17 39 26  -67 11 11   1.08
    155  0  0   -34 48 44    9 24 28.9    29    83   -22  -33 31 49  -36  7 54  -18  4 39  -68 50 45   1.08
    156  0  0   -35 17 49    9 24 25.7    30    82   -22  -34  0 32  -36 37 22  -18 30 13  -71 17 49   1.08

    157  0  0   -35 47 15    9 24 22.6    31    81   -23  -34 29 37  -37  7 12  -18 56  7   .. .. ..   1.08
    158  0  0   -36 17  1    9 24 19.3    32    80   -24  -34 59  2  -37 37 22  -19 22 21   .. .. ..   1.08
    159  0  0   -36 47  7    9 24 16.0    32    79   -24  -35 28 45  -38  7 51  -19 48 54   .. .. ..   1.08
    160  0  0   -37 17 31    9 24 12.6    33    78   -25  -35 58 47  -38 38 39  -20 15 46   .. .. ..   1.08
    161  0  0   -37 48 12    9 24  9.2    34    77   -26  -36 29  7  -39  9 43  -20 42 56   .. .. ..   1.08

    162  0  0   -38 19  9    9 24  5.8    34    76   -26  -36 59 42  -39 41  5  -21 10 22   .. .. ..   1.08
    163  0  0   -38 50 22    9 24  2.2    35    75   -27  -37 30 33  -40 12 41  -21 38  6   .. .. ..   1.08
    164  0  0   -39 21 48    9 23 58.7    35    73   -27  -38  1 38  -40 44 32  -22  6  4   .. .. ..   1.08
    165  0  0   -39 53 28    9 23 55.1    36    72   -28  -38 32 57  -41 16 35  -22 34 18   .. .. ..   1.09
    166  0  0   -40 25 20    9 23 51.5    36    71   -28  -39  4 27  -41 48 51  -23  2 45   .. .. ..   1.09

    167  0  0   -40 57 23    9 23 47.8    37    70   -29  -39 36  9  -42 21 17  -23 31 26   .. .. ..   1.09
    168  0  0   -41 29 35    9 23 44.1    37    69   -29  -40  8  0  -42 53 52  -24  0 20   .. .. ..   1.09
    169  0  0   -42  1 56    9 23 40.4    38    67   -30  -40 40  1  -43 26 36  -24 29 25   .. .. ..   1.09
    170  0  0   -42 34 25    9 23 36.6    38    66   -30  -41 12  9  -43 59 27  -24 58 41   .. .. ..   1.09
    171  0  0   -43  6 59    9 23 32.8    39    65   -30  -41 44 23  -44 32 24  -25 28  7   .. .. ..   1.09

    172  0  0   -43 39 39    9 23 29.1    39    64   -31  -42 16 43  -45  5 26  -25 57 42   .. .. ..   1.09
    173  0  0   -44 12 22    9 23 25.3    40    62   -31  -42 49  7  -45 38 31  -26 27 26   .. .. ..   1.09
    174  0  0   -44 45  8    9 23 21.5    40    61   -31  -43 21 34  -46 11 37  -26 57 17   .. .. ..   1.09
    175  0  0   -45 17 55    9 23 17.6    40    59   -32  -43 54  3  -46 44 45  -27 27 14   .. .. ..   1.09
    176  0  0   -45 50 43    9 23 13.8    41    58   -32  -44 26 33  -47 17 52  -27 57 17   .. .. ..   1.09

    177  0  0   -46 23 29    9 23 10.0    41    57   -32  -44 59  1  -47 50 57  -28 27 25   .. .. ..   1.09
    178  0  0   -46 56 12    9 23  6.2    41    55   -32  -45 31 28  -48 23 59  -28 57 36   .. .. ..   1.09
Uncertainty in time = +/- 65 secs
Prediction of 2022 Jan 31.2

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