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Updated: 2022 SEP 12, 16:23 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Nov 02 UT, the 108.4 km diameter asteroid (514) Armida will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across New Zealand, just grazing the coast of the North Island at Cape Reinga, and across northern New South Wales from Coffs Harbour to Tibooburra at low and decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.74 mag to 15.21 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.980 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0837-01157-1 by 514 Armida on 2022 Nov 2
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
139 26 21 -30 37 59 16 41 40.0 3 79 -34 144 45 30 -29 22 13 ... .. .. .. .. .. 144 52 45 -29 20 8 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
142 6 52 -30 23 34 16 41 41.1 5 78 -33 146 1 34 -29 19 36 ... .. .. .. .. .. 146 7 51 -29 17 39 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.11
143 52 12 -30 16 53 16 41 42.2 6 77 -32 147 8 51 -29 18 15 ... .. .. .. .. .. 147 14 28 -29 16 23 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.30
145 16 53 -30 13 7 16 41 43.3 8 76 -31 148 9 52 -29 17 47 140 18 14 -31 26 19 148 15 0 -29 15 59 139 59 6 -31 30 5 1.36
146 29 49 -30 11 1 16 41 44.4 9 76 -30 149 6 7 -29 18 1 142 39 30 -31 14 40 149 10 53 -29 16 16 142 28 24 -31 17 19 1.39
147 34 53 -30 10 3 16 41 45.4 9 75 -29 149 58 36 -29 18 48 144 19 3 -31 8 52 150 3 4 -29 17 6 144 10 28 -31 11 10 1.41
148 34 13 -30 9 54 16 41 46.5 10 75 -29 150 48 1 -29 20 2 145 40 38 -31 5 37 150 52 13 -29 18 22 145 33 24 -31 7 44 1.42
149 29 9 -30 10 24 16 41 47.6 11 74 -28 151 34 50 -29 21 39 146 51 32 -31 3 53 151 38 50 -29 20 1 146 45 9 -31 5 53 1.43
150 20 33 -30 11 25 16 41 48.7 12 74 -28 152 19 28 -29 23 36 147 55 8 -31 3 12 152 23 16 -29 21 59 147 49 22 -31 5 7 1.44
151 9 2 -30 12 52 16 41 49.8 12 73 -27 153 2 12 -29 25 50 148 53 20 -31 3 18 153 5 50 -29 24 14 148 48 2 -31 5 9 1.45
151 55 5 -30 14 40 16 41 50.8 13 73 -27 153 43 15 -29 28 19 149 47 21 -31 4 1 153 46 45 -29 26 45 149 42 25 -31 5 48 1.45
152 39 1 -30 16 48 16 41 51.9 14 72 -26 154 22 50 -29 31 2 150 37 59 -31 5 13 154 26 12 -29 29 29 150 33 22 -31 6 58 1.45
153 21 9 -30 19 12 16 41 53.0 14 72 -26 155 1 5 -29 33 58 151 25 50 -31 6 50 155 4 21 -29 32 25 151 21 28 -31 8 33 1.46
154 1 40 -30 21 51 16 41 54.1 15 71 -25 155 38 9 -29 37 4 152 11 19 -31 8 49 155 41 19 -29 35 33 152 7 10 -31 10 30 1.46
154 40 45 -30 24 43 16 41 55.2 15 71 -25 156 14 9 -29 40 21 152 54 46 -31 11 5 156 17 13 -29 38 50 152 50 48 -31 12 45 1.46
155 18 35 -30 27 47 16 41 56.3 16 71 -24 156 49 9 -29 43 47 153 36 28 -31 13 38 156 52 8 -29 42 17 153 32 39 -31 15 17 1.46
155 55 15 -30 31 2 16 41 57.3 16 70 -24 157 23 16 -29 47 23 154 16 35 -31 16 26 157 26 10 -29 45 53 154 12 55 -31 18 3 1.47
156 30 52 -30 34 27 16 41 58.4 17 70 -23 157 56 33 -29 51 6 154 55 20 -31 19 26 157 59 23 -29 49 37 154 51 48 -31 21 2 1.47
157 5 33 -30 38 2 16 41 59.5 17 70 -23 158 29 4 -29 54 57 155 32 50 -31 22 38 158 31 50 -29 53 28 155 29 24 -31 24 14 1.47
157 39 21 -30 41 45 16 42 0.6 18 69 -22 159 0 52 -29 58 55 156 9 12 -31 26 1 159 3 35 -29 57 27 156 5 53 -31 27 36 1.47
158 12 20 -30 45 36 16 42 1.7 18 69 -22 159 32 1 -30 3 0 156 44 34 -31 29 34 159 34 40 -30 1 32 156 41 20 -31 31 8 1.47
158 44 35 -30 49 34 16 42 2.7 18 69 -21 160 2 33 -30 7 11 157 18 59 -31 33 16 160 5 9 -30 5 44 157 15 51 -31 34 49 1.47
159 16 8 -30 53 40 16 42 3.8 19 68 -21 160 32 30 -30 11 28 157 52 33 -31 37 7 160 35 3 -30 10 2 157 49 29 -31 38 39 1.47
159 47 3 -30 57 52 16 42 4.9 19 68 -21 161 1 55 -30 15 52 158 25 19 -31 41 5 161 4 25 -30 14 25 158 22 20 -31 42 37 1.48
160 17 21 -31 2 11 16 42 6.0 20 67 -20 161 30 49 -30 20 20 158 57 22 -31 45 11 161 33 16 -30 18 54 158 54 27 -31 46 42 1.48
160 47 6 -31 6 35 16 42 7.1 20 67 -20 161 59 14 -30 24 54 159 28 44 -31 49 24 162 1 39 -30 23 28 159 25 53 -31 50 54 1.48
161 16 19 -31 11 5 16 42 8.2 20 67 -19 162 27 12 -30 29 33 159 59 28 -31 53 43 162 29 35 -30 28 7 159 56 40 -31 55 13 1.48
161 45 2 -31 15 41 16 42 9.2 21 66 -19 162 54 45 -30 34 17 160 29 36 -31 58 9 162 57 5 -30 32 51 160 26 52 -31 59 39 1.48
162 13 16 -31 20 22 16 42 10.3 21 66 -19 163 21 53 -30 39 5 160 59 11 -32 2 40 163 24 11 -30 37 40 160 56 30 -32 4 10 1.48
162 41 4 -31 25 8 16 42 11.4 21 66 -18 163 48 38 -30 43 58 161 28 15 -32 7 18 163 50 54 -30 42 33 161 25 37 -32 8 47 1.48
163 8 27 -31 29 59 16 42 12.5 22 65 -18 164 15 0 -30 48 55 161 56 50 -32 12 1 164 17 15 -30 47 30 161 54 14 -32 13 30 1.48
163 35 26 -31 34 54 16 42 13.6 22 65 -17 164 41 2 -30 53 56 162 24 56 -32 16 49 164 43 15 -30 52 31 162 22 23 -32 18 17 1.48
164 2 2 -31 39 54 16 42 14.6 22 65 -17 165 6 44 -30 59 1 162 52 37 -32 21 42 165 8 55 -30 57 37 162 50 6 -32 23 10 1.48
164 28 17 -31 44 58 16 42 15.7 23 64 -17 165 32 7 -31 4 11 163 19 52 -32 26 39 165 34 16 -31 2 46 163 17 24 -32 28 7 1.48
164 54 11 -31 50 6 16 42 16.8 23 64 -16 165 57 11 -31 9 24 163 46 44 -32 31 42 165 59 19 -31 7 59 163 44 18 -32 33 10 1.48
165 19 45 -31 55 19 16 42 17.9 23 64 -16 166 21 58 -31 14 40 164 13 14 -32 36 48 166 24 4 -31 13 16 164 10 50 -32 38 16 1.48
165 45 1 -32 0 35 16 42 19.0 24 63 -16 166 46 29 -31 20 1 164 39 22 -32 42 0 166 48 33 -31 18 37 164 37 0 -32 43 27 1.48
166 9 59 -32 5 55 16 42 20.0 24 63 -15 167 10 43 -31 25 24 165 5 10 -32 47 15 167 12 46 -31 24 1 165 2 50 -32 48 42 1.48
166 34 39 -32 11 18 16 42 21.1 24 63 -15 167 34 42 -31 30 52 165 30 39 -32 52 34 167 36 44 -31 29 28 165 28 20 -32 54 1 1.48
166 59 3 -32 16 46 16 42 22.2 24 63 -15 167 58 26 -31 36 22 165 55 49 -32 57 58 168 0 27 -31 34 59 165 53 32 -32 59 25 1.48
167 23 12 -32 22 17 16 42 23.3 25 62 -14 168 21 57 -31 41 56 166 20 41 -33 3 25 168 23 56 -31 40 32 166 18 26 -33 4 51 1.48
167 47 5 -32 27 51 16 42 24.4 25 62 -14 168 45 13 -31 47 33 166 45 17 -33 8 55 168 47 11 -31 46 9 166 43 4 -33 10 22 1.48
168 10 44 -32 33 28 16 42 25.5 25 62 -14 169 8 17 -31 53 13 167 9 37 -33 14 30 169 10 13 -31 51 50 167 7 25 -33 15 56 1.49
168 34 9 -32 39 9 16 42 26.5 25 61 -13 169 31 7 -31 58 56 167 33 41 -33 20 8 169 33 3 -31 57 33 167 31 30 -33 21 34 1.49
168 57 21 -32 44 53 16 42 27.6 26 61 -13 169 53 46 -32 4 42 167 57 30 -33 25 49 169 55 41 -32 3 19 167 55 21 -33 27 16 1.49
169 20 19 -32 50 41 16 42 28.7 26 61 -13 170 16 13 -32 10 31 168 21 4 -33 31 34 170 18 6 -32 9 8 168 18 57 -33 33 0 1.49
169 43 6 -32 56 31 16 42 29.8 26 60 -12 170 38 29 -32 16 23 168 44 25 -33 37 22 170 40 21 -32 15 0 168 42 19 -33 38 48 1.49
170 5 40 -33 2 24 16 42 30.9 26 60 -12 171 0 33 -32 22 18 169 7 33 -33 43 14 171 2 25 -32 20 55 169 5 28 -33 44 40 1.49
170 28 3 -33 8 20 16 42 31.9 27 60 -12 171 22 28 -32 28 16 169 30 29 -33 49 8 171 24 18 -32 26 53 169 28 25 -33 50 34 1.49
170 50 15 -33 14 20 16 42 33.0 27 59 -11 171 44 12 -32 34 16 169 53 11 -33 55 6 171 46 1 -32 32 53 169 51 9 -33 56 32 1.49
171 12 16 -33 20 22 16 42 34.1 27 59 -11 172 5 46 -32 40 19 170 15 43 -34 1 6 172 7 35 -32 38 56 170 13 41 -34 2 32 1.49
171 34 6 -33 26 27 16 42 35.2 27 59 -11 172 27 11 -32 46 25 170 38 2 -34 7 10 172 28 59 -32 45 2 170 36 2 -34 8 36 1.49
171 55 47 -33 32 34 16 42 36.3 27 58 -10 172 48 26 -32 52 34 171 0 11 -34 13 17 172 50 14 -32 51 11 170 58 12 -34 14 43 1.49
172 17 18 -33 38 45 16 42 37.4 28 58 -10 173 9 33 -32 58 45 171 22 10 -34 19 26 173 11 19 -32 57 22 171 20 11 -34 20 52 1.49
172 38 40 -33 44 58 16 42 38.4 28 58 -10 173 30 31 -33 4 58 171 43 58 -34 25 39 173 32 17 -33 3 35 171 42 0 -34 27 5 1.49
172 59 53 -33 51 14 16 42 39.5 28 57 -9 173 51 21 -33 11 14 172 5 36 -34 31 54 173 53 6 -33 9 52 172 3 40 -34 33 20 1.49
173 20 57 -33 57 33 16 42 40.6 28 57 -9 174 12 3 -33 17 33 172 27 5 -34 38 12 174 13 47 -33 16 10 172 25 9 -34 39 38 1.49
173 41 52 -34 3 54 16 42 41.7 28 57 -9 174 32 37 -33 23 54 172 48 25 -34 44 33 174 34 20 -33 22 32 172 46 30 -34 45 59 1.49
174 2 40 -34 10 18 16 42 42.8 29 56 -8 174 53 3 -33 30 18 173 9 35 -34 50 57 174 54 46 -33 28 55 173 7 41 -34 52 23 1.49
174 23 19 -34 16 44 16 42 43.8 29 56 -8 175 13 22 -33 36 44 173 30 37 -34 57 23 175 15 4 -33 35 21 173 28 44 -34 58 49 1.49
174 43 51 -34 23 13 16 42 44.9 29 56 -8 175 33 34 -33 43 13 173 51 31 -35 3 53 175 35 16 -33 41 50 173 49 39 -35 5 18 1.49
175 4 16 -34 29 44 16 42 46.0 29 55 -7 175 53 40 -33 49 44 174 12 17 -35 10 24 175 55 20 -33 48 21 174 10 25 -35 11 50 1.49
175 24 33 -34 36 18 16 42 47.1 29 55 -7 176 13 38 -33 56 17 174 32 55 -35 16 59 176 15 18 -33 54 54 174 31 4 -35 18 24 1.49
175 44 43 -34 42 55 16 42 48.2 29 55 -7 176 33 30 -34 2 53 174 53 26 -35 23 35 176 35 10 -34 1 30 174 51 35 -35 25 1 1.49
176 4 47 -34 49 33 16 42 49.2 30 54 -7 176 53 16 -34 9 31 175 13 49 -35 30 15 176 54 55 -34 8 8 175 11 59 -35 31 41 1.49
176 24 44 -34 56 15 16 42 50.3 30 54 -6 177 12 56 -34 16 11 175 34 5 -35 36 57 177 14 34 -34 14 48 175 32 16 -35 38 23 1.49
176 44 35 -35 2 58 16 42 51.4 30 54 -6 177 32 29 -34 22 54 175 54 14 -35 43 42 177 34 7 -34 21 31 175 52 26 -35 45 7 1.49
177 4 19 -35 9 45 16 42 52.5 30 53 -6 177 51 58 -34 29 39 176 14 17 -35 50 29 177 53 35 -34 28 16 176 12 30 -35 51 55 1.49
177 23 58 -35 16 33 16 42 53.6 30 53 -5 178 11 20 -34 36 26 176 34 13 -35 57 18 178 12 57 -34 35 3 176 32 26 -35 58 44 1.49
177 43 31 -35 23 24 16 42 54.7 30 53 -5 178 30 37 -34 43 16 176 54 3 -36 4 11 178 32 13 -34 41 53 176 52 17 -36 5 36 1.49
178 2 58 -35 30 17 16 42 55.7 30 52 -5 178 49 49 -34 50 8 177 13 47 -36 11 5 178 51 25 -34 48 45 177 12 2 -36 12 31 1.49
178 22 20 -35 37 13 16 42 56.8 31 52 -4 179 8 56 -34 57 2 177 33 25 -36 18 2 179 10 31 -34 55 39 177 31 41 -36 19 28 1.49
178 41 36 -35 44 11 16 42 57.9 31 52 -4 179 27 58 -35 3 59 177 52 58 -36 25 2 179 29 33 -35 2 35 177 51 14 -36 26 28 1.49
179 0 48 -35 51 11 16 42 59.0 31 51 -4 179 46 55 -35 10 57 178 12 25 -36 32 4 179 48 30 -35 9 34 178 10 41 -36 33 30 1.49
179 19 55 -35 58 14 16 43 0.1 31 51 -4 -179 54 12 -35 17 58 178 31 47 -36 39 8 -179 52 38 -35 16 35 178 30 4 -36 40 34 1.49
179 38 56 -36 5 19 16 43 1.1 31 51 -3 -179 35 24 -35 25 1 178 51 3 -36 46 15 -179 33 50 -35 23 38 178 49 21 -36 47 41 1.49
179 57 54 -36 12 26 16 43 2.2 31 50 -3 -179 16 40 -35 32 7 179 10 15 -36 53 24 -179 15 7 -35 30 43 179 8 33 -36 54 51 1.49
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2022 Sep 12.7
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