This prediction update has been computed by Stephen Kerr based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Navel Observatory - Flagstaff Station. The HIP position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

The updated path lies a full 1.1" to the east and around 90 seconds earlier than that given by Goffin. The path now clips the southern portions of the South Island of New Zealand from around Dunedin to Invercargill (17:36:05 UT). The path crosses the Victorian coast in the east Gippsland district (17:38:35 UT) before passing on through the Albury/Wangaratta area and just south of Broken Hill (17:40:00 UT). The path passes near Uluru/Yulara in the Northern Territory (17:42:10 UT) before leaving the Western Australian coastline near Derby (17:44:00 UT).

OBSERVERS SHOULD NOTE THAT THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN GENERATED USING ONLY TWO ASTEROID POSITIONS ON CONSEQUTIVE DAYS ALMOST A MONTH BEFORE THE EVENT. AS SUCH THE PATH IS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE POSTED PRIOR TO THE EVENT.

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

• Date and approx. UT time of event: May 12, 2000 @ 17:42 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 9.24
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 3.5
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 9.6
• Path description: See above.

• Approximate width [km]: 100

• Name: HIP 84058 = PPM 232717 = SAO 160342
• Constellation: Ophiuchus
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 17h 11m 06.167s; -15^o 13' 04.91"
• Position source: HIP
• V mag [mag]: 9.24
• B-V [mag]: +0.44
• Remarks:
• The target star is 32' NNW of eta Oph.

• Number, name: (694) Ekard
• Approx. diameter [km]: 92.7
• Source of used astrometry: US Navel Observatory - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone)
• Number of used observations: 2
• Number of rejected observations: 0
• Time covered by the observations: 2000 04 16 - 2000 04 17

• UT date and time of least geocentric approach: 2000 May 12 17:42.977 UTC
• Approx. V mag of minor planet at event [mag]: 12.6
• Geocentric parallax of minor planet ["]: 5.90
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 3.5
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 9.5
• Apparent motion of minor planet ["/h]: 32.46
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 91, 70%
• Update computed by: Kerr (OCCULT 4.2)

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.