RASNZ Occultation Section - Palma Occultation Update

ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (372) PALMA - 2003 JUL 15

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

UPDATE: 2003 JUN 14, 00:57 UT

THE UPDATED PATH

On 2003 Jul 15 UT, the 188 km diameter asteroid (372) Palma will occult a 13.0 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a path across New Zealand, Australia and Indonesia.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.1 mag to 13.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.3 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from AstDys, and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :

Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to
the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path
width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path).
Date and approx. UT time of event : 2003 Jul 15, 13:50 - 13:56 UT
(Refer to map for your own location)
Magnitude of target star : 13.0
Magnitude drop [mag] : 1.1
Estimated maximum duration [s] : 16.3
Phase of moon, angular distance : 96 % sunlit, 80° distance
Sun : 118° distance
Rough path description : New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia

Data for the target star :

Name : TYC 8280-00410-1
Constellation : Lupus
J2000 position [h,m,s ; °,',"]: RA: 14 51 29.2247 DE: -45 42 00.931
Position source : Pos: UCAC2, pm: UCAC2, pi:
Standard error : RA,DE ["]: ( .018, .018 )
V mag [mag] : 13.0
Remarks : (none)

Data for the minor planet :

Number, name : (372) Palma
Approx. diameter [km] : 188
Approx. diameter [arcsec] : .078
Source of used astrometry : FASTT TMO Astdys
Number of used observations : 385
Number of rejected observations : 29
Time covered by the observations : 1904 Aug 04 - 2002 Apr 30
1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : 0.032, 0.018, 101°
Remarks :
Update computed by : Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA. (OrbFit).

The Occultation Path :

Approximate projected width [km] : 312
Uncertainty interval [path widths] : +/- 0.47 (1 sigma)
Uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["] : (+/- .037 +/- .025) (1 sigma)
Uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA) : ( .037", .025", 98° ) (1 sigma)
Remarks :
Path Co-ordinates :

                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                        Longitude  Longitude  Longitude  Longitude
    ... .. ..    21  0  0   .. .. ..    ..    ..    ..  ... .. ..  145 22 17  ... .. ..  145 22 17
    146 26 25    20  0  0   13 59 47     1   220   -48  ... .. ..  144 33 35  ... .. ..  144 33 35
    145 37 53    19  0  0   13 59 47     2   220   -49  147 33 53  143 48 24  147 33 53  143 48 24
    144 52 58    18  0  0   13 59 46     4   219   -50  146 45 26  143  6 27  146 45 26  143  6 27
    144 11 20    17  0  0   13 59 44     5   219   -51  146  0 43  142 27 27  146  0 43  142 27 27

    143 32 44    16  0  0   13 59 43     6   219   -52  145 19 22  141 51 13  145 19 22  141 51 13
    142 56 56    15  0  0   13 59 41     7   219   -53  144 41  8  141 17 31  144 41  8  141 17 31
    142 23 45    14  0  0   13 59 38     8   219   -53  144  5 46  140 46 14  144  5 46  140 46 14
    141 53  0    13  0  0   13 59 36     9   219   -54  143 33  4  140 17 11  143 33  4  140 17 11
    141 24 33    12  0  0   13 59 33    10   219   -55  143  2 51  139 50 15  143  2 51  139 50 15

    140 58 15    11  0  0   13 59 29    11   219   -56  142 35  0  139 25 21  142 35  0  139 25 21
    140 34  1    10  0  0   13 59 26    12   218   -57  142  9 21  139  2 21  142  9 21  139  2 21
    140 11 44     9  0  0   13 59 22    13   218   -58  141 45 48  138 41 11  141 45 48  138 41 11
    139 51 19     8  0  0   13 59 18    14   219   -58  141 24 16  138 21 46  141 24 16  138 21 46
    139 32 42     7  0  0   13 59 14    15   219   -59  141  4 39  138  4  3  141  4 39  138  4  3

    139 15 48     6  0  0   13 59  9    16   219   -60  140 46 52  137 47 57  140 46 52  137 47 57
    139  0 35     5  0  0   13 59  5    17   219   -61  140 30 51  137 33 25  140 30 51  137 33 25
    138 46 59     4  0  0   13 59  0    18   219   -62  140 16 34  137 20 26  140 16 34  137 20 26
    138 34 57     3  0  0   13 58 54    19   219   -62  140  3 57  137  8 56  140  3 57  137  8 56
    138 24 28     2  0  0   13 58 49    20   219   -63  139 52 58  136 58 54  139 52 58  136 58 54

    138 15 29     1  0  0   13 58 43    21   219   -64  139 43 33  136 50 17  139 43 33  136 50 17
    138  7 58     0  0  0   13 58 38    22   220   -65  139 35 43  136 43  5  139 35 43  136 43  5
    138  1 55   - 1  0  0   13 58 32    23   220   -65  139 29 25  136 37 15  139 29 25  136 37 15
    137 57 19   - 2  0  0   13 58 25    23   220   -66  139 24 37  136 32 48  139 24 37  136 32 48
    137 54  8   - 3  0  0   13 58 19    24   220   -67  139 21 20  136 29 42  139 21 20  136 29 42

    137 52 22   - 4  0  0   13 58 12    25   221   -68  139 19 32  136 27 58  139 19 32  136 27 58
    137 52  0   - 5  0  0   13 58  5    26   221   -69  139 19 14  136 27 34  139 19 14  136 27 34
    137 53  4   - 6  0  0   13 57 58    27   221   -69  139 20 25  136 28 31  139 20 25  136 28 31
    137 55 33   - 7  0  0   13 57 51    27   222   -70  139 23  6  136 30 49  139 23  6  136 30 49
    137 59 28   - 8  0  0   13 57 44    28   222   -71  139 27 17  136 34 29  139 27 17  136 34 29

    138  4 50   - 9  0  0   13 57 36    29   222   -72  139 33  0  136 39 31  139 33  0  136 39 31
    138 11 39   -10  0  0   13 57 29    29   223   -72  139 40 15  136 45 56  139 40 15  136 45 56
    138 19 57   -11  0  0   13 57 21    30   223   -73  139 49  4  136 53 46  139 49  4  136 53 46
    138 29 46   -12  0  0   13 57 13    31   223   -74  139 59 29  137  3  3  139 59 29  137  3  3
    138 41  8   -13  0  0   13 57  4    31   224   -74  140 11 32  137 13 47  140 11 32  137 13 47

    138 54  5   -14  0  0   13 56 56    32   224   -75  140 25 16  137 26  2  140 25 16  137 26  2
    139  8 41   -15  0  0   13 56 47    33   225   -76  140 40 44  137 39 49  140 40 44  137 39 49
    139 24 57   -16  0  0   13 56 38    33   225   -76  140 58  0  137 55 11  140 58  0  137 55 11
    139 42 58   -17  0  0   13 56 29    34   226   -77  141 17  7  138 12 12  141 17  7  138 12 12
    140  2 47   -18  0  0   13 56 20    34   226   -78  141 38 10  138 30 56  141 38 10  138 30 56

    140 24 31   -19  0  0   13 56 11    35   227   -78  142  1 15  138 51 26  142  1 15  138 51 26
    140 48 13   -20  0  0   13 56  1    35   227   -79  142 26 28  139 13 47  142 26 28  139 13 47
    141 14  0   -21  0  0   13 55 52    35   228   -79  142 53 55  139 38  4  142 53 55  139 38  4
    141 41 58   -22  0  0   13 55 42    36   229   -80  143 23 45  140  4 24  143 23 45  140  4 24
    142 12 17   -23  0  0   13 55 32    36   229   -80  143 56  7  140 32 54  143 56  7  140 32 54


                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    143  0  0   -24 25 53   13 55 17    36   230   -80  -21 12 38  -27 12 58  -21 12 38  -27 12 58
    144  0  0   -26  1 53   13 55  0    37   231   -81  -23  6 54  -28 36 47  -23  6 54  -28 36 47
    145  0  0   -27 27 19   13 54 44    37   232   -81  -24 45 59  -29 52 32  -24 45 59  -29 52 32
    146  0  0   -28 44 12   13 54 29    37   232   -80  -26 13 33  -31  1 29  -26 13 33  -31  1 29
    147  0  0   -29 53 57   13 54 15    37   233   -80  -27 31 57  -32  4 36  -27 31 57  -32  4 36

    148  0  0   -30 57 39   13 54  3    37   234   -79  -28 42 48  -33  2 40  -28 42 48  -33  2 40
    149  0  0   -31 56  5   13 53 50    37   234   -79  -29 47 16  -33 56 14  -29 47 16  -33 56 14
    150  0  0   -32 49 54   13 53 39    37   234   -78  -30 46 15  -34 45 50  -30 46 15  -34 45 50
    151  0  0   -33 39 36   13 53 28    37   235   -78  -31 40 26  -35 31 49  -31 40 26  -35 31 49
    152  0  0   -34 25 37   13 53 17    37   235   -77  -32 30 22  -36 14 32  -32 30 22  -36 14 32

    153  0  0   -35  8 17   13 53  7    36   235   -76  -33 16 29  -36 54 16  -33 16 29  -36 54 16
    154  0  0   -35 47 53   13 52 58    36   235   -76  -33 59 10  -37 31 15  -33 59 10  -37 31 15
    155  0  0   -36 24 42   13 52 48    36   236   -75  -34 38 42  -38  5 42  -34 38 42  -38  5 42
    156  0  0   -36 58 54   13 52 39    35   236   -74  -35 15 21  -38 37 47  -35 15 21  -38 37 47
    157  0  0   -37 30 42   13 52 31    35   236   -74  -35 49 20  -39  7 40  -35 49 20  -39  7 40

    158  0  0   -38  0 14   13 52 22    35   236   -73  -36 20 52  -39 35 28  -36 20 52  -39 35 28
    159  0  0   -38 27 40   13 52 14    34   236   -72  -36 50  4  -40  1 19  -36 50  4  -40  1 19
    160  0  0   -38 53  6   13 52  7    34   236   -72  -37 17  7  -40 25 19  -37 17  7  -40 25 19
    161  0  0   -39 16 38   13 51 59    34   235   -71  -37 42  7  -40 47 33  -37 42  7  -40 47 33
    162  0  0   -39 38 24   13 51 52    33   235   -70  -38  5 12  -41  8  8  -38  5 12  -41  8  8

    163  0  0   -39 58 26   13 51 45    33   235   -70  -38 26 26  -41 27  7  -38 26 26  -41 27  7
    164  0  0   -40 16 51   13 51 38    32   235   -69  -38 45 55  -41 44 33  -38 45 55  -41 44 33
    165  0  0   -40 33 41   13 51 31    32   235   -69  -39  3 43  -42  0 32  -39  3 43  -42  0 32
    166  0  0   -40 49  1   13 51 25    31   235   -68  -39 19 54  -42 15  5  -39 19 54  -42 15  5
    167  0  0   -41  2 53   13 51 18    31   234   -67  -39 34 32  -42 28 15  -39 34 32  -42 28 15

    168  0  0   -41 15 20   13 51 12    30   234   -67  -39 47 40  -42 40  5  -39 47 40  -42 40  5
    169  0  0   -41 26 25   13 51  6    30   234   -66  -39 59 20  -42 50 38  -39 59 20  -42 50 38
    170  0  0   -41 36  9   13 51  0    30   233   -66  -40  9 35  -42 59 54  -40  9 35  -42 59 54
    171  0  0   -41 44 34   13 50 54    29   233   -65  -40 18 26  -43  7 55  -40 18 26  -43  7 55
    172  0  0   -41 51 41   13 50 48    29   233   -65  -40 25 55  -43 14 43  -40 25 55  -43 14 43

    173  0  0   -41 57 33   13 50 43    28   232   -64  -40 32  4  -43 20 19  -40 32  4  -43 20 19
    174  0  0   -42  2  9   13 50 37    27   232   -63  -40 36 53  -43 24 43  -40 36 53  -43 24 43
    175  0  0   -42  5 31   13 50 32    27   232   -63  -40 40 24  -43 27 57  -40 40 24  -43 27 57
    176  0  0   -42  7 39   13 50 27    26   231   -62  -40 42 37  -43 30  0  -40 42 37  -43 30  0
    177  0  0   -42  8 34   13 50 22    26   231   -62  -40 43 32  -43 30 54  -40 43 32  -43 30 54

    178  0  0   -42  8 14   13 50 17    25   230   -61  -40 43  9  -43 30 38  -40 43  9  -43 30 38
    179  0  0   -42  6 41   13 50 12    25   230   -61  -40 41 28  -43 29 12  -40 41 28  -43 29 12
    180  0  0   -42  3 54   13 50  7    24   229   -60  -40 38 29  -43 26 35  -40 38 29  -43 26 35

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.

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