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Updated: 2006 FEB 03, 23:02 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Feb 11 UT, the 210 km diameter asteroid (9) Metis will occult a 9.7 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across New Zealand's North Island and the extreme north of the South Island. The shadow then crosses Australia passing directly over Brisbane, the Gold Coast region and Alice Springs. The northern limit of the relatively well defined path runs approximately near Rockhampton and Tennant Creek. The southern limit runs near Grafton and Birdsville.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by a relatively small 0.7 mag to 9.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for as long as 24.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
179 47 30 -44 0 0 12 36 27 29 24 -32 -177 10 48 176 37 16 -176 24 45 175 46 12
178 42 24 -43 0 0 12 36 41 30 25 -33 -178 16 3 175 32 3 -177 30 5 174 40 52
177 35 24 -42 0 0 12 36 57 30 27 -34 -179 22 56 174 24 34 -178 36 59 173 33 12
176 26 21 -41 0 0 12 37 13 31 28 -35 179 28 26 173 14 42 -179 45 34 172 23 2
175 15 8 -40 0 0 12 37 29 31 29 -36 178 17 56 172 2 16 179 4 3 171 10 11
174 1 34 -39 0 0 12 37 46 32 31 -37 177 5 26 170 47 6 177 51 46 169 54 28
172 45 30 -38 0 0 12 38 3 32 32 -38 175 50 47 169 28 56 176 37 24 168 35 38
171 26 41 -37 0 0 12 38 22 32 34 -39 174 33 49 168 7 31 175 20 49 167 13 22
170 4 54 -36 0 0 12 38 40 33 36 -40 173 14 19 166 42 32 174 1 48 165 47 21
168 39 51 -35 0 0 12 39 0 33 37 -41 171 52 4 165 13 34 172 40 9 164 17 7
167 11 10 -34 0 0 12 39 20 33 39 -42 170 26 48 163 40 9 171 15 36 162 42 10
165 38 27 -33 0 0 12 39 40 33 41 -43 168 58 12 162 1 40 169 47 52 161 1 48
164 1 10 -32 0 0 12 40 2 33 43 -43 167 25 52 160 17 22 168 16 35 159 15 10
162 18 41 -31 0 0 12 40 24 32 45 -44 165 49 22 158 26 14 166 41 21 157 21 9
160 30 9 -30 0 0 12 40 47 32 47 -44 164 8 7 156 26 57 165 1 37 155 18 10
158 34 31 -29 0 0 12 41 11 32 49 -45 162 21 25 154 17 38 163 16 46 153 4 1
156 30 18 -28 0 0 12 41 36 31 51 -45 160 28 22 151 55 33 161 25 59 150 35 17
155 0 0 -27 19 14 12 41 54 30 52 -45 -25 26 11 -29 19 5 -24 57 46 -29 51 33
154 0 0 -26 53 27 12 42 5 30 53 -45 -25 1 20 -28 52 13 -24 33 7 -29 24 21
153 0 0 -26 28 43 12 42 17 29 54 -45 -24 37 27 -28 26 27 -24 9 27 -28 58 18
152 0 0 -26 5 1 12 42 28 29 55 -45 -24 14 34 -28 1 47 -23 46 45 -28 33 21
151 0 0 -25 42 21 12 42 39 29 56 -45 -23 52 40 -27 38 13 -23 25 1 -28 9 30
150 0 0 -25 20 42 12 42 49 28 57 -45 -23 31 44 -27 15 43 -23 4 16 -27 46 45
149 0 0 -25 0 4 12 43 0 27 58 -45 -23 11 47 -26 54 17 -22 44 28 -27 25 6
148 0 0 -24 40 27 12 43 10 27 58 -45 -22 52 48 -26 33 55 -22 25 38 -27 4 31
147 0 0 -24 21 51 12 43 20 26 59 -44 -22 34 47 -26 14 37 -22 7 46 -26 45 1
146 0 0 -24 4 15 12 43 30 26 60 -44 -22 17 44 -25 56 23 -21 50 51 -26 26 35
145 0 0 -23 47 39 12 43 39 25 61 -44 -22 1 39 -25 39 11 -21 34 53 -26 9 13
144 0 0 -23 32 3 12 43 49 24 61 -43 -21 46 31 -25 23 2 -21 19 52 -25 52 54
143 0 0 -23 17 27 12 43 58 24 62 -43 -21 32 21 -25 7 55 -21 5 49 -25 37 39
142 0 0 -23 3 51 12 44 7 23 63 -42 -21 19 9 -24 53 51 -20 52 42 -25 23 27
141 0 0 -22 51 14 12 44 15 22 63 -42 -21 6 54 -24 40 49 -20 40 32 -25 10 17
140 0 0 -22 39 37 12 44 23 22 64 -42 -20 55 37 -24 28 49 -20 29 19 -24 58 11
139 0 0 -22 28 59 12 44 31 21 64 -41 -20 45 16 -24 17 51 -20 19 3 -24 47 7
138 0 0 -22 19 21 12 44 39 20 65 -41 -20 35 53 -24 7 55 -20 9 44 -24 37 6
137 0 0 -22 10 42 12 44 47 19 65 -40 -20 27 28 -23 59 1 -20 1 22 -24 28 7
136 0 0 -22 3 3 12 44 54 19 66 -39 -20 20 0 -23 51 8 -19 53 56 -24 20 11
135 0 0 -21 56 23 12 45 1 18 66 -39 -20 13 29 -23 44 18 -19 47 28 -24 13 17
134 0 0 -21 50 43 12 45 7 17 67 -38 -20 7 56 -23 38 29 -19 41 56 -24 7 26
133 0 0 -21 46 2 12 45 14 16 67 -38 -20 3 21 -23 33 42 -19 37 22 -24 2 37
132 0 0 -21 42 21 12 45 20 16 68 -37 -19 59 43 -23 29 57 -19 33 45 -23 58 51
131 0 0 -21 39 40 12 45 25 15 68 -36 -19 57 3 -23 27 15 -19 31 6 -23 56 8
130 0 0 -21 37 59 12 45 31 14 69 -35 -19 55 22 -23 25 35 -19 29 24 -23 54 29
129 0 0 -21 37 18 12 45 36 13 69 -35 -19 54 38 -23 24 57 -19 28 40 -23 53 52
128 0 0 -21 37 38 12 45 41 12 70 -34 -19 54 53 -23 25 23 -19 28 54 -23 54 19
127 0 0 -21 38 59 12 45 45 11 70 -33 -19 56 7 -23 26 51 -19 30 6 -23 55 50
126 0 0 -21 41 21 12 45 49 10 71 -32 -19 58 20 -23 29 23 -19 32 17 -23 58 25
125 0 0 -21 44 44 12 45 53 10 71 -32 -20 1 32 -23 32 59 -19 35 26 -24 2 4
124 0 0 -21 49 8 12 45 57 9 71 -31 -20 5 43 -23 37 39 -19 39 34 -24 6 48
123 0 0 -21 54 35 12 46 0 8 72 -30 -20 10 55 -23 43 23 -19 44 42 -24 12 38
122 0 0 -22 1 4 12 46 3 7 72 -29 -20 17 6 -23 50 13 -19 50 50 -24 19 33
121 0 0 -22 8 36 12 46 5 6 73 -28 -20 24 19 -23 58 7 .. .. .. -24 27 34
120 0 0 -22 17 12 12 46 7 5 73 -28 .. .. .. -24 7 8 .. .. .. -24 36 43
119 0 0 -22 26 51 12 46 9 4 73 -27 .. .. .. -24 17 16 .. .. .. -24 46 58
118 0 0 -22 37 34 12 46 11 3 74 -26 .. .. .. -24 28 30 .. .. .. -24 58 22
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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