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Updated: 2019 Jul 21, 06:43 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Oct 14 UT, the 102 km diameter asteroid (387) Aquitania will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a path across northern West Australia, Northern Territory, south-western Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and New Zealand, passing over Derby, Tennant Creek, Forster, Port Macquarie and Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.57 mag to 13.21 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-489-025151 by 387 Aquitania on 2019 Oct 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
167 38 31 -47 0 0 16 30 23 33 23 -14 166 23 18 168 52 46 166 1 1 169 14 22 1.24
166 46 17 -46 0 0 16 30 5 33 24 -15 165 31 44 167 59 50 165 9 39 168 21 14 1.24
165 53 20 -45 0 0 16 29 46 34 26 -16 164 39 22 167 6 17 164 17 27 167 27 30 1.25
164 59 38 -44 0 0 16 29 27 35 27 -18 163 46 8 166 12 3 163 24 21 166 33 7 1.25
164 5 5 -43 0 0 16 29 8 35 29 -19 162 51 59 165 17 5 162 30 19 165 38 2 1.25
163 9 38 -42 0 0 16 28 48 36 30 -20 161 56 50 164 21 18 161 35 14 164 42 8 1.25
162 13 11 -41 0 0 16 28 27 36 32 -21 161 0 35 163 24 38 160 39 3 163 45 23 1.26
161 15 41 -40 0 0 16 28 6 37 33 -22 160 3 11 162 26 58 159 41 40 162 47 41 1.26
160 17 1 -39 0 0 16 27 45 37 35 -23 159 4 31 161 28 16 158 43 0 161 48 57 1.26
159 17 6 -38 0 0 16 27 23 37 37 -25 158 4 30 160 28 23 157 42 56 160 49 4 1.27
158 15 48 -37 0 0 16 27 1 37 38 -26 157 2 59 159 27 15 156 41 21 159 47 58 1.27
157 13 1 -36 0 0 16 26 38 38 40 -27 155 59 52 158 24 44 155 38 7 158 45 31 1.27
156 8 37 -35 0 0 16 26 15 38 42 -29 154 55 0 157 20 43 154 33 5 157 41 36 1.28
155 2 26 -34 0 0 16 25 51 38 43 -30 153 48 12 156 15 3 153 26 6 156 36 4 1.28
153 54 18 -33 0 0 16 25 26 38 45 -32 152 39 19 155 7 34 152 16 58 155 28 46 1.28
152 44 1 -32 0 0 16 25 1 38 47 -33 151 28 6 153 58 7 151 5 28 154 19 32 1.29
151 31 23 -31 0 0 16 24 36 38 49 -34 150 14 20 152 46 28 149 51 20 153 8 9 1.29
150 16 7 -30 0 0 16 24 10 37 51 -36 148 57 43 151 32 24 148 34 17 151 54 24 1.30
148 57 56 -29 0 0 16 23 44 37 53 -38 147 37 55 150 15 38 147 13 57 150 38 2 1.30
147 36 28 -28 0 0 16 23 17 37 54 -39 146 14 31 148 55 52 145 49 56 149 18 43 1.31
146 11 17 -27 0 0 16 22 49 36 56 -41 144 47 1 147 32 42 144 21 41 147 56 5 1.31
144 41 52 -26 0 0 16 22 21 35 58 -43 143 14 49 146 5 41 142 48 36 146 29 43 1.31
143 7 33 -25 0 0 16 21 52 35 60 -44 141 37 9 144 34 16 141 9 50 144 59 5 1.32
141 27 31 -24 0 0 16 21 22 34 62 -46 139 53 0 142 57 45 139 24 21 143 23 30 1.32
139 40 41 -23 0 0 16 20 52 33 64 -48 138 1 2 141 15 14 137 30 41 141 42 7 1.33
137 45 36 -22 0 0 16 20 21 31 66 -50 135 59 24 139 25 33 135 26 51 139 53 51 1.34
135 40 13 -21 0 0 16 19 48 30 67 -52 133 45 21 137 27 7 133 9 50 137 57 13 1.34
134 0 0 -20 16 0 16 19 24 28 69 -54 -21 6 15 -19 26 46 -21 21 12 -19 12 30 1.34
133 0 0 -19 51 18 16 19 10 28 70 -55 -20 41 8 -19 2 28 -20 55 57 -18 48 19 1.33
132 0 0 -19 27 50 16 18 57 27 70 -56 -20 17 15 -18 39 23 -20 31 57 -18 25 21 1.33
131 0 0 -19 5 34 16 18 43 26 71 -57 -19 54 36 -18 17 29 -20 9 11 -18 3 33 1.33
130 0 0 -18 44 30 16 18 31 25 72 -58 -19 33 11 -17 56 46 -19 47 39 -17 42 55 1.33
129 0 0 -18 24 37 16 18 19 24 72 -59 -19 12 57 -17 37 12 -19 27 19 -17 23 27 1.33
128 0 0 -18 5 55 16 18 7 24 73 -59 -18 53 55 -17 18 48 -19 8 11 -17 5 8 1.33
127 0 0 -17 48 22 16 17 56 23 73 -60 -18 36 4 -17 1 32 -18 50 15 -16 47 57 1.33
126 0 0 -17 31 58 16 17 45 22 74 -61 -18 19 24 -16 45 25 -18 33 29 -16 31 54 1.33
125 0 0 -17 16 43 16 17 35 21 74 -62 -18 3 52 -16 30 24 -18 17 53 -16 16 58 1.33
124 0 0 -17 2 34 16 17 25 20 75 -62 -17 49 29 -16 16 30 -18 3 25 -16 3 8 1.33
123 0 0 -16 49 33 16 17 15 19 75 -63 -17 36 14 -16 3 42 -17 50 6 -15 50 23 1.33
122 0 0 -16 37 39 16 17 6 18 76 -63 -17 24 7 -15 51 59 -17 37 55 -15 38 44 1.34
121 0 0 -16 26 50 16 16 58 17 76 -64 -17 13 6 -15 41 22 -17 26 51 -15 28 10 1.34
120 0 0 -16 17 6 16 16 50 16 77 -64 -17 3 12 -15 31 48 -17 16 53 -15 18 39 1.34
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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